Genesis Invitational Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Professional golfers are nothing like you and me.

OK, that’s not fair. I probably don’t even know you, so I shouldn’t lump you in with my own indisputable inadequacies.

Let me amend this: Professional golfers are nothing like me… and maybe you, if you, like me, fold like a cheap suit at the sign of the first raindrop on the back of your neck, melting like the Wicked Witch of the West as soon as you come into contact with the slightest bit of water.

Personally, I’d rather play in a four-club wind than a light drizzle, which I hope doesn’t make me sound as soft as I actually am.

The world’s best golfers, though, tend to love it when it rains. I’m not talking Bishop Pickering playing the best round of his life in a monsoon kind of rain, but enough to soften up the golf course and essentially turn it into target golf.

Sure, it probably doesn’t hurt when you’ve got someone beside you to dry off the grips and hold an umbrella over your head, but I’m continually amazed at how the pros are rarely fazed when being pelted by raindrops.

It’s all relevant because the season’s second signature event, the Genesis Invitational, will take place this week under overcast skies at Riviera Country Club.

The forecast for Pacific Palisades, Calif., shows a deluge in the days leading up to Thursday’s opener and at least a smattering of rain during each of the tournament rounds.

That would be enough to force me into a Jason Day-like late WD, especially with high temperatures expected to only reach the high-50s for the first round and barely hitting 70 by the final day.

Here’s the thing, though: That rain is forecasted to pair with very little wind, meaning Riv should play extra soft and eliminate the greatest variable to detract from scoring, as we witnessed at Pebble Beach last weekend.

We’ll see if the conditions lead to lower scores – or even if the all-time tournament scoring record of 20-under by Lanny Wadkins back in 1985 is threatened. This is perhaps the best course tee-to-green on the annual non-major PGA Tour schedule, but even the best courses are limited by whatever the weather conditions yield.

One thing remains certain: Whether it’s soft and wet or fast and firm, I’ll always target the best ball-strikers at Riv – and that’s where I’ll start this week’s selections.

Genesis Invitational Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Patrick Cantlay (+2500)

I’m back on Cantlay after selecting him last week, when he had another Very Patrick Performance — not enough to get himself into serious contention, but just enough to make us believe it could be coming soon.

He was outside the top-30 entering the final round, only to post a 7-under 65 in difficult conditions to finish in a share of 14th place. Now he heads to his hometown event, which has been the site of so many strong performances, especially in recent years.

Cantlay was solo third here in 2023, T-4 in 2024, and even finished T-5 last year at Torrey Pines, giving him a total of four top-fives and seven top-25s in 10 career starts. On a course where tee-to-green ball-striking is as important as anywhere on the PGA Tour, I love the idea of backing a player who was not only 12th in that category last week, but first in the field on Sunday, perhaps suggesting he’s trending in the right direction.

And yes, maybe this pick is influenced a bit by the win from Collin Morikawa, as Cantlay’s winless drought is more than a year longer, though just as curious. Here’s hoping that buoys Cantlay to an if-he-can-do-it-I-can-do-it type of attitude this week. 

Aggressive Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300)

It comes as a surprise that Fitzpatrick hasn’t fared better at Riv over the years. He not only enjoys tee-to-green venues, he tends to get a little more excited when the winning total isn’t 20-under par, which it hasn’t been at this event since Wadkins set that all-time record back in 1985.

Everything about this week always makes it feel like a mini-major, whether it’s designated as a “signature event” or not, and the Englishman often thrives in these types of environments. That said, his share of fifth place in 2021 remains his lone result better than 30th in five career appearances.

So, why pick him this week, especially when the outright number isn’t exactly screaming value? I’m basing a lot of this on his last two starts, where his ball-striking performances were very high-quality. In Phoenix, he finished solo ninth, ranking third in SG: Tee to Green and eighth in SG: Approach; at Pebble Beach, he was T-14, ranking sixth in SG: Tee to Green and third in SG: Approach.

Add in the fact that he won the DP World Tour Championship late last year and Fitz could be heading toward some very big things in the very near future, though it’ll most likely occur on a second-shot course. This week makes sense, as does the Arnold Palmer Invitational and – just maybe – the Masters. 

Genesis Invitational Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Scottie Scheffler/Rory McIlroy parlay (+450)

Over the last two weeks, it feels like Scheffler is playing some sort of insidious game with himself: Let’s see how far back I can be after the opening round and still win the tournament.

In Phoenix, he opened with 73 and lost by 1; at Pebble, he opened with 72 and lost by 2. On each of those occasions, he easily finished inside the top-five, all of which suggests that a Thursday where he doesn’t finish in the bottom half of the leaderboard should propel him to at least another top-five, if not a second victory of the season.

Meanwhile, Rory had his usual PGA Tour debut last week. The previous year’s win was an outlier, as McIlroy was back to making a ton of birdies and too many big mistakes in his first U.S. tourney since the Ryder Cup. He finished in a share of 14th place at Pebble, five shots back, while posting a triple-bogey and two doubles during the week.

I’d expect the same type of golf this week, only with better damage control, which should vault him to the first page of the leaderboard.

There’s not much value in either of these guys for top-fives at their individual prices, but put ‘em together, and they make a lot of sense.

Aggressive Pick: Adam Scott (+750)

For the past half-decade, I’ve been shocked at how much the now-45-year-old has continued to not only work on his game, but tee it up at lesser tourneys in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle at some point.

Many believed Scott was ripe for leaving to play on LIV Golf a few years ago, but I always saw him more as the type who’d go into recluse mode for months at a time, only to emerge for major championships and other events he fancied. Based on how much he’s put into his game, though, I firmly believe the Golf Gods will reward him with at least one (if not more) big victory.

There was some thought it might happen at last year’s U.S. Open, when he told me Saturday evening that all of the work he’s put into his game has been toward winning another major. That didn’t happen, but it very well could at what he’s called his favorite PGA Tour venue on the annual calendar.

Scott has won here twice, though his 2005 victory remains officially unofficial, due to the tournament being shortened to 36 holes. I’m not simply backing him here for sentimentality’s sake, though. For the season, Scott ranks 20th in tee-to-green performance – above the likes of Maverick McNealy, Min Woo Lee, Russell Henley and Akshay Bhatia.

That alone shows he’s still got what it takes to compete alongside the world’s best, especially on a course which suits him. This is a week which will absolutely have Scott’s attention, and could be the one toward which he’s been working for those past five years. 

Genesis Invitational Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+175)

Full disclosure: I wanted no part of Matsuyama last week after he was trying to hold things together with duct tape and band-aids at the WM Phoenix Open, eventually rinsing his tee shot on the first playoff hole to lose to Chris Gotterup.

That said, I was very impressed with how he bounced back from that defeat, finishing in a share of eighth place at Pebble with four rounds in the 60s. I still don’t fully trust Hideki to squeeze a tee shot into the fairway or make a 10-footer when he absolutely needs to do it, but I do think his game right now is good enough to plod his way around Riv for four days and beat 70 other players, especially at a place where he won two years ago and has two other top-fives and seven top-25s in 11 starts. 

Aggressive Pick: Jake Knapp (+275)

I feel the same way about Knapp as I did about Justin Rose and Si Woo Kim last week. Basically, everything is set up so well for him — red-hot form combined with an elite tee-to-green game on a ball-strikers’ course — that it almost seems too easy.

I used the term “trap game” last week, though I admittedly did so while also selecting Rose for a top-10 play, because everything felt so right (and because I didn’t listen to my own hunch), but he could only manage a T-37 result, while Kim was T-45. There’s definitely some caveat emptor in play here — and yet, I again just can’t look away after Knapp posted a fourth straight finish of 11th or better.

The intersection of course fit and recent form is too strong of a magnetic pull for me to ignore, but I will again remind you that all good things must come to an end at some point. Here’s hoping Knapp has one more week’s worth of gas left in that tank. 

Genesis Invitational Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Maverick McNealy (+110)

If you’re a member at a club or play your local muni on a regular basis, there’s invariably a blind spot somewhere that you never seem to remember after that fact. Whether it’s that tree on the left side of the seventh hole that always seems to attract your drive or that subtle break on the 16th green that you continually read incorrectly, some part of the course always bites back before you remember it.

I’ve got plenty of personal blind spots in betting, but playing McNealy’s ceiling is near the top of the list right now. I did it again last week and he played, well, just alright, finishing T-29 after yet another final-round disappointment.

I really like McNealy as a player and his stat profile suggests he’s ready to accomplish bigger and better things, but for the time being – if I remember, that is – he’s going to remain more of a floor play than a ceiling play. Give me a top-20 here, as last year’s runner-up at Torrey was preceded by a T-7 at Riv two years ago. 

Aggressive Pick: Wyndham Clark (+200)

The winner of the most recent major championship played in the Los Angeles area is indeed Clark, who captured the 2023 U.S. Open at LACC. That alone shouldn’t be enough to make us back him this week, but I am gaining more confidence in Clark from a betting perspective just slightly on a weekly basis.

He’s yet to match that season-opening T-13 at The AmEx, finishing outside the top-30 in his three most recent starts, but the approach play has been decent, which is a good sign for a guy who was known for the driver/putter combo earlier in his career. There’s still a ton of room for improvement here and unlike McNealy, whose ceiling I just mentioned above, we know that Clark’s best can win big-time events.

I don’t think he’s there yet, but with a decent number next to his name for a top-20, I like a bet that his progression takes another step forward this week. 

Genesis Invitational First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jordan Spieth (+5000)

Longtime readers of my previews know that I like targeting volatile players in the FRL market – and nobody is more volatile than Spieth right now. Last week at Pebble, he posted an eagle, 21 birdies, eight bogeys and a double, which was actually tame based on some of his recent scorecards.

What really has me chasing him in this market is that opening bogey-free 66 at Spyglass, when he perhaps just played golf instead of succumbing to whatever must be rattling around in his mind during the course of so many other rounds. I entered this year cautiously optimistic about Spieth over the long haul and have since upgraded my opinion to moderately optimistic, which is a trend that’s moving in the right direction.

In each of the last five editions of this event at Riv, it took at least 7-under 64 to claim FRL honors. Depending on the weather, that could change this week, though at first blush, I think these guys will go even lower than usual. Either way, I like the idea of sticking with Spieth as a single-round investment… for now. 

Aggressive Pick: Ryan Fox (+8000)

A two-time PGA Tour winner last year, Fox has a history of getting off to fast starts, posting a half-dozen openers of 67 or better last season. He started this year with a T-27 and T-45 in Dubai before a pair of T-24s here in the U.S., none of which screams that he’s on the verge of winning, but all of which shows he’s not exactly in poor form, either. I’ll stick with him here in the FRL market, hoping for another low one on Thursday, as he’s apt to do.