Masters Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

AUGUSTA, Ga. – This week marks the end of an era at the Masters Tournament – or, if you prefer, the beginning of a new one.

For the first time since 1994, neither Tiger Woods nor Phil Mickelson will compete at Augusta National Golf Club. This year’s edition marks the tournament’s 90th anniversary, which means the Tiger/Phil Era lasted for more than one-third of its entire history to date.

Together they combined for eight wins, four runners-up, 24 top-fives, 30 top-10 and just five missed cuts during that span.

As Woods is fond of saying, “Father Time is undefeated,” and while they’re each missing the Masters for wildly different reasons, it’s a good reminder that change is inevitable.

Let’s get to those who will indeed be competing this week.

Scottie Scheffler has won the last two titles in even-numbered years, but is fresh off three straight finishes outside the top-10 and hasn’t played in close to a month.

Rory McIlroy is the defending champion, but only three players have gone back-to-back in Masters history and he’s only posted a T-46 and a WD in his last two starts.

Even so, I’m not going too far down the board with my favorite outright play. There’s a guy who’s been in contention the past two years, who’s won his two most recent starts and who still might not be getting his due respect from the public.

Well, hey, as we all know: Life is full of big changes.

Masters Tournament Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative: Bryson DeChambeau (+1100)

Any mention of DeChambeau and the Masters in the same sentence will undoubtedly elicit a chuckle and query in response: “Didn’t he once refer to Augusta National as a par-67?” Yes, he absolutely did. This was back before the November edition of this event in 2020, when he told Golf Channel, “I’m looking at it as a par-67 for me, because I can reach all the par-5s in two, no problem. If the conditions stay the way they are, that’s what I feel like par is for me.”

The headlines came quick and the jokes came quicker, especially when he failed to break his own standard for par in each of the four subsequent rounds. What didn’t make nearly as many headlines was his mea culpa, which has taken place nearly every year thereafter. “I’ve always since said I don’t regret saying that 67 thing, because I learned from that experience and it made me a better person,” he told The Telegraph last year. “But do I wish I hadn’t said it? I do. … It was motivation for myself and not intended as anything otherwise. I’ve never disrespected Augusta internally.”

Even if the public hasn’t let him off the hook, the Golf Gods have, as DeChambeau finished T-6 in 2024 – his first top-10 at the Masters in nine tries – and followed with a T-5 last year, when he famously played in the final pairing alongside eventual winner Rory McIlroy. It’s safe to say that Bryson has learned a few things about how to approach Augusta National, both inside and outside the ropes.

Armed with those experiences, he now enters this week fresh off back-to-back LIV Golf victories in Singapore and South Africa. He’s also asserted himself – along with Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele – as one of the surest things at major championships, having finished inside the top-10 in eight of the last 13, including top-six results in six of the last 11, one of which was a U.S. Open victory two years ago.

The general consensus, though, remains one which believes he’s perhaps more circus freak than professional golfer – more interested in hitting the ball far than hitting it well and more captivated by his own YouTube brand than winning tournaments. Those ideas, though, remain caricatures of the person he is.

Sure, he understands power is an asset. And yes, he likes creating content on the Internet. Many see those partialities and believe he’s some one-trick pony, but if we’ve learned anything about the fan-engaging, humble-sounding Bryson 2.0 over the past few years, it’s that he can be those things and still be one of the world’s best professional golfers. A win this week would only help prove that – again. 

Aggressive Pick: Robert MacIntyre (+3000)

On most weeks, I’ll research and take notes for a few days, then finalize the selections for my preview once the odds are released. For the major championships, with prices listed throughout the year, we have the luxury of being able to get ahead of things.

All of which serves as a preemptive explanation for my placement of MacIntyre in this spot. I had him locked in a potential outright prior to his Valero Texas Open title contention and while a win might’ve soured me on him a bit (only Sandy Lyle in 1988 and Phil Mickelson in 2006 have won the week before, then also won the Masters), the way he lost doesn’t exactly make me more bullish, either. And yet, I can’t get over the idea that he’s trending in the right direction.

Former NFL wide receiver Santana Moss is widely credited with the phrase, “Big-time players make big-time plays in big-time games.” He might’ve said it first, but it’s not like this was an original idea. Same goes for Tiger Woods, who long ago became fond of saying, “I prepare all year to peak four times a year.”

Again, he was simply reiterating what every elite-level player had believed for years, that the majors took precedence over all other events, but it wasn’t long before others started mimicking those words.

All of which brings us to MacIntyre, who, in his short time playing the biggest tournaments, has shown a propensity for saving his best stuff. I remember standing near Augusta National’s scoring area five years ago when he realized that his T-12 result would hold up and he jubilantly celebrated with family and friends, knowing he’d locked in a return invitation the following year.

He already had a top-10 at The Open at that point, then added another that summer. That sort of set the stage for whom he’d become. In the three biggest golf tournaments over the past nine months, Bob finished runner-up at the U.S. Open, tied for seventh at The Open and solo fourth at The Players.

I can’t buy into the idea that these are all simply coincidences. Instead, while every top player tries to emulate Tiger and peak four times each year (or five, if you want to believe the whole “March is major” kerfuffle), MacIntyre has figured out a little something about how to actually accomplish this.

“It’s what I want to do; it’s where I want to compete,” he said at TPC Sawgrass last month. “Obviously, last year was a big kind of wake-up call for me in order to know that I can really compete at the top end of world golf.”

His first major championship title might not be too far off and while he might be better suited for the one closer to home, he certainly has what it takes to get it done on this golf course, at least if the iron game cooperates. At this price, I’m willing to take that chance. 

Masters Tournament Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+275)

Quite honestly, it was a toss-up between Aberg and MacIntyre in the above category and this one, with the determining factor for placing the latter as an outright selection simply being the fact that he’s more than double the price in that market.

It didn’t feel right to list Aberg as an “aggressive” play at 14/1 when my other outright is merely three points shorter, but let’s not mince words: He can absolutely win this tournament and is on my very short list this week. The knock on the 26-year-old – at least over the past month – is that he can’t close, having rinsed two balls on the back-nine at TPC Sawgrass before similarly losing an early final-round lead at TPC San Antonio this weekend.

Aberg, though, seems impervious to scar tissue, just as he’s seemed impervious to needing a learning curve at Augusta National. He’s one of a half-dozen players in the past 15 years to finish runner-up in his debut, then followed with a seventh-place finish last year which shoulda/coulda/woulda been better, if not for a bogey-triple close on the final two holes, which hopefully isn’t a recurring theme.

Sure, the way he’s closed (or tried to) his past two events isn’t enviable and his field-average iron play last week is a bit concerning, but Aberg has the makeup of a top-five player in the world, where he was ranked at this time last year. Perhaps those recent close calls only steeled him for a better back-nine performance in contention this time around. 

Aggressive Pick: Patrick Cantlay (+800)

If this selection seems strange, well, I don’t necessarily disagree with you. Cantlay has competed in the Masters on nine previous occasions and has exactly one top-10 finish – a share of ninth in 2019, when he actually led on the back-nine for a hot minute before bogeys on two of his final three holes.

In most of those prior instances, Cantlay was playing better golf than he is right now, having lingered as an afterthought for much of this season. He’s currently ranked outside the top-30 in the world, far from his career-best of third.

That said, it hasn’t quite been as ugly as those who only peek at the first page of the leaderboard might believe. He owns three finishes inside the top-15 in seven starts, including a T-7 in his most recent appearance at the Valspar Championship, when he gained strokes in all four major categories.

The reality is, Cantlay might make more sense as a leverage play in contests such as DFS or office pools, where others will quickly dismiss him, but on an odds board devoid of much value, it exists with him in this market. I certainly wouldn’t blame you for being more conservative here with a top-10 or top-20 play – or even a top-40 at plus-money – but Cantlay feels like the type of ultra-talented player who could be peaking at just the right time.

I like the upside of taking a chance here on a price just a bit shorter than the second-favorites in the outright market. 

Masters Tournament Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Patrick Reed (+260)

Every player in this week’s field has had these dates circled on his calendar since he received the invitation from Augusta National – whether it’s a past champion or someone who just squeezed in recently. My guess, though, is that Reed has it circled in a brighter Sharpie than most.

It’s not just that the 2018 winner loves this place, having posted five more top-10s since that victory, including a solo third last year. It’s that, well, what else does he have to look forward to right now? Earlier this year, Reed announced that he was leaving LIV Golf and would work to regain his PGA Tour status.

Almost immediately, he won twice on the DP World Tour, essentially cementing his membership for next season. All of which now puts him in a holding pattern for the remainder of this campaign. There’s not much he can do to improve his pending status and nothing he can really do to hurt it.

I’m certainly not suggesting that any of the PGA Tour’s biggest stars are looking past the Masters toward next week’s signature event at Harbour Town. That’s not a thing that’s happening.

In the back of their minds, though, they know what’s next – the usual grind of the weekly schedule. Reed is essentially the guy waiting for his buddies at the blackjack table with a bunch of free-play coupons. Don’t be surprised if he gets on another heater. 

Aggressive Pick: Adam Scott (+400)

Here’s a hot(ish) take for you: Jack Nicklaus’ greatest Masters performance might not have been any of his six career victories, including 1986, when he came from behind at the age of 46, an all-timer which will be replayed many times during this week’s 40^th anniversary celebration.

Take nothing away from all that success, but I can at least make the case that his most incredible moments around Augusta National occurred a dozen years after that sixth victory, when he finished in a share of sixth place at 58 years old. This came eight years after his most recent top-10 here and he finished only behind Mark O’Meara, Fred Couples, David Duval, Jim Furyk and Paul Azinger, each of whom was in his prime at the time.

Nicklaus’ 72-hole total of 283 set the standard for the 50-and-over set, remaining there for another quarter-century. In the years since, it’s almost become a spring ritual: Some former champion, well past his peak, turns back the clock and gets himself onto the Masters leaderboard for a while. From Couples to Bernhard Langer, it’s become another of the great traditions at Augusta.

Over the past three years, we’ve seen Phil Mickelson and Zach Johnson take this baton and run with it, each finishing inside the top-10. I’m guessing Scott would blanch at any comparison with the 50+ guys, considering he’s a mere 45, but there’s still a chance he could be this week’s feel-good story in this category. It was less than a year ago that he played in the final pairing at Oakmont, finishing a disappointing T-12 after a final-round 79, but it still proved he could hang at a major.

I’ve been so impressed with how much work Scott has put into his game over the past half-decade, considering he easily could’ve taken the bag from LIV Golf or simply faded from our consciousness, and I do believe he’ll be rewarded with another win or a few more major contentions before he’s done.

In fact, I interviewed him before that final round at Oakmont and he said all the work, all those tourneys he’s played where you might’ve been surprised to see him, has come with the goal of winning a second major. The 2013 champion hasn’t posted a top-10 here in almost a full decade, but it feels like somebody always finds a fountain of youth in Rae’s Creek – not unlike Justin Rose, who’s the same age and lost in a playoff last year. My pick is for it to be Scott this time around. 

Masters Tournament Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Picks: Brooks Koepka (+138) and Jordan Spieth (+130)

I’ve been preaching this for years and still find myself trying to convince those who don’t invest in the sports they’re watching, but so many of us know it to be true: Gambling makes you a better fan.

I mean, I’m not even sure how this point is debatable in most cases. (Yes, I said most; there’s always going to be that fan who went to LSU and won’t bet on his team, but knows everything about the seventh-grader they’re hoping to recruit soon. This is a generalization, not an unassailable statement.)

Would you know the tight end for the Detroit Lions if you didn’t have some sort of weekly investment in the NFL’s product? Would you be scouring MLB boxscores to see which team was leading after five innings? And when it comes to golf, would you even be consuming content such as this if you just enjoyed vegging on the couch every Sunday afternoon and watching some guys hit the golf ball?

Whether you’re a big bettor or just throw out a couple of bucks each week, it’s the investment which forces you to watch closer, pay better attention and make your own definitive conclusions. All of which brings me to Koepka and Spieth. This is very unscientific, obviously, but I’d be willing to bet (see what I did there?) that if you polled 100 non-gambling golf fans and asked how these two are playing this season, the majority would respond that they haven’t won, haven’t contended enough and have been largely disappointing, considering their lofty Q-ratings.

If you polled 100 golf bettors, however, the majority perspective wouldn’t be as dour. You’d likely hear that each one has been amongst the best iron players over the past month-and-a-half, both have started heating up with the putter and – perhaps most importantly – there’s plenty of upside and room for improvement entering the most important stretch of golf. That’s a smart take, and for a pair of players whose Masters baseline is higher than most of their peers, I love the idea of jumping on both of them this week. 

Aggressive Pick: Sami Valimaki (+450)

Thirteen years ago, right around the advent of strokes gained analytics, I had dinner with Edoardo Molinari, a disciple of Mark Broadie, who’d developed the idea behind these statistics. His layman’s-term explanations were so rational and efficient that I still echo them when talking about data points and what they mean.

In the time since, Molinari has become an invaluable member of Luke Donald’s staff with the European Ryder Cup team, the man charged with poring over statistics to find the best fit for their players – to plenty of success in the past two competitions.

Last week, the DP World Tour asked Molinari for his stat-based Masters picks and posted them to social media. He listed Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa (which in his defense, might’ve been before last week’s WD) and none other than Valimaki. This wasn’t just some shot-in-the-dark longshot pick, either.

Molinari listed Valimaki’s approach game over the past 10 months, his recovery percentage from the rough and his putting from inside six feet as factors for his selection. I’ll admit that I hadn’t been considering the Finland native much before reading this, but it makes a ton of sense – and I’ve always believed in listening to smart people.

To add to Molinari’s points, Valimaki also won the RSM Classic here in Georgia last fall and is fresh off a T-14 result at the Valero Texas Open last week. The more I think about this one, the more I like it, whether you’re playing him for a top-20 or even top debutant. 

Masters Tournament Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Marco Penge (-135)

In general, I’m a big fan of top-40 plays in limited fields, when a player needs only finish just a little better than the top 50^th percentile. That said, I’ll readily admit that Penge might be more of a boom-or-bust pick than a steady floor selection, considering his season to date, which includes three finishes of 21^st or better in eight starts, but nothing else inside the top-60.

There’s certainly a scenario in which he plays his best golf – or close to it – and finds himself on the first page of this leaderboard at some point on the weekend. The three-time winner on the DP World Tour last year has that kind of talent and I don’t hate the idea of a ladder play up to top-10/top-20, as well. 

Aggressive Picks: Ryan Gerard (-145) and Alex Noren (+100)

He’s cooled off since three consecutive runner-up finishes spanning the end of last year and beginning of this year, but Gerard just might be the kind of Masters debutant who immediately fits this course. His iron play has been through the roof for much of this season, gaining strokes on the approach in six of his last seven starts – and more than a stroke per round in four of those.

He doesn’t lack for confidence and has already shown he can step right into the heat of the battle, closing T-8 in his first PGA Championship last year. In a limited field such as this, I love the idea of littering the card with a handful of plus-money top-40 plays and this one makes a lot of sense.

As for Noren, he’s finished top-40 in each of his last five starts and has been doing it with the irons and wedge lately, which is a nice combo for Augusta. The only issue is that he owns a T-62 and three MCs in his four career Masters starts, which seems fairly inexplicable for a player of his pedigree and skillset. I’m willing to take a chance here that he finally figures it out a little bit. 

Masters Tournament First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Justin Rose (+3300)

Here’s a quick story for all the youngsters out there: Once upon a time, there was a golfer named Charley Hoffman. Alright, there’s still a golfer named Charley Hoffman, but back in his prime he was a very good player – good enough to win four titles and play in the Masters six times.

While he finished inside the top-30 on each of those occasions, only once did Hoffman close in the top-10, a share of ninth in 2015. He was also the first-round leader just once, but did earn a reputation as a guy who crushed Augusta on Thursdays, posting a career opening-round scoring average of 69.5. Well, what was reputation for Hoffman has become reality for Justin Rose.

Including last year, Rose has led or shared the lead after the first round of the Masters on a record-tying five separate occasions. In 20 career starts, his Thursday scoring average is “only” 70.55, but that’s just because there have been some bigger numbers mixed in with all the good ones. He’s broken 70 nine different times, with two 65s and three 67s. At this point, he’s almost an auto-click for FRL here until he proves otherwise. 

Aggressive Picks: Min Woo Lee (+4000) and Sepp Straka (+5000)

There are plenty of times when I list players for FRL plays because I don’t trust them for full-tournament investments. This is not one of those times. The truth is, I think this could be a big week for both Lee and Straka, each of whom I’d also recommend for top-20s, if not also a ladder up to top-10 and even top-five.

The true value for each, though, might come in FRL plays, as MWL ranks top-10 in R1 scoring average this season and Straka has led a few big events, including a share of the first-round lead at The Players last month. They also tend to fit the annual profile. For as much as FRL plays are often a crapshoot at regular PGA Tour events, there just aren’t enough random dudes in this field to make a run at it – and those who are simply don’t cash these tickets.

Before Rose last year, it was DeChambeau in 2024, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm in 2023, Sungjae Im in 2022 and Rose again in 2021. It’s always enticing to play a big triple-digit number in this market, but that strategy rarely works at Augusta.