John Deere Classic: PGA Expert Picks This Week

Before the PGA Tour shifts across the pond, players head to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic. 

Ben Griffin (+1600) arrives as the pre-tournament favorite. Griffin has recorded six straight top-20 finishes, including a T-13 last week at Detroit Golf Club. 

Only three other players are currently +2500 or shorter to win based on golf odds. Those players are Jason Day (+2200), Davis Thompson (+2500) and Denny McCarthy (+2500). 

Let’s dive into my PGA Tour expert picks for the John Deere Classic. 

PGA Tour Expert Picks: John Deere Classic

Jake Knapp (+3300)

Betting on Knapp at this number is definitely less than ideal. However, Knapp’s recent form and his scoring ability on Par 4s make him a strong bet this week. 

Knapp missed out on the Rocket Classic playoff by a stroke, finishing T-4th last week. For the week, Knapp spiked to +9.7 strokes gained tee-to-green, his best performance of the season. 

For the entire season, Knapp ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in birdies or better percentage on Par 4s. Amongst players in the field, Knapp ranks third overall. 

Additionally, Knapp has recently excelled at easy tour setups. 

He ranks second in the field in SG: TOT on “easy” setups over his last eight rounds. 

That marks a seven-spot improvement from the 12-round sample and a nine-spot improvement from the 24-round sample. 

As a result, I like backing Knapp to earn his second career win this week. 

Alex Smalley (+4000)

Smalley missed the cut last week, which normally would cause concern for a similar course setup. 

But Smalley excels in two key areas that it naturally creates a buy-low opportunity. 

First, Smalley ranks T-2nd on tour this season in Par 4 scoring average. He also ranks 16th in birdies or better on Par 4s. 

Second, Smalley has excelled this season on easy setups. For the calendar year, he ranks seventh in SG: TOT on such setups. 

Additionally, Smalley has previously excelled at TPC Deere Run and has shown a spike in T2G ability recently. 

While a MC in 2024 leaves something to be desired, Smalley finished as the runner-up here in 2023. He also owns a second top-20 finish in 2022. 

Over the last 12 rounds, Smalley ranks seventh overall in my model – driven by seventh in SG: T2G – so I like the price at +4000. 

Cameron Champ (+8000)

Champ has quietly posted some strong metrics of late since his return from an injury. 

The three-time PGA Tour winner gained +12.1 strokes from tee to green over his last two events. Only three players recorded a better two-event run over that same span. 

Yet, bettors can find Champ amongst the longest odds in a weak field. That strikes me as odd for a player with some strong supporting metrics. 

Over the last eight rounds, Champ ranks sixth in birdies or better gained, fifth in Par 4 Efficiency and first in Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards. 

While the record at TPC Deere Run leaves something to be desired, Champ did record a T-11th here in 2021. 

Pair that with the fact he’s gained with the putter in three straight events, and I’ll take a bomb on Champ to earn his fourth career win.