Memorial Tournament Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Every decade or so, the Memorial Tournament pauses its regularly scheduled roll call of superstar winners, instead offering up a few longshots to make us consider such possibilities, only to return to that usual inventory afterward.

Back in 2005, Bart Bryant defeated Fred Couples by one stroke at this event. Now, the late Bryant was the nicest guy you’d ever want to meet, often playing fun matches against mini-tour players during his off weeks at home, then buying ‘em lunch following the round, but he didn’t quite have the star-power of a guy like Couples, as that was just his second of three career victories.

The very next year, Carl Pettersson similarly made this his second PGA Tour win, a result which was hardly predicted by anyone at Muirfield Village, perhaps even Pettersson himself, who said, “This is a dream come true to even play in this tournament. To win, it’s just phenomenal.”

And then the winner’s list returned to some level of name recognition, fluctuating between the most famous professional athlete on the planet and proven PGA Tour winners, from last names such as Choi to Perry to Woods to Stricker to Woods (again) to Kuchar to Matsuyama.

Halfway through the last decade, though, the tournament’s Wiki page took another left turn.

David Lingmerth and William McGirt each inexplicably and unpredictably made the Memorial their first and only victory, defeating all the big names in the process.

There were undoubtedly plenty of observers who went into the 2017 edition of this event seeking out a massive sleeper, but again it became the domain of major champions and bigger stars, as the list continued with Dufner, DeChambeau, Cantlay, Rahm, Cantlay (again), Horschel, Hovland, Scheffler and Scheffler (again).

We’re right about at that point – or even a year past it – when this tourney should present another big surprise, but the thing about big surprises is that they tend to happen less in limited-field events featuring only the game’s best players.

They also tend to happen less when Scottie Scheffler is competing, which is again the case this week – and which is where I’ll start the selections, as it’s difficult to envision a conclusion that doesn’t somehow have the world’s No. 1-ranked player involved in the result.

Memorial Tournament Outright Winner Prediction

Live Pick: Scottie Scheffler (TBD)

As I wrote about earlier this week, there are a ton of reasons to like Scheffler this week. He’s the best player in the world, a two-time defending champion and long overdue for his next victory. There are also a ton of reasons to not play him in the pre-tournament market, as I outlined in the aforementioned piece. You can read all my rationale there, but the idea this week is to take a wait-and-see approach on Scottie. I don’t pretend to know the exact moment we should pull the trigger on an outright play, but it’ll be at something better than his +300 pre-tourney price.

Conservative Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)

It was at this event in 2014, when Hideki was in the midst of winning his first career PGA Tour title, that I decided to write a feature on him and asked one of the many Japanese journalists on-site for a little insight. “Well, he doesn’t speak much English,” she told me, “but he doesn’t speak much Japanese, either.”

Her point was that the shy, introverted then-22-year-old often didn’t have much to say, whether about himself or anything else. A dozen years later, Matsuyama has largely let his clubs do the talking as he’s grown into a Masters champion and one of the world’s better players, though still an enigma from multiple perspectives, as a man we really don’t know much about off the golf course and one who continually infuriates prognosticators when he wavers on the edge of looking dominant and being injured.

What we do know is that he owns a solid record here, with three other top-10s in addition to that victory, and the ball-striking numbers have been terrific recently. That’s enough to get me excited about this 40/1 price.

Aggressive Pick: Keegan Bradley (+9000)

Let’s not be naïve enough to believe that last year, in his 15th career start at this event, Bradley “figured something out” about Muirfield Village when he finished T-7 for his best-ever result here. If there’s any figuring out to do, it’s from the rest of us, in trying to reconcile why this hasn’t been a better stop for him over the years, considering his succinct assessment last year of, “You have to drive the ball really well. You can’t miss fairways here.”

He has long been one of the better drivers on the PGA Tour and while he ranks just 81st in SG: Off the Tee this season, results of 35th or better in four of his last six starts shows the game is starting to come around after that much-discussed Ryder Cup hangover.

The reality is, though, if I’m playing Scheffler (at some point) in the outright market, then I can’t/won’t take anyone else with anything close to a short price. While I don’t see another Lingmerth or McGirt beating the big boys this week, Bradley always has some win equity in that we know his best can beat everyone else’s best, as it’s done in the past. That’s good enough for me to take a shot at longer odds.

Memorial Tournament Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Picks: Patrick Cantlay (+400) and Justin Thomas (+550)

Let’s test the ol’ horses for courses strategy with a couple of plays from wildly different vantage points. Cantlay loves Muirfield Village, with a win in 2019 and another two years later, when Jon Rahm coulda, shoulda and most certainly woulda, plus two other top-five finishes and a perfectly respectable T-12 last year.

He’s also been trending in the right direction, with four straight results of 12th or better before a T-35 at the PGA Championship and some iron play that can only be described as very, very elite. Everything about Cantlay makes sense for this one.

The same can’t necessarily be said for Thomas. Sure, like Cantlay, he’s been trending recently, with three straight top-13 finishes, although last week’s T-13 at Colonial might’ve been more disappointing than hopeful. In fact, I picked him in the preview for an outright there, just as I did at the PGA Championship, which at least shows some consistency in which direction I think his game is heading.

The difference between JT and Cantlay, though, is that the former owns very little course history at Muirfield Village, with his two top-10s coming in 2017 and ’18, and nothing inside the top-30 here in the past four years. I still like him, though, and these selections are more than an experimental test with a singular variable in course history. That said, I’m very intrigued to see exactly how much weight that has in this one.

Aggressive Pick: Sahith Theegala (+1400)

A hot start to the season for Theegala has cooled recently, with three consecutive results in the 60s, thanks to some declining approach play. Based on very little, I’ve always believed Muirfield Village should – or at least could – fit Theegala’s game, and he’s at least shown a little something in the even-numbered years, with a T-5 in 2022 and T-12 in ’24.

There are others in whom I’d have more confidence for a top-five finish than Theegala, but much as with Bradley above, I don’t mind trying to dig for some value this week, especially when so much of the card is extremely chalky.

Memorial Tournament Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Si Woo Kim (+175)

We all have our blind spots and Si Woo has successfully eluded my own side mirrors throughout much of this season. I was late to jump on the bandwagon when he opened the season with four finishes of 11th or better. I started to back him when it looked as though he’d never fail to contend again, which is exactly what he did in response. And I was nowhere near the target when he posted top-threes at Harbour Town and TPC Craig Ranch.

All of which should have you running away from Kim this week, since I’m writing him up here – and should have Si Woo himself angered at this inclusion. I can’t help it, though. The man who for much of the first stage of his career was golf’s version of a home run/strikeout king, with a few behemoth wins and plenty of swings and misses, has impressively turned himself into a player with a very consistent high-level floor.

At a place where he owns two top-10s and four top-15s in the past five years, I love the idea of backing him in some capacity at this one.

Aggressive Pick: Bud Cauley (+650)

I’m on record as saying we’ve already seen the best winner’s story of the year at the Texas Children’s Houston Open two months ago, when Gary Woodland made his full-circle comeback from brain surgery by claiming his first title since the 2019 U.S. Open. A victory from Cauley, though, might at least be 1B on that list – especially if it could somehow happen at this event.

Eight years ago during the Memorial Tournament, he was a passenger in a car accident which resulted in a fractured lower left leg, six broken ribs, a collapsed lung and a concussion. He returned to play four events later that year, then played a full schedule each of the next two seasons, but multiple ensuing surgeries kept him from competing over the next three years. Since then, he’s not only been playing, he’s been playing well.

In fact, when he was in contention at last year’s Players Championship, it was Thomas himself – Cauley’s former roommate — who tweeted, “I’d do some really, really weird things for Bud to win today.” That win has yet to happen for the 36-year-old, but it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. In all, he’s gained strokes with the irons in each of his last five starts and seven of his last eight, posting three top-25s during that time.

His seventh-place finish at Harbour Town was his best since a third last year at Colonial, however I like the idea of taking a chance in this top-10 market, playing the narrative at a place where it would be another great story if he can find himself in contention this weekend.

Memorial Tournament Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Sam Burns (+130)

As I often write, top-20 plays in these limited-field events are some of my favorite bets, because the odds in this 72-man field aren’t far off from tourneys which have twice as many. Finishing in the top 27.8 percent isn’t exactly the kind of humblebrag which will make a player’s personal trophy room at home, but it suggests better-than-usual odds for such a play.

Burns has improved his leaderboard standing at the Memorial every single time he’s played it, from 81st to T-50 to T-16 to T-15 to T-12. Those last three finishes, again, weren’t exactly the most memorable of his career, but easily cashed top-20 tickets in these limited fields. I’ll bank on him here for four in a row.

Aggressive Pick: Alex Smalley (+138)

There are times when chasing bets can become a dangerous game. If the same thing happened every week, well, we wouldn’t need 37 of these things on the PGA Tour schedule every season. Then again, at least one same thing can happen every week and right now that’s Smalley emerging on the weekend leaderboard.

As I wrote last week, there are a lot of parallels right now between him and Ben Griffin last year, as the latter won at Colonial, then parlayed it into a runner-up finish at Muirfield Village the next week. Smalley is fresh off a T-2/T-3 run at Aronimink and Colonial – part of a stretch which has seen him cash top-20 tickets in six straight starts – and there’s no reason to back away from the heater now.

Memorial Tournament First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Chris Gotterup (+4000)

After starting the year with opening rounds of 64 or better in three of his first four events, Gotterup has only broken 70 in two of his last nine Thursday rounds. That might suggest some sort of early-week struggles – or it might just be the nature of the beast when playing more difficult courses.

Muirfield Village certainly falls under that category, considering in the past five years, the leading opening-round score at this event has been 67 twice, 66 twice and 65 last year, posted by Ben Griffin. The leader doesn’t need to go incredibly low, but I like the idea of buying into Gotterup

Aggressive Pick: Denny McCarthy (+9000)

Let’s not mince words here: So far this season, McCarthy has taken a major step backward in his career progression. Look, it happens. As a guy who relies on his elite-level putting every year, falling just outside the top-20 in that category is going to put more pressure on his ball-striking, which has also slipped from recent years.

That said, he does – strangely enough – have a solid record on bigger ballparks which shouldn’t really suit his game, including a T-5 here in 2022 and a playoff loss the very next year. For a guy who, when he’s on his game, can roll in 20-footers like other guys making 2-footers, I like the idea of a single-round investment, simply hoping that more of his putts find the bottom of the cup than anyone else’s. It’s tough to see him replicating that success of a few years ago, but for one round, he can certainly post a low number.