Jason Sobel: 6 Potential Options for Open Championship Futures

Believe it or not, we’re only two weeks away from the year’s final major championship.

That’s just a fact, not a complaint, as I’m among what is perhaps the minority in liking the current schedule more than the previous one. My take: We get a few months of fun tournaments leading into The Players as an appetizer for the majors, then a streamlined run of four big ones over the next four months, culminating with the playoffs ending right before football season. There’s a better rhythm to the calendar than we had previously.

Anyway, love it or hate it, the last major is coming soon, with the world’s best golfers convening for The Open at Royal Birkdale for the first time since 2017.

Let’s take a look at six potential options in the futures market.

6 Potential Options for Open Championship Futures

Tommy Fleetwood (+1600)

When I’m writing previews such as this and offering up plays in the futures market, I’m cognizant of the fact that the whole point is to point out a discounted price that might not be available during tournament week. I don’t know that Fleetwood will get much shorter than 16/1, but two things could do it: Either he wins (or contends) at next week’s Scottish Open, or the general public jumps on the narrative that he’s heading back home to Birkdale, where he used to sneak on as a wee lad.

He owns three top-10 in his last six Open starts and is rounding into nice form recently, so if anything, I can’t see this price getting any longer before the week begins.

Collin Morikawa (+2500)

Speaking of rounding into form, Morikawa played extremely well through a back injury and the impending birth of his first child, which means he could be ready to erupt now that all of it is presumably behind him. A final-round 61 at the Travelers Championship on Sunday at least kept him waiting around for a little while at the end and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue stepping on the gas pedal.

Just five years ago, he gave us all the ol’ okey-doke, explaining that he’d never played links golf, finishing T-71 at the previous week’s Scottish Open, then claiming the Claret Jug. We won’t – or shouldn’t – get fooled again.

Viktor Hovland (+3300)

Well, when I started writing this article on Sunday afternoon, Hovland was 40/1. When I finished it up after his Monday morning win at the Travelers Championship, he was already 33/1. The masses love a good recency bias, and I’d expect this number to keep getting shorter as more bettors start making their plays for The Open over the next few weeks.

The 2022 edition of this one is largely remembered for Cameron Smith’s win as much as it is for Rory McIlroy letting it get away, but the same could be said for Hovland, who was tied with McIlroy entering the final round, four shots clear of everyone else, only to post a 74 and finish in a share of fourth place. He might finally be ready to win his first major this time around.

Joaquin Niemann (+4500)

Look, there’s plenty to dislike about Niemann. At the U.S. Open, he was issued a much-publicized misconduct penalty for throwing a club in the opening round. At this past week’s Italian Open, he led by five late in the third round, only to finish in third place and lose by six. But there’s plenty to like, too.

After that penalty at Shinnecock, he posted rounds of 65 and 66, easily two of the best of that week. And after posting one top-20 in his first 20 major starts, he now has three in his last five, including that career-best T-7 a few weeks ago. His record at The Open is especially ugly, but considering form and price, he might be worth a shot.

Adam Scott (+10000)

As far as Open Championship collapses are concerned, Jean Van de Velde’s final-hole triple-bogey at Carnoustie revives all the memories, but Scott’s close to the 2012 edition at Royal Lytham & St. Annes was a slower burn which might’ve left a bigger scar. If you can’t recall, the Aussie bogeyed his final four holes to shoot 75 and lose by one stroke to Ernie Els.

While he won the Masters the next spring, Scott told me last year before the final round at Oakmont that winning a second major has been the impetus for all the hard work he’s put into his game well into his 40s. At a place where putting is often neutralized a bit by the slower greens, The Open could be his best chance at it.

Ryan Fox (+12500)

If we’re seeking another Aaron Rai-type longshot at a major championship, well, Fox doesn’t have quite as big a number next to his name for this one, but he’s a proven contender on links courses who’s seemed more comfortable playing overseas, despite winning twice on the PGA Tour last season.

He’s been a bit quiet recently, but only if we haven’t been paying full attention, as he followed a T-8 at the RBC Canadian Open with another top-25 at the U.S. Open. At positive strokes gained in all four major categories, Fox is doing everything pretty well so far this season.