One-and-Done Golf Picks for the Valspar Championship

As the PGA Tour returns to action, so do the one-and-done pools for golf contest players. 

For those unfamiliar, OAD pools closely mirror an NFL survivor contest. Players select a golfer each week and earn their prize money at the conclusion of the event. 

The catch? Contestants can only use a player once. Additionally, not all prize pools are created equally, which further adds to the game theory. 

Below, I’ve outlined three players worth a look for OAD pools this week at the Valspar Championship. 

Golf odds are reflective at the time of writing and are subject to movement. 

3 Best Golf One-and-Done Picks for the Valspar Championship

Option #1: Xander Schauffele (+1000)

I’m operating as if Schauffele will play well at the Copperhead course. However, he’s not bettable at the current price in my opinion. 

Schauffele leads my mixed condition model. He arrives fresh off a third-place finish at TPC Sawgrass, where he gained 7.5 strokes on approach. 

That finish qualified as his second top-10 in his last three starts. Plus, he’s never finished worse than 12th in three Valspar starts, including a fifth-place finish two years ago. 

Last year, he gained +11.3 SG: APP, a career best. He also leads the field in bogey avoidance on difficult setups over a two-year timeframe. 

The caveat? Schauffele may be worth saving for a major championship if he wins this week. Looking ahead to the Masters – Schauffele finished eighth there in two straight starts. 

Option #2: Viktor Hovland (+1600)

I’m not a buyer of how Hovland secured a T-13th at the Players last week. Still, it’s tough to ignore two top-3s in three starts at Innisbrook. 

Not since the WM Phoenix Open has Hovland gained over a stroke per round on approach. The glass-half-full view of Hovland is that he gained on approach in eight straight events. 

The glass-half-empty view is that he ranks sixth on SG: APP over his last 50 rounds compared to 24th over his last eight. 

Additionally, he places 75th in par-5 birdie or better percentage this season. If there’s a sign for encouragement, it’s that he played the Sawgrass par 5s to -8 and the Bay Hill par 5s to -9. 

I don’t envision using Hovland in a major, so this might be the next best option given his course history. 

Option #3: Sahith Theegala (+4000) 

I wrote about Theegala as one of my Valspar Championship picks given his recent approach play. 

Old Theegala used to post super-volatile results. This year, he’s made seven cuts in eight starts, including three top-10s. At Bay Hill, he recorded his best finish of the season (T-6). 

Theegala lacks the overall course history that Schauffele and Hovland have posted. In good news, he produced a top-10 finish at the Copperhead course in 2022. 

He also possesses a great short game in the event his irons start to falter. In his last five starts, he gained over a stroke per round around the greens twice. 

Most encouraging about Theegala is his par-5 performance this season. He ranks fourth in par 5 scoring average and 17th in par 5 birdie or better rate this season. 

It’s my overall belief that Theegala, a former winner on Tour, owns a higher ceiling than these odds would suggest. 

At potentially low ownership in a stacked field, Theegala could offer upside for OAD chasers.