Narratives Around This Week’s Open Championship

This week marks the 154th edition of The Open Championship, and to put that number into perspective, it’s 14 more than the combined total of Super Bowls and NBA Finals ever contested.

Royal Birkdale should once again serve as an impeccable host venue, already looking brown and burned and fast and firm early in the week.

There are plenty of questions surrounding this event and plenty of potential narratives. Without further ado, let’s get to three of ‘em to kick off the festivities.

Who’s the Real Favorite?

These things are always a bit ambiguous, because live odds change in real time and no pre-tournament pricing is ever static, but we believe this much to be true: Scottie Scheffler’s current +750 number in the outright market is his longest at a major championship since the summer of 2022.

It makes sense, of course. Despite being the defending champion this week, Scheffler has now made 14 consecutive starts without a victory. In the first 13 of those, he posted four runner-up finishes, eight top-fives and nothing outside the top-25. Last week, though, Scheffler posted scores of 68-72 at the Genesis Scottish Open to miss a cut for the first time in 78 events.

It’s been enough to keep pushing that price closer to the field.

And I wouldn’t be surprised if it isn’t done moving.

As of Sunday night, Scheffler was +700 and Rory McIlroy was +800; by Monday morning, they were +750 and +850, respectively.

The public loves betting favorites, but I have a hard time believing Scheffler will receive much support in this market – at least, not in nearly the same way that he usually does.

McIlroy, on the other hand, is fresh off a final-round 64 that gave him a seventh-place finish at the Scottish, one which would’ve been much closer to a title contention if not for a third-round 73.

It’s been a dozen years since Rory lifted the Claret Jug, but in that time he’s finished seventh or better in six of nine appearances.

That combination of tournament history and recent form might be enough to push the public in McIlroy’s direction if deciding between the two names atop the board. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves a half-point shorter, Scheffler drifts a half-point longer and we have co-favorites at some point before the opening tee shot is struck Thursday morning.

If so, it would be the first time in at least three years that Scottie wasn’t alone at the top.

Is it Coming Home?

Unless you’ve been sleeping under a pot bunker for the past month, you should know that the World Cup is down to a legendary Final Four in the semifinals, with England set to take on Argentina this Wednesday.

Should the Three Lions win, that means Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and their mates will be competing for the country’s first World Cup title since 1966 this Sunday, which also happens to be the final round of The Open, which – you guessed it – also happens to be in England.

A lot of things will have to go right before then, but it has an opportunity to be one of the biggest sporting days in England’s storied history.

What would make it even bigger, of course, is not just Royal Birkdale playing host on the same day that England is playing in the final, but one of its countrymen staking claim to the Claret Jug.

There are plenty of possibilities.

Tyrrell Hatton winning The Open would be bonkers in about a dozen different ways, even if it wasn’t a World Cup year. Aaron Rai could reach hero status if he’s to win a second major in three months. Either of the Fitzpatrick brothers – Matt or Alex – would be celebrated for their accomplishment.

There are two, though, which would really send the U.K. into a crescendo.

Justin Rose first reached international acclaim during the 1998 edition of The Open, right here at Royal Birkdale, when he finished in a share of fourth place as an amateur. For him to return to same course 28 years later and finally win this tournament, it would easily pull on the heart strings of those who have watched him for so long.

And then there’s Tommy Fleetwood. He’s not just the country’s Favorite Son, but a local legend, as the Southport native used to sneak onto Birkdale as a young lad with his father Pete. After a decade of being an elite-level professional, with seven top-five results at major championships while still searching for that elusive victory, a triumph from Fleetwood this Sunday might even surpass that of Shane Lowry winning at Royal Portrush in 2019, as far as the hometown narrative is concerned.

If you’re all-in, if you’ve decided you want to put your money where your heart is and play England (+333) to win the World Cup on the very same day that Tommy Fleetwood (+1600) wins The Open, a two-leg parlay is currently +8127. Fish and chips not included.

Go Get That (top-10)?

The last time Royal Birkdale played host to The Open was nine years ago, when we were treated to the Full Jordan Spieth Experience, especially on the back-nine of Sunday’s final round.

On the 13th hole, Spieth hit a drive so far right that it took 20 minutes of deliberation just to find a proper spot to take a drop, then he wound up saving bogey from the driving range. Two holes later, he raced in a 48-foot eagle putt, then pointed at the hole and told caddie Michael Greller with a smile, “Go get that!” He would go on to win his third major title that afternoon and it appeared the sky was the limit for Spieth.

Well, it’s been a long nine years.

The range is now internal O.B., Greller has been pointed at more times than he can remember and whatever the limit was for Spieth’s game, he apparently already reached it.

“That was probably the best I ever was at golf,” Spieth said recently, and it’s hard to argue against that notion.

He’s won just twice since – and the most recent of those wins came more than four years ago.

Even worse is that he’s failed to claim a single top-10 finish in the past calendar year, his dance card filled with a bevy of middling results that bounce back and forth between promise and despair.

Just two months ago, prior to the PGA Championship, he compared his golf to one of those Whack-A-Mole carnival games – as soon as one thing pops up, he nails it down and another pops up. If nothing else, his sense of narration is dead-on.

Will this be the week that he finally gets back into the winner’s circle? It’s doubtful – and the +6600 outright number isn’t exactly begging us to pay to see if it happens. How about that first top-10 since last June? This is, at the very least, more conceivable. If you believe in the idea of Spieth at Birkdale, he’s available in the top-10 market at +500.