Live Golf Betting: Who Makes Sense at Rocket Classic?

Aldrich Potgieter and Kevin Roy lead the Rocket Classic after matching course-record opening rounds of 62, which suggests some value on bigger names down the board. Let’s take a look at some live plays in Detroit and elsewhere around the world of professional golf.

PGA Tour: Rocket Classic

I felt like Collin Morikawa was the wrong favorite this week, considering he hasn’t posted a single top-10 in his last eight starts. Apparently, I wasn’t the only one, as Morikawa drifted to co-favorite by Thursday morning, dropping from 12/1 to 14/1, while Patrick Cantlay (+1400) moved from 16/1 to that price. After an opening 6-under 66 which put him four strokes off the pace, he remains at 14/1. In my mind, these situations are like a pre-flop check in poker before you get to see some cards which help. I’m surprised Cantlay’s number didn’t move, but if you’re looking to buy, the optimal time might be after some early-wave guys go low once again, which could push him to something in the 16/1 range before he even tees off on Friday afternoon.

Max Greyserman is the current favorite at +750 and he’s a guy I played prior to the start of the tournament. I think he can win this week, but I can’t recommend him at this number. If he’s 4-5 back after Friday, we might find him in the 12/1 or even 15/1 neighborhood heading into the weekend, which would be much more appealing.

It wasn’t so long ago that Luke Clanton (+2200) was a favorite in PGA Tour fields before ever turning pro. Much as with Cantlay, we’ve seen a 66 from him and the odds are still decent. The approach numbers were very solid, so I don’t mind him at this price.

Speaking of iron play, Henrik Norlander (+4000) has been on fire with ‘em all season, though he’s yet to really show the results. Perhaps this could be the week, as he ranked second to Potgieter in approach on Thursday.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4500) isn’t a player I often target in birdie-fest types of events, but he posted a 5-under 67 with the fifth-best iron play on the day and a fairly terrible putting performance. If he can roll in a few more birdies, the man outside the checkpoints to make the FedEx Cup playoffs and European Ryder Cup team is surely motivated to play some solid golf.

Now let’s get to the big prices. On a course which should suit his game, Byeong Hun An (+10000) posted an eagle and three birdies against just one bogey, and could be in line for a big weekend. If you’ve already spent your allotted Kurt Kitayama (+40000) money for the year, I totally get it, but he’s worth a sprinkle at this massive price. Same goes for Keith Mitchell (+40000), who usually does his damage in the opening round and fades from there, but perhaps is prepared to do the exact opposite this week.

PGA Tour Champions: U.S. Senior Open

After a pair of finishes outside the top-25 in his two most recent starts on the senior circuit, Padraig Harrington raced out to a lead at The Broadmoor for most of the afternoon, but pre-tournament favorite Stewart Cink caught him late in the day. It’s a bad sign for anyone else with designs on winning this title that two of the absolute best on the senior circuit are already up there on the board. If I have to choose, I think it can be Cink’s week, but the price is going to be very short.

With less than 20 players under par and those big names on top, this feels like a less-than-ideal situation to take some chances. However, I did play a little Robert Karlsson at triple-digits entering the week and his 1-under 69 puts him very much in shouting distance.

DP World Tour: Italian Open

Dan Bradbury has the lead after one round, but it’s the home country man Francesco Laporta (+700) who is the current favorite, standing just one shot off the pace. I liked Laporta entering the week and could see him winning, but weird things happen on the DP and I’d rather take my chances further down the board.

I’ll start here with one of my favorites in Marco Penge (+2200), who is four shots back after a 2-under 68, despite a double-bogey on the card. Suspended earlier this year for betting on golf (cue the ol’ “one of us” gif), he already has a win and impressed plenty of observers at last month’s PGA Championship.

Keita Nakajima (+3500) and Martin Couvra (+4500) were among the faves entering the week and at five shots back, you’re getting a nice little discount.

Also five back are Jacob Skov Olesen (+9000) and Jason Scrivener (+10000). On a tour where weird things happen, don’t be afraid to buy some longshots with a few rounds to play.

LPGA: Dow Championship

At the two-player team event, it’s Gemma Dryburgh and Cassie Porter who own a one-shot lead after the first round, but expect plenty of leaderboard movement over the next three days.

I know it hasn’t always rung true at the Zurich Classic, but I’ve long believed that if a superstar has a tangible advantage over an average player, then two superstars should have an even bigger advantage over two average players. That said, I can’t get over the idea that pre-tourney faves and defending champions Jeeno Thitikul/Ruoning Yin should run away with this.

Much like the U.S. Senior Open, I don’t want to waste time (or money) looking for longshots in a place where they probably won’t cash. That said, you can get a nice little discount on the rookie duo of Ryo Takeda/Miyu Yamashita after their even-par opener.

Ladies European Tour: Amundi German Masters

Yeah, I get it: You’re probably not live betting this week’s LET event, but I just wanted a place to tell you about my Pia Babnik pre-tourney play, just in case she battles back from four shots down after the first round to win this thing.