PGA Championship Favorites 2026: Analyzing the Short Shots

Very rarely over the last two years has a golf major winner emerged from nowhere.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy hold four of the last five major titles. J.J. Spaun proved the exception with his unlikely U.S. Open victory at Oakmont.

In fact, only three of the last 12 major winners closed outside +2000 to win their respective major.

Read More: 2026 PGA Championship Sleeper Picks

Current PGA Championship odds price six players inside +2000 to win. Below, bettors can find my evaluation of the board as they consider the favorites.

Analyzing the 2026 PGA Championship Favorites

Scottie Scheffler (+450)

Scheffler is peaking at the right time as he seeks a PGA Championship title defense.

Last year, Scheffler’s irons informed his dominance. Early in the 2026 season, he struggled to put together Scheffler-esque iron performances.

The metrics started rapidly improving at the 2026 Masters. Scheffler spiked to +1.67 SG: APP per round, including +5.5 in the third round.

Over his last 12 measured rounds, Scheffler gained over one stroke on approach five times. By contrast, he achieved that same feat only four times in his first 22 measured rounds of 2026.

Given he leads the field in bogey avoidance and SG: Par 4s, he could easily repeat at Aronimink.

Rory McIlroy (+850)

McIlroy won the Masters despite lacking his best stuff. An elite short game + putting week earned him his second green jacket in as many tries.

Whereas Scheffler’s irons are improving, McIlroy has regressed a bit since the start of 2026.

After clearing +1.2 SG: APP per round at Riviera and Pebble Beach, he has yet to clear that benchmark in the last three events.

We saw glimpses of success at Augusta, where he cleared +1 in three of four. However, he also posted a -4 SG: APP round.

Aronomink slightly takes away McIlroy’s huge edge off the tee, assuming the PGA grows out the rough. It leads me to stay away from him winning largely due to the price.

Cameron Young (+1200)

Young picked up two wins already in 2026, along with a T-3rd at the Masters. It should give him a great chance to win the PGA Championship, where he owns a top-five (2022).

I still like Young at this price, given how he’s won tournaments this year. At TPC Sawgrass, he demonstrated elite iron capability (+1.77 SG: APP per round).

At Doral, he used a brilliant putting performance (+1.77 SG: Putting). Over his last six starts, Young recorded at least +1.45 SG: T2G per round in all six events.

The last two events saw him radically improve his short game. He spiked to +0.75 SG: ARG at Harbour Town and +0.64 at Doral. He never cleared 0.45 before those successes.

Another factor worth considering with Young: Last year, he finished T-7th at Philadelphia Cricket Club. It’s a similar setup to Aronimink – both Par 70s with an emphasis on putting.

Jon Rahm (+1600)

I lack interest in Rahm for the PGA Championship. While he flourished late at Quail Hollow last year, Rahm hasn’t posted a top-five at a major since the 2023 Open Championship.

Not since the 2018 PGA Championship has Rahm finished fifth or better at this major. The ball-striking metrics offer some hope, but I don’t want to trust Rahm at price.

Xander Schauffele (+1800)

So much of how I view Schauffele depends on his Truist Championship performance at Quail Hollow.

Schauffele began posting excellent ball-striking metrics starting with the Players. He gained at least +1.3 SG: BS in four straight events, including +3 at the Masters.

A strong performance at Quail Hollow – fifth or better is my benchmark – garners Schauffele consideration. Schauffele won the 2024 PGA and finished T-3rd in the 2018 BMW at Aronimink.

The glass-is-half-empty view of Schauffele? Outside of his 2024 win, he owns only one other top-10 finish at the PGA Championship.

If, however, the Quail Hollow performance falls short of expectations, I’ll likely soften my view.

Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)

The odds alone render DeChambeau an intriguing option. He missed the cut at the Masters, but finished T-10th at the Open late last year.

Here are DeChambeau’s last five PGA Championship finishes: T2-2-T4-T38-T4. For a player that has come so close and won on LIV this year, DeChambeau’s price looks high.

The arguments against DeChambeau are two-fold. First, Aronimink features one of the highest bunker counts at major venues.

Given DeChambeau’s sand issues at Augusta, it’s cause for concern.

Second, losing two Par 5s on the course may hamper DeChambeau’s scoring ability. The counterargument? He won a U.S. Open at a Par-70 Donald Ross design.

Ultimately, it’s my belief DeChambeau owns higher win equity than his 4.8% implied chance.