FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

If the PGA Tour regular season is the proverbial marathon instead of a sprint, then the FedEx Cup playoffs should be a furious race to the very profitable finish line.

Should be.

It’s not as if the biggest superstars haven’t shown up for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the annual start to the three-event playoff format, but the limited-field nature of this tournament might have us believing that only the best of the best can – or should – win.

Instead, the key to picking a winner since this one moved to Memphis four years ago has been identifying the hot hand rather than chasing the top of the board, as shown by their pre-tournament odds:

That’s an average price of 50/1 for the last four winners of the FedEx St. Jude, which feels like a hefty number considering the 70-man field (actually, 69 this week).

What it suggests is that while the most elite-level players will never turn down another trophy for the mantle, they largely see the playoff opener as a stepping stone toward bigger and potentially better things two weeks down the line.

Scottie Scheffler, for example, owns a keen understanding that with a victory this week, he’ll move from No. 1 in the standings to… No. 1. That doesn’t mean he’s averse to winning – especially in a season when wins have been so tough to come by – but he does know that finishing on top this week won’t do a whole lot for the greater good.

It’s a bit apples and oranges, but at the time I’m writing this, the back-to-back World Series-winning Los Angeles Dodgers have a 7.5-game lead in the National League West, but are just 2-8 in their last 10 games. Same vibes. They’ll win when it matters more.

None of which will stop me from playing a guy with short odds who hasn’t won in a while – no, it’s not Scheffler – in the outright market, but I do think there’s some value in taking some swings further down the board.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Sam Burns (+2000)

I’ve long believed it would be a fun project to poll golf bettors about how – and more importantly, when – they start thinking about specific wagers for non-major events. Consider that notion yourself.

Do you write down certain bets weeks or even months ahead of time? If so, do you always stick with those plays or will factors such as form, conditions and/or competition contribute to alterations on the final card? Or do you prefer to simply take each event as it comes, only beginning your research during the given week, once the field is set and the odds are posted?

I don’t think there’s any right or wrong answers to these questions, but I’m the type who largely wants all possible information before locking in any decisions. Even for the majors, with odds posted throughout the year, I’m reluctant to make too many futures bets, unless the price is too good to pass up. Every November or December, I’ll get asked for a Masters pick nearly six months out and will always answer that question with a few of my own.

Who’s in form coming into the week? What is the weather forecast? How is the course playing? I bring all of this up in this specific section because unlike my usual prognostication machinations, I’ve had Burns in mind at this one for at least a month, maybe two.

It’s hardly a pick out of left field: He’s been very close throughout the year, especially at big events, posting top-seven finishes in three of the four majors and top-threes in each of the last two. Over his past half-dozen starts, Burns’ ball-striking has been through the roof, which is a terrific complement to a putter which is always amongst the best. And in Memphis, the record isn’t unblemished, but he did post a T-5 two years ago and has 10 sub-70 rounds in his last 16.

That’s the good news, but it’s not all good news. As mentioned above, Burns hasn’t won since the now-defunct Match Play event in 2023 and hasn’t won a stroke-play title since May of the previous year. His odds this week are laughably short for a player who doesn’t often win – shorter even than guys with multiple victories this season alone, such as Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Chris Gotterup and Wyndham Clark.

All of which makes him a ridiculous selection in this market, except for the fact that I’ve long believed this is a really nice spot for him to make that return to the winner’s circle. He doesn’t quite fit the narrative I outlined in the above intro, though there are some notable parallels to the first winner of a playoff event in Memphis, as Zalatoris owned the same odds despite having never won before, then ball-struck his way to victory here. I see the same conclusion for Burns, though he won’t need an outlier performance on the greens, because his baseline is already so high.

Aggressive Pick: Rickie Fowler (+5000)

Boy, if you hated Burns and his four-year stroke-play winless streak at 20/1 odds, then you’re really going to detest the idea of Fowler and his one win this decade at a mere 50/1! If the Burns pick really only fit with the first of those last four winners in Memphis, then the Fowler play is in concert with the three most recent – a veteran player who’s entering the week in solid form and might have more reason for motivation than some of his more accomplished peers.

As someone who’s covered Rickie’s entire career, I’m not sure if it’s more inconceivable that he still has just a half-dozen career victories or that he’s somehow an elder statesman at the age of 37. I won’t insist that he’s underachieved in his career, though it’s impossible to deny that his production hasn’t equaled his hype, which is less his fault than those who’ve marketed him for the past two decades.

He’s gotten a reputation as some brash personality – perhaps just because he wears orange on Sundays? – but the reality is that he’s as humble as they come on the highest level and works a lot harder at his craft than most others might if they were getting paid to light up your TV screen during each commercial break. The window for Fowler to win a long-elusive major championship is closing a bit more every year, but I fully believe he’s got a few more PGA Tour victories in him, and it might be a few more at some bigger events.

He was T-6 at this one last year and he’s been good lately, with three consecutive results of 18th or better. Again, he fits the narrative that we’ve seen from Glover, Matsuyama and Rose, and while Fowler isn’t a major winner like those three, he’s a veteran in solid form with plenty of motivation to play his best golf this week.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Xander Schauffele (+320)

This was Schauffele prior to his most recent start two weeks ago at the Rocket Classic: “It’s been a bit tricky for me in general with my game. A little too technical, a little too much golf swing. … Not to be negative, but it’s been a work in progress, I think, for the last couple years.”

And this was Schauffele after he finished runner-up that week: “I feel good. You know, I fell short, but I played well. … I’m trying to be free and if I hit loose shots, I hit loose shots, but feel free when I’m swinging and I think we did a pretty good job of that.” It appears Xander’s first journey to Detroit was exactly what he wanted it to be – an opportunity to find some feel in his swing and gain a little momentum heading into the playoff stretch.

That might be all it takes for one of the game’s best players who’s been on the verge of playing really well over the past few months, but hadn’t quite gotten there until a few weeks ago. He’s yet another conservative play at a short price in this market, but there’s reason to believe that one of the runner-up finishers here from two years ago should be primed to keep it going.

Aggressive Pick: Corey Conners (+1400)

Let’s go back to that list of recent winners in Memphis. Of all the commonalities I’ve listed already, the one which really ties them together is the fact that they’re all elite-level iron players who – how can we say this nicely? – don’t always putt as well as we think they should. OK, maybe that’s too nice.

In any case, Conners certainly fits the profile and might be the annual answer to the question: Which PGA Tour player has the greatest discrepancy between his approach play and his putting? The former has been its usual high level, better than field average in five of his last six starts, but it’s the latter which has been peculiarly improved, posting a positive strokes gained number in each of his last five.

That’s enough to get me cautiously excited about the Canadian this week. If guys such as Zalatoris and Glover can win at TPC Southwind, then Conners can certainly contend, as well.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+225)

Look only at the results and we can reconcile that Aberg’s season has largely been an unsuccessful one from that perspective in much the same way we can maintain a similar idea about Scheffler. If we prefer to only judge the most elite players on their victory totals, then each of them has failed in a way, with Scottie’s mid-January win the only one between the two of them.

Of course, we have ways to measure performance which don’t rely solely on results and SG: Total shows us that Scheffler remains first in that category and Aberg is sixth – a far cry from the idea that he’s played poorly this season. The greatest truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle, meaning that Aberg hasn’t been nearly as fruitless as his title contentions might suggest, but he’s flamed out in a few high-pressure situations that aren’t reflected in the performance data.

Well, that helps explain why I’m listing him as a top-10 play here instead of an outright. I love the idea of continually banking on his floor until we see the ceiling potential. Though he’s only posted one top-10 in his last six starts, he does have seven in his last 13 and was T-9 here a year ago, meaning there’s value in this finishing position play.

Aggressive Pick: Si Woo Kim (+250)

I can pretty much just take everything I wrote in the above section for Aberg and do the copy/paste thing for Si Woo, except for the perception that I think we – the collective “we,” that is – own greater expectations for Aberg than we do for Si Woo, giving the latter a little bit of a free pass when he continually contends for titles without winning any of them.

I don’t know if that’s fair, or realistic, but I do know that Kim is another player who’s performed better this season than a few others with multiple wins, but it’s tough to put a “SG: Total top-five” certificate in the trophy case. As with Aberg, I’ll play the high floor here until otherwise alerted.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Kurt Kitayama (+175)

Let’s keep this performance-over-results theme going here, as Kitayama is an annual member of this roster. He ranks 31st in SG: Off the Tee, 12th in SG: Approach, 30th in SG: Total and 25th in driving distance for good measure – all numbers which would suggest that even with middling putting stats, he’d be contending for titles. Instead, it’s been another very-good-but-not-quite-great campaign from Quadzilla, whose best finish was a T-2 at the Genesis Invitational back in February and has three other top-10s and 10 top-25s in 19 starts.

Again, nothing wrong with any of that if we didn’t know the performance data, but with those numbers in mind, it almost feels a bit underwhelming. Don’t get me wrong: That’s more compliment than criticism, as I’d rather consistently back a player who does a lot of things really well than one who just happens to enjoy a few peak weeks. It does, though, have me playing the floor here, with top-20 being a nice assumption in this 69-man field.

Aggressive Pick: Jordan Smith (+250)

Oh, what the heck – give me all the floors this week. During a lengthy career on the DP World Tour, Smith earned a reputation as almost a poor man’s Tommy Fleetwood, which is to say, he didn’t win very much, but piled up plenty of solid results. That’s continued in his rookie campaign on the PGA Tour, as he owns just a single top-10 in 21 starts, but does have eight top-25s, including a T-14 last week in Greensboro.

FedEx St. Jude Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

He’s been one of my outright selections in each of the past two weeks and Matsuyama has responded with results of T-5 and T-7, now totaling five consecutive finishes of 14th or better. Perhaps all it takes for him to break through with a victory is me taking him off that outright card, so you’re welcome, Hideki, for only listing you as an FRL play this week.

In those last two events, he’s opened with rounds of 67 and 65 and in Memphis, he posted an opening 65 during his victory two years ago and a 67 the previous year. I won’t discredit his ability to win or at least contend again this week, but I really like him to get off to another hot start.

Aggressive Pick: Sahith Theegala (+6600)

Twice this season, Theegala has taken FRL honors – and I know this because I listed him for FRL plays at each of those events. I also know it because I clearly recall him being one of five at The Players and one of six at the RBC Canadian Open, chopping those winnings each time.

I nearly listed him for the same play at last week’s Wyndham Championship and thought I’d missed out on another win when he opened with a 62, only to watch Beau Hossler beat him by one. That said, there are too many bright neon arrows pointing in Theegala’s direction this week and I’ll go back to the old reliable play here, even if I suspect he’ll share this FRL with about 17 other players, based on what we’ve seen previously.