John Deere Classic Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Last week, the PGA Tour announced massive changes to its schedule for 2028 and (presumably) beyond, featuring a two-track format which would essentially divide the circuit into tournaments including the best players and those with everyone else.

Love it, hate it, or be enthusiastically indifferent, there’s at least some not-so-thinly-veiled good news baked into this decision for bettors, which probably means most of you reading these words right now: There will be more golf to bet on each week.

If you’re the kind of sicko who lights up when it’s time for opposite-field events, you’ll have plenty to get excited about starting in a year and a half.

What we won’t have, though, are weeks like this one at the John Deere Classic.

For the most part, the big boys are getting a much-needed rest after the U.S. Open/Travelers Championship fortnight and before the Scottish Open/Open Championship one. But the festivities at TPC Deere Run will feature a handful of signature-event staples for different reasons.

Maybe Ben Griffin thinks it’s a good spot to pick off his first win of the season. Perhaps Chris Gotterup feels like he needs a few more reps before defending a title next week. Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley and Jacob Bridgeman each probably have a few things to work on before traveling overseas.

Integrating these types of events gives those players an opportunity to compete when the Scotties of the world aren’t in the mix and gives us an opportunity to get some better numbers on other players who are pushed further down the board.

Again, that won’t happen starting in a few years. If you want to bet on a guy like Griffin, you won’t be able to do it against an inferior field; you’ll need to have the confidence that he can beat the PGA Tour’s best players.

That’s not a complaint – I like most aspects of the proposal, though I’d like to see a few tweaks – but it should put an event like this one in the spotlight as one of the last few places we can take a top-tier player at a second-tier event, which is exactly where I’ll start my card.

John Deere Classic Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ben Griffin (+1400)

The oddsmakers were right to make Griffin the co-favorite this week (alongside Gotterup) — for a few different reasons. At 16th in the OWGR, he’s ranked second-highest of those in this field (behind only Gotterup), so the talent level is obviously there. He’s won three PGA Tour titles in the past 14 months, hinting at plenty of win equity should he get into the mix once again.

And after treading water for the first few months of this season, he’s finally in form, posting six finishes of 17th or better in his last eight starts, including a T-10 last week at the Travelers Championship, which featured yet another strong week with the approach play.

Only one favorite has won a PGA Tour event this season, which speaks more to Scottie Scheffler’s close calls than any sort of league-wide parity, but it’s about time for a second and Griffin seems ready to triumph once again at a place where he was top-five two years ago.

Aggressive Picks: Danny Walker (+50000)

Full disclosure: I hemmed and hawed for a while in seeking a name (or six) for this category. Every single one of ‘em had a little bit of the Goldilocks syndrome going on – they were just too… something. I’ll list a bunch of these players below, but here’s the gist: Tom Kim (+3300) was priced too low, Doug Ghim (+4000) was too much of a floor play only, Michael Kim (+5500) was too far removed from contending, Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6000) was too inconsistent, Max Homa (+6000) was too far removed from his best ball-striking and Andrew Putnam (+10000) was too poor on this specific course in the past.

It all led me to the conclusion that instead of sprinkling money on each or any of these guys to win, I’d rather just put more toward a known commodity in Griffin or just go down swinging with a complete longshot out of left field. I’ve liked Walker’s game in that he looks the part when I’ve watched him play, but I’ll readily admit that the putter has been truly awful recently and his ball-striking isn’t much better.

That isn’t exactly a resounding endorsement, but again, this isn’t some you’ve-gotta-bet-it kind of play. My process of elimination basically eliminated so many candidates that I simply went all the way to the bottom of the board and found a player who, in maybe a 1-in-10,000 type of scenario, could possibly win this tournament. Maybe the fact that so many of the mid-tier players have some blemishes only strengthens the idea that Griffin can win as a co-fave this week.

John Deere Classic Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jackson Koivun (+400)

It speaks volumes about Koivun’s credentials that in his first start as a professional, it feels like unintended disrespect to “only” list him for a top-five finish, especially after he’s finished top-six in each of his last three non-major PGA Tour starts and was T-11 at this very tournament last year.

I’m trying not to swoon too much over Koivun’s future, considering the stumbles we’ve witnessed from the likes of Nick Dunlap, Gordon Sargent and Luke Clanton recently, but my guess is that I’m not the only one who feels this way, which could help alleviate any imminent pressure he might feel.

Instead of immediately thinking he could make this year’s U.S. Presidents Cup team or counting up his majors over the next decade, perhaps our collective predictions around those other players will help quell expectations for Koivun. Of course, if he wins this week – or comes close – that cycle will likely start all over again.

Aggressive Picks: Tom Kim (+550) and Michael Kim (+900)

I’ve grouped these two together not due to their surnames, but because they’re each trying to capture a full-circle moment in their careers. Granted, Michael’s circle is a bigger one, as he won this tournament eight years ago, then saw his game endure an almost-immediate freefall. It’s a paean to his tenacity that he’s once again a very solid PGA Tour player and one who’s gained a fanbase with his insightful social media postings.

Tom, of course, was a phenom as soon as he reached the PGA Tour, winning twice at age 20 and again at 21 before also struggling with his game in recent years. If there’s been a trend this season, it’s that form continues to lead to better results and his third-place finish at the U.S. Open might only be the start of bigger and better things in the near future.

John Deere Classic Top-10 Prediction

Picks: Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+400) and Jackson Suber (+450)

I wrote in the above intro that I would like to see a few tweaks to the format changes for 2028, and the one I’d most argue for is immediate promotion/relegation during the season. As it stands, players would need to win two Challenger events in order to receive a promotion to the Championship series, but I think it should be more fluid.

Kristoffer Reitan and Alex Fitzpatrick are probably the greatest examples of what a player can accomplish in top-tier events if given the chance, but Yellamaraju and Suber are also examples of guys who were well on the outside looking in, but have made their way into signatures and proven they belong.

Simply competing against the game’s best should embolden these guys now that they’re playing against this type of field again. It’s easy to envision them both on the first page of this leaderboard.

John Deere Classic Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Doug Ghim (+188)

As mentioned previously, Ghim was among my candidates for an aggressive outright play this week, but I was a bit hesitant to take him at 40/1 just because he’s a guy who’s long owned a solid floor without really showing much of a ceiling.

Case in point: In 185 career PGA Tour starts, he has just a pair of top-five finishes and a half-dozen top-10s, but a comparably whopping 44 top-25s, which suggests his sweet spot is that of a poor man’s Maverick McNealy, just continually picking up decent paychecks at some of the B-level events.

So instead of trying to force a ceiling wager, I’d rather stick to what Ghim does best – and what he’s been doing lately, with six straight results of 31st or better, three of which cashed top-20 tickets.

Aggressive Picks: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+225) and Andrew Putnam (+350)

Over the years, TPC Deere Run has been a place where the pea-shooters don’t just survive, but thrive, as evidenced by Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson doing so much damage here. Essentially, even though 7,257 yards isn’t “short” – especially when compared with TPC River Highlands at more than 400 yards shorter last week – this is the kind of week where I started reading up from the bottom of the PGA Tour’s driving distance ranking.

If a player can survive on a regular basis as one of the circuit’s shortest hitters, he can thrive this week. That’s how I landed on Bezuidenhout and Putnam, two of the shortest off the tee who make up for it in every other category, but especially on the greens.

John Deere Classic Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Preston Stout (market not yet available)

Look, I can understand Koivun being listed at 20/1 in the outright market this week. And I can understand Stout being listed at 175/1 in the same market. What I have a tough time understanding, though, is these prices being offered concurrently at the same event. We’re fresh off a college season during which Koivun ranked as the No. 1 player in the nation with six wins in 15 starts, while Stout was No. 2 with five wins in 14 starts, including his victory at the NCAAs just last month.

Koivun certainly seems like the better prospect right now, but are we to believe that he’s nearly nine times likelier to win this week than Stout? I don’t think so. If I’m going to list Koivun above, then I certainly have to add Stout to the card, as well, even if it’s just for a top-40 play. Don’t be afraid of the ladder here, though.

Aggressive Pick: Zach Johnson (market not yet available)

The numbers are ridiculous: In 23 career starts at the Deere, Johnson has a win, three runners-up, seven top-fives and 17 top-40s, which feels like the right place to play him at this one. Granted, two of those top-40 misses have occurred in the last four years, but the two-time major champion seems like he has a renewed vigor on PGA Tour Champions, with a pair of wins and seven top-fives in eight starts so far.

His most recent victory came in the heartland just a few weeks ago and while there aren’t many places where he can still hang with the flatbellies of the big tour, this is one where a lack of power shouldn’t be much of a detriment.

John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Emiliano Grillo (+6000)

At last month’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Grillo opened with a 64 to trail by two, then at the RBC Canadian Open, he matched that score on Thursday to claim part of a six-way share of the early lead. We’ve seen some repeat offenders in the FRL market this year, so I like the idea of playing Grillo to keep it going, especially at a place where he was T-2 four years ago and lost in a playoff last year.

Aggressive Pick: Zach Bauchou (+8000) and Austin Eckroat (+10000)

These two Oklahoma State products were interchangeable on this list with Bezuidenhout/Putnam, as any/all could finish top-20 or be in the mix for FRL honors. I decided to list Eckroat and Bauchou in this spot, as they rank seventh and 15th, respectively, in R1 scoring average this season. If you’d prefer to play them in full-tourney finishing position markets, though, I don’t dislike that idea at all.