Farmers Insurance Open Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

For almost every professional golfer, success in this game is cyclical. The highs and lows, the ups and downs, the ebbs and flows.

Some need a little momentum to reach their personal peak, others can find it without notice – only to have it immediately reverse course.

The goal, of course, is to ensure the highs are high enough and outnumber the lows, which are hopefully limited. That ability is often what separates the best from everybody else.

Think of it like a roller coaster: You can’t go up without coming back down at some point.

Unless you’re Scottie Scheffler, that is. To mangle the analogy, the world’s top-ranked player apparently owns a Fast Pass that allows him to continue cruising toward higher elevations.

The point here isn’t to wax poetic over Scottie – I’ll do that in a separate column this week – but to understand how to (try to) analyze these ups and downs as bettors.

There’s a reason why I often refer to wagers in these previews as “investments,” and that’s because the way we create our betting portfolio should essentially mirror other financial ventures.

In other words: Buy low, sell high.

That’s exactly what I’m looking to do at this week’s Farmers Insurance Open. There aren’t many secrets about playing well at Torrey Pines – the occasional Brandt Snedeker notwithstanding, we’re largely looking for big-hitting ball-strikers to crush it from tee to green and perhaps get a little lucky on the poa annua surfaces.

I’ll start my card this week with a pair of recommendations on talented players who haven’t been at their best recently, but are possibly about to ride that roller coaster to the top.

Farmers Insurance Open Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Max Homa (+4500)

Three years ago, Homa won this tournament by two strokes over Keegan Bradley. It was his sixth PGA Tour title in less than four years, and presumably more were soon on their way. Instead, he spent the remainder of that season enjoying an unconditionally high floor without reaching that ceiling again, posting two more top-fives, 10 more top-10s and 13 more top-25s to cement his place as a top-10 player in the world. 

Things didn’t exactly come crashing down the next season, but his results paled in comparison, as he posted just a single top-five (though it was a T-3 at the Masters) and three top-10s. The real issues came last year, when Homa finished outside the top-100 in the FedEx Cup standings. 

Remember what I said about those ebbs and flows in the intro above? Well, he’s shown signs of coming out of that funk, placing in the top-20 in three of his last four starts last year and opening this season with a T-27 at The AmEx last week. 

Perhaps he’s not quite at the point where he’s ready to win, but again, I recommend buying low on investments and this one makes sense at the current price, considering he owns that victory and three other top-20 finishes at Torrey in his past six starts.

Aggressive Pick: Sahith Theegala (+6000)

If you’ll recall, I listed Theegala in this exact spot in last week’s preview, and while even his best stuff might not have been enough to overcome Scheffler, a T-8 result shows he’s moving in the right direction. 

I’m going back to him at this one for all of the same reasons I liked him last week – as a California native, he tends to play some of his best golf on the West Coast and after returning from last year’s neck injury, he remains undervalued in the market. (Although this week’s number is significantly cut down from that of last week.) 

In four starts at the Farmers, he’s made the cut each time with a best finish of T-4 three years ago. I don’t think it’s such a hot take to suggest he’s either playing better golf right now than he was then or is on the verge of it.

Farmers Insurance Open Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Xander Schauffele (+280)

Here’s a quick bit of trivia for you: Where did Schauffele finish in his most recent start? If you said he won, congratulations on clearly remembering the Baycurrent Classic, which took place 16 weeks ago. It’s been a lengthy offseason for Xander, and by no means am I suggesting that he’ll carry some momentum from that victory. 

What I am hinting at here is that his 2025 season probably wasn’t nearly as poor as you might recall. It was never going to be easy chasing his two-major campaign of the previous year, but an injury which cost him two months at this time last year undeniably set him back. 

While he didn’t win again until the Baycurrent, his final 13 starts of the year did result in four top-10s and 10 top-25s, all of which suggest he could be primed for a big “comeback” performance this season, even if there’s not a ton to come back from. It took him a while to get comfortable at his hometown event, missing the cut in four of his first five starts here, but he’s ramped things up in recent years, with results of 13th or better in three of the last four. 

If he’d played anywhere even somewhat recently, I might be listing him for an outright this week; instead, it’s “only” a top-five, as I expect Schauffele to come out firing against a somewhat tepid field at a place which suits his game perfectly.

Aggressive Pick: Taylor Pendrith (+700) and Sam Stevens (+750)

Two for the price of one here, as I didn’t want to choose between a pair of players with both recent form and course history on their resumes. Let’s start with Pendrith, who opened his season with a T-6 at the Sony Open before missing last week’s cut. 

I always think it’s an exceptionally good sign when a player fares well on a course which doesn’t necessarily suit his skill-set, which is why I think there’s room for improvement on what he did at Waialae against what he could do this week at a place that suits him much better. As evidence, the big hitter has finished 16th or better in three of his last four starts here, including a seventh-place result last year. 

As for Stevens, he was the runner-up to Harris English a year ago and just happens to be coming off a T-6 last week, offering that perfect intersection of history and form that we’re seeking. I’d expect this play to be very popular, but for good reason. My only recommendation on Stevens wagers – from outrights down the line – are to get ‘em early this week, as I could see his price getting driven down by Thursday morning.

Farmers Insurance Open Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jason Day (+275)

From one potentially popular play to another, as the same rationale exists for Day here. Fresh off a tie for second place that included the best score in Sunday’s final round, he now heads to a place where he’s won twice and has five career top-fives and seven top-10s. 

I’d expect plenty of bettors to get a piece of his 28/1 price in the outright market and while I obviously don’t think that’s an improbability, I’d rather chase the high floor of a former No. 1-ranked player who hasn’t won in nearly three full years.

Aggressive Pick: Rasmus Hojgaard (+400)

At least, I think I like Rasmus here. Might be his twin brother Nicolai, though. Even though I’m slightly more bullish long-term on the latter, I’ll officially go with the former here, for the sole reason that he was competing on the PGA Tour last week while the other was in Dubai on the DP World Tour. 

They should each fit this venue nicely, though, and you know my general rule: If you’re betting one Hojgaard, you might as well bet ‘em both. And hey, since they’re identical anyway, maybe the full Hojgaard parlay is in play for this market.

Farmers Insurance Open Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Maverick McNealy (+138)

I’m a big fan of researching your plays and doing your due diligence, but simply having a good memory can often be a massive benefit. If you looked up what McNealy did at this tournament last year, you’d be nonplussed at a T-52 that barely left an impression. 

As you might recall, though, just three weeks later the Genesis Invitational made a one-year detour to Torrey Pines in very similar conditions as it was for the Farmers and McNealy finished runner-up to Ludvig Aberg, thanks to a final-round 64. For the first few years of his PGA Tour career, I often looked at Mav as sort of this generation’s Charles Howell III, which I meant as a compliment – both players had shown a consistently high floor. 

McNealy has proven more of a ceiling since then, as evidenced by that runner-up last year and his lone win at the end of 2024, but he remains more of a floor play for me, considering seven of his last 10 results have been between 13th and 30th, including a T-24 in his only start so far this year at the Sony Open.

Aggressive Pick: Pierceson Coody (+225)

Yet another repeat name from last week’s preview, as I see no reason to stop playing Coody anytime soon. Following a T-13 at the Sony and T-18 at The AmEx, I’m going to pick him here for a third straight top-20, but his offensive firepower also makes him an elite mid-tier target in the outright market, where he’s currently listed at 55/1. 

There’s going to be a time very soon when we wish we could still get him for this kind of value against these kinds of fields.

Farmers Insurance Open Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Tony Finau (+150)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. There isn’t another player at another tourney I’ve picked more over the past decade than Finau at the Farmers, as I believe I’ve gone 10-for-the-last-10 in picking him to win here. My reward has been just about everything but a cashed ticket, as he’s posted a runner-up, two top-fives and six top-10s, but no wins. 

For the first time in a long time, I don’t expect that to change this week, as he’s clearly playing the worst golf of his career, without a top-40 since last year’s U.S. Open and now outside the top-100 in the OWGR. So, why pick him for anything this week? My thought process is that if he’s going to play well anywhere, it’ll be at a place where he’s had success in the past. 

If it doesn’t happen for him this week, it could be a long road back to the leaderboard for Finau, though I will say that I expect to have him as a longer-priced outright option again someday, not unlike Homa and Theegala this week.

Aggressive Pick: Gary Woodland (+175)

The 2019 U.S. Open champion has played a ton of golf at Torrey Pines and while it’s rarely been great, it’s usually decent enough. He’s made 15 career starts here and owns seven top-40s. Even though he’s gone MC-72nd in two starts this year, I feel about the same way in regard to Woodland here as I feel about Finau: He gives us a nice number at a place where his game should thrive, if it’s going to thrive anywhere.