Masters First Round Leader Odds & Picks

Below, golf bettors can find Masters odds for the first-round leader market along with FRL predictions.

For FRL markets this week, I’m looking for players with spike approach and putting potential. Course history offers an added bonus, but I don’t emphasize it as much for the FRL.

Let’s dive into the Masters FRL predictions. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

Masters First Round Leader Odds

Masters First Round Leader Predictions

Cameron Young (+2800)

I debated between Young and Ludvig Aberg (+2200) for this selection. Ultimately, I think little separates the two players, so I like the six extra points with Young.

This year’s Players champion excelled as course difficulty rose. Only three players outpace him in opening round SG:TOT for the season, with Young going low lately.

He sits at +13.93 SG: TOT in six opening rounds. Of that total, 9.94 came at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass.

At Bay Hill, Young scored a five-under 67. The output placed him four back of Daniel Berger but only one shot behind Collin Morikawa and Aberg.

At TPC Sawgrass, Young opened one shot off the pace set by five players.

In his best finish at Augusta National, Young began only two shots behind the pace set by Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka and Viktor Hovland.

With extra time to prepare, Young offers the statistical profile of an early leader.

Adam Scott (+5000)

Scott, a former winner at Augusta National, ranks third on the PGA Tour this year in first-round scoring average.

Through seven opening rounds, Scott never lost strokes in relation to the field. His best opening rounds came recently, too.

He spiked to +3.8 strokes gained at Bay Hill. There, Scott opened with a 68, five shots behind Daniel Berger but only two behind Aberg and Morikawa.

For the season, only Si Woo Kim gained more strokes on approach than Scott.

Over the last three months, Scott spiked to 2+ SG: APP in 20% of his rounds. Only seven players posted a superior spike rate.

Lastly, Scott previously demonstrated an ability to putt well on Augusta’s complexes. In his last seven visits, he gained strokes putting five times.

Nicolai Hojgaard (+5000)

I wrote about Hojgaard as a potential Masters Sleeper Pick. While I question if he can win, Hojgaard fits the profile of a potential first-round leader.

The Dane nearly captured FRL honors in his Masters debut. In 2024, Hojgaard opened with a 66, one shot off the pace that year. It ultimately proved to be his only sub-par round.

This year, Hojgaard ranks third in SG: TOT for the opening round. He also demonstrated a high spike potential with his irons this year.

Hojgaard gained over 3+ strokes on approach in 11.1% of rounds this season. Only four players possess a higher percentage than Hojgaard, who is tied with Collin Morikawa.

The putter cooperated this year, too. In seven starts, Hojgaard has lost strokes putting once.

Maverick McNealy (+5000)

Here’s another potential sleeper that could surprise people early on Thursday.

Up until the Valero, McNealy struggled with his iron play. However, he spiked to +1.05 and +1.5 in his final two rounds in San Antonio.

It marked the first time since the opening round at TPC Sawgrass that he gained over a stroke with his iron play. At TPC Sawgrass, McNealy shared the first-round lead due to a 67.

That’s generally indicative of McNealy’s success early this year.

He leads the field in SG: TOT for the opening round. Across eight opening rounds, McNealy recorded his best opening at TPC Sawgrass.

Lastly, McNealy dominated Augusta’s Par 5s in his debut last year. Across all four rounds, he posted a 56% birdie or better rate.

If he replicates that success on Thursday and spikes on approach, it could lead to a strong start.