Golf Live Betting: Plays Following First Round of PGA Championship

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – The first PGA Championship that I ever covered was in 2004, when a new course called Whistling Straits was playing host for the first time. 

The prevailing theme at the beginning of that week was pain. Players groused about how difficult the conditions were. Some suggested the winning score would be around level-par. Others insisted it would be higher if the wind started blowing.

Spoiler alert: Vijay Singh won a three-man playoff after finishing the week at 8-under, while a total of three dozen players were in red figures.

Moral of the story: Oftentimes at majors, the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday narratives turn out to be misguided at best and completely wrong at worst, melting away once the competition actually begins.

All of which brings us to this week’s edition of the PGA Championship, where two main narratives flooded the discussions in days leading up to the opening round.

The first was that on an already beastly 7,626-yard Quail Hollow course which was deluged by rain earlier in the week, only the longest hitters would have a chance to contend for this title.

The second was that with so many elite-level players bringing their best stuff into this week, it was unlikely that a winner would come from anywhere other than that top tier.

Through one round, those narratives are already starting to appear foolish.

This leaderboard looks anything but major, with Jhonattan Vegas holding a two-stroke lead over Ryan Gerard and Cam Davis, while Luke Donald, Ryan Fox, Alex Smalley, Stephan Jaeger and Aaron Rai linger one shot further back.

That’s bound to change, just as this venue has evolved in the past few days. It played firmer and faster – at least on the greens – than it did during the practice rounds and I expect the rest of the course to similarly speed up with each passing day.

Before we get to some potential live plays after the first round, a few names who won’t be listed below:

• Scottie Scheffler posted a 2-under 69 and is very much in contention to win a third career major title, but at +350 – a point-and-a-half shorter than he was pre-tournament – that’s a red light for me.
• Rory McIlroy went in the other direction, posting an opening 74. His odds dropped to +2200, but even if we consider the actual lead to be 3-under instead of the 7-under that Vegas posted, I can’t in good faith offer up Rory at that price.
• Justin Thomas won the last (and only) time this tournament was held at Quail Hollow in 2017. He started slowly, caught fire, then cooled off in a hurry, shooting 73. At +5000, he’s at least worth a thought, but I’m not a buyer… yet.

As for those options I do like, let’s get right to ‘em.

Bryson DeChambeau (+1000)

Less than a week ago, DeChambeau was the third-favorite on this board at +1400, but his odds dropped all the way to +800 by the time this tournament began. If you liked Bryson pre-tourney, but didn’t pull the trigger before he moved to single-digits, you’re getting a bit of a sale price after he posted an opening-round even-par 71. Most of his struggles were around the greens, which doesn’t bother me as much as the other parts of his game, so I think he’s still a worthwhile buy, especially when considering his strong recent track at majors, which includes four top-six finishes in his last five starts.

Viktor Hovland (+2200)
For a brief, fleeting moment on Wednesday morning, I had an epiphany that Hovland was going to win this golf tournament. That feeling faded quickly, but I happened to make a few impulsive Hovland wagers during that moment. More than any other world-class player, Hovland has been a complete enigma this year — if not to the rest of us, then certainly to himself, as he’s publicly stated his frustrations with his own game. Even after winning the Valspar Championship, which came on the heels of three straight missed cuts, he sounded less than confident. So, why back him? Well, exactly that reason. He’s shown an ability to quickly find something out of nowhere and owns an upside that’s among the game’s best. After a 2-under 69, and with top-three results in this event in each of the past two years, he’s my favorite buy entering the second round.

Keegan Bradley (+4000)

I wrote up Bradley as a longshot outright in my pre-tournament preview and for those who didn’t jump on him at a triple-digit number, he’s still viable right now. The thing we collectively need to remember about betting winners is that second place is first loser and we don’t get bonus points for coming close. I’m looking for players with a big ceiling and the U.S. Ryder Cup captain has shown over the years that his best can beat everyone else’s best, having won a major, a WGC, a signature tournament and two FedEx Cup playoff events. In a year when he’s got one eye toward the upcoming festivities at Bethpage Black, there might be a little less internal pressure to play his best golf and that could lead to some big results.

Hideki Matsuyama (+8000)

This one is sort of a blind-click for me. Few players are known for going low in a hurry like Matsuyama, who’s won tournaments in the past when he was largely an afterthought in the betting markets. An opening 1-over 72 isn’t too much to get excited about, but he does have the advantage of playing in what should be a bit of an easier morning wave on Friday. When we’re simply boiling the process down to players who are good enough to win, not too far back and have an enticing number next to their name, Hideki checks all the right boxes.

Maverick McNealy (+10000)

We all understand that a player’s Official World Golf Ranking has been cheapened a bit, considering LIV Golf regulars don’t receive any points for those events, which therefore gives a bump to those who play the PGA Tour. Even so, McNealy’s ranking of 12th is impressive for a one-time winner and he’s only getting better. He also tends to play some of his best golf after seeing a course for a round or two, so I think there’s some equity here after he opened with a 72.

Nico Echavarria (+10000)
If Mito Pereira can coulda/shoulda/woulda win a PGA Championship just three years ago, then his fellow South American can make a run at this one. I’ve been really impressed with Echavarria’s game over the past year, though he remains one of the more underappreciated players on the PGA Tour. On Thursday, he led the field in approach play, gaining a massive six strokes, and he ranks fifth this season in putting. That’s a nice combination which could keep him in contention for three more days, especially if many of the game’s top players don’t start climbing this leaderboard.