Genesis Invitational Betting: Using Numbers From Farmers Insurance Open To Help

Not since the early COVID-19 days, when the PGA Tour’s return to competition included back-to-back events at Muirfield Village, have we been offered such a unique preview of a venue prior to serving as tournament host like we’ll receive this week when the South Course at Torrey Pines holds the Genesis Invitational less than a month after hosting the Farmers Insurance Open.

If you’re scoring at home, it will be exactly 16 days in between the final round of that one and the opening round of this one.

I’m writing this preview on Monday afternoon, so the next 48 hours should help provide some insight into whether the rough is a little bit thicker than it was then or maybe the greens are running just a tad faster, but either way, it’s hard to believe that the South Course will look or feel much different.

All of this should mean we’ve already received some pretty strong clues as to what’s needed for success this week.

Let’s break down the numbers from the recent Farmers and see how they apply for this one.

• Harris English won that edition of the event, of course, gaining more than nine strokes on the field in three measured rounds at Torrey South. This venue is often seen as a place where long, straight hitters off the tee can get a serious leg up on the competition, but English proved that it’s not a prerequisite. In total, he lost a quarter-stroke per round with his driver, though the narrative isn’t without merit, as only four players inside the final top-20 lost strokes off the tee.

• So, what was English’s path to success? Iron play and putting. He ranked fourth among those who made the cut in SG: Approach and third in SG: Putting, which is a combination that works on most courses. It’s often said that a tournament winner is revealed as the best putter that week among the best ball-strikers and that was easily the case for English, as the only two players with better putting numbers lost strokes with their irons.

• According to Data Golf, the approach shot distribution during this year’s Farmers was very much aligned with PGA Tour averages over the past decade. There are nominally fewer shots from between 100-125 yards, 125-150 yards, 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards, with a greater percentage from 200-225 yards and over 225 yards, but that’s to be expected on a 7,600-plus yard golf course. These numbers suggest we might prefer optimal long- and mid-iron players over those who do more of their damage with wedges, but it’s not enough of an overall differential to impact our overall decision-making.

• If you’d rather some simpler analysis, there were 14 players who finished inside the top-10 at the Farmers. Of those 14, only five will return this week: English, Sam Stevens, Andrew Novak, Sungjae Im and Taylor Pendrith. The common statistical bond between them is that they all gained strokes both with their irons and around the greens.

• With that in mind, players inside the top-10 in SG: Approach who are competing this week include: Collin Morikawa (3rd), Scottie Scheffler (4th), Sepp Straka (5th), J.J. Spaun (7th), Nick Taylor (8th) and Hideki Matsuyama (10th). There are only three players inside the top-10 in SG: Around the Green who are playing this week: Min Woo Lee (4th), Justin Rose (5th) and Cam Davis (9th).

• If all this analysis sounds suspiciously like, “If you do everything well, you’ll have success at Torrey Pines,” well… that’s not far off. Of the top 24 players on the final leaderboard at the Farmers, 10 gained strokes in all four major statistical categories. Of the other 46 players to make the cut, there wasn’t a single player who accomplished this feat.

• There are only nine players in this week’s 72-man field who own positive strokes gained numbers in each of these four categories: Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Rasmus Hojgaard, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Andrew Novak, Sam Stevens and Will Zalatoris. It wouldn’t come as a surprise to see at least a few of these names on the Genesis leaderboard this Sunday afternoon.