Farmers Insurance Open: PGA Expert Picks at Torrey Pines

This week, the PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. 

Current golf odds at BetMGM have Xander Schauffele (+1600) as the pre-tournament favorite. Oddsmakers price seven players at +2800 or shorter to win, including Ludvig Aberg (+1800). 

This week, golfers play Torrey Pines (South) and Torrey Pines (North) on the first two days. After a 36-hole cut, the remaining field closes with two additional rounds on the South course. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Farmers Insurance Open

Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)

Matsuyama’s success this week basically comes down to the putter. 

His approach play took a positive turn at the Sony, where he finished seventh in SG: APP. In a limited sample, Matsuyama ranks 12th in the field in SG: APP over his last four rounds. 

Comparatively, he ranked 74th and 76th over the last eight and 12 rounds. 

The Masters champion also owns one of the most comprehensively positive records at the Farmers. Since 2018, he finished 13th or better four times in eight starts. 

That timeframe includes a T-3rd in 2019 and a T-9th in 2023. Over the last three years, only two players have gained more strokes at Torrey Pines South. 

A positive flat-stick performance is unknown. However, he recorded a net positive record on Poa over his last 12 months. Over the last five years, Matsuyama’s best surface is Poa.  

That’s enough for me to believe the price has drifted too much on Matsuyama this week. 

Max Homa (+4500)

I have convinced myself that, at the bare minimum, Homa will outperform his market expectation. 

Homa, a winner at the Farmers in 2022, posted elite iron play at the Amex. Over his two measured rounds, he gained +1.45 strokes per round on approach. 

Albeit in a small sample size, that marks his best output with his irons since last July. Now he goes to a course where he owns four top-20s, including a victory, in his last six Farmers. 

Plus, the short game has seen massive improvement of late. Over his last 50 measured rounds, Homa ranks 121st in SG: ARG. Over his previous 12 rounds: 23rd in the field. 

Homa, a California native, has simultaneously posted brilliant putting metrics on Poa greens. His +0.47 strokes gained per round over the last five years is his best output by surface. 

Pair all of those improvements with his record at this event, and I like the price on Homa to contend. 

Nicolai Hojgaard (+5000)

Hojgaard finished as the runner-up in his lone appearance at the Farmers (2024). By PGA Tour standards, that finish marks his best result. 

He travels from Dubai to San Diego, where he finished T-4th on the DP World Tour. 

In Dubai, he ranked third in SG: OTT, 36th in SG: APP and 10th in SG: Putting for the event. That placement marks his fourth top-five finish on the DP World Tour since mid-July (10 starts). 

Even excluding his DP World Tour results, Hojgaard posted strong metrics of late. He ranks fifth in SG: APP over his last 20 rounds, up from 9th over his last 100 and 50 rounds. 

Like Homa, Hojgaard posted good putting metrics on Poa greens. His +0.39 strokes gained per round – albeit in a 10-round sample – renders Poa his best putting surface. 

Given those factors, I find his 50-1 price intriguing in a relatively balanced field. 

Sam Ryder (+17500)

Is Ryder going to win at Torrey Pines? Probably not. But his recent ball-striking and record at this event renders him worth a flier. 

Ryder finished T-4th at the 2023 Farmers. In his last five starts at this event: 25-MC-4-MC-10. 

He joins the field after Michael Kim withdrew, so he’s already flying under the radar. Last week at the American Express, Ryder finished T-27th. 

In two measured rounds, Ryder gained +1.78 strokes per round on approach. It marks the second straight event he gained at least +1.2. 

Ryder could implode here based on his ARG record. Over that same span, he lost at least -0.9 strokes per round around the green. 

But if the irons continue to work, Ryder offers spike putting potential. In his last 20 rounds on Poa, Ryder ranks sixth in SG: Putting and fourth in three-putt avoidance. 

All of those factors render Ryder a decent bomb at 0.5% implied win equity.