Open Championship Preview: Key Betting Stats 2026

For the first time since 2017, the Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale.

Golfers will see a slightly different course this year compared to nine years ago. Renovations beginning in 2023 slightly lengthened the course, adding a few new holes.

But the course largely remains the same. Players face difficult conditions off the tee with approaches into small greens. At a scorable course, good putting likely proves a differentiator.

Ahead of next week’s last major championship, here’s a look at the key statistics I’m using to help evaluate the British Open odds.

Open Championship Stats: Keys to Winning at Birkdale

Off The Tee

Strategically placed fairway bunkers, especially in windy conditions, provide the main defense at Royal Birkdale.

Accuracy off the tee remains helpful, but wayward drivers can get away with it to some extent. Jordan Spieth, notoriously a volatile hitter off the tee, showed that in 2017.

Rough thickens as you head further away from the fairway. Big hitters should enjoy an advantage if they can either hit the fairway or miss in the first cut.

SG: OTT and Distance from the Edge of the Fairway (DFEF) offer the first two stats to consider. Within the former, I’ll look at how players performed under difficult conditions.

Here are the 10 best active golfers in SG: OTT this year when it’s “difficult” or “very difficult” to gain (min. 12 rounds):

1. Gary Woodland
2. Michael Brennan
3. Cameron Young
4. Aldrich Potgeiter
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Rory McIlroy
7. Robert MacIntyre
8. Jordan Smith
9. Marco Penge
10. Taylor Moore

Approach the Green

Greens at Royal Birkdale average 5,000 square feet. They measure smaller than the PGA Tour average (6,000 square feet) and correlate with Harbour Town and Colonial.

Unsurprisingly, players will find it easier to hit greens from the fairway. In 2017, players hit the green 71% of the time from the fairway compared to 46% from the rough.

When Spieth won here in 2017, he ranked third in greens in regulation percentage. He supplemented it with a 73% scrambling rate (4th) and 1.72 putts per GIR rate (10th).

SG: APP will take on increased importance this week. Within the stat, I’m also considering how players performed when approaching smaller green complexes.

Here are the 10 best active golfers this year in SG: APP to “small” greens (min. 8 rounds):

1. Matt Fitzpatrick
2. J.J. Spaun
3. Austin Smotherman
4. Alex Fitzpatrick
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Brian Harman
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Adam Scott
9. Ryan Gerard
10. Andrew Novak

Read More: 2026 Early British Open Picks

Around the Green

When greens run smaller on average, players are going to need a strong short game to recover.

Closer examination of Royal Birkdale reveals tightly mown areas around the green areas. Think more Augusta National than Shinnecock Hills.

That said, getting around the greens offers a less difficult test than ball striking. In 2017, players averaged a 54% scrambling rate, down only 5% from the PGA Tour average.

Rather than evaluate SG: ARG, I’ll consider ARG Proximity – Short Grass this year. Here are the 10 best active players in that statistic during 2026:

1. Sudarshan Yellamaraju
2. Wyndham Clark
3. Harry Hall
4. J.J. Spaun
5. Danny Willett
6. Mark Hubbard
7. Bud Cauley
8. Sahith Theegala
9. Thorbjorn Olesen
10.  Andrew Novak

Putting

When it comes to putting, past performance offers no indicator of future success. That said, players will need to hole some putts to have a chance this week.

In 2008, Padraig Harrington won here at +3. Jordan Spieth needed 15 fewer shots to win in 2017. Barring horrific weather, my belief is that the winning score looks closer to the latter.

Greens at Royal Birkdale run at a 10 on the stimpmeter, slow by major standards. Rarely ever do players see these green speeds on the PGA Tour.

To reach a semi-meaningful sample, I went back to 2024 to find how players performed in SG: Putting on “slow” greens. Here are the 10 best active golfers in that stat:

1. Sungjae Im (27 rounds)
2. Calum Hill (4 rounds)
3. Shane Lowry (14 rounds)
4. Jake Knapp (22 rounds)
5. Dan Brown (14 rounds)
6. Oliver Lindell (4 rounds)
7. Harris English (28 rounds)
8. Matt Fitzpatrick (32 rounds)
9. Wyndham Clark (30 rounds)
10. Julien Guerrier (8 rounds)