PGA Championship Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

NEWTOWN SQUARE, Pa. – The last time Aronimink Golf Club held a big-time men’s professional golf tournament was the 2018 BMW Championship – the penultimate event of that PGA Tour campaign.

Coinciding with the first weekend of the NFL season, just over six months after the hometown Philadelphia Eagles had claimed the first Super Bowl in team history, the city was already buzzing, a tangibility which only intensified when the first-round leaderboard showed Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy tied at the top, followed a few hours later by the reigning champions winning their Thursday night opener.

Spoiler alert: That momentum didn’t quite continue for the remainder of the week. Heavy rain forced the final round to be pushed back to Monday, when Keegan Bradley defeated Justin Rose in a playoff.

The point remains, though. Whatever combination of infrastructure and fan support and juju from the Golf Gods is needed to cultivate a memorable PGA Championship could all be on display this week, when Aronimink gets a rare opportunity to bask in the spotlight again.

As a major championship venue, the club owns a somewhat sporadic history. There was the 1962 PGA Championship, which turned out to be Gary Player’s third of nine major victories, then the 1977 U.S. Amateur, 2003 Senior PGA Championship and 2020 Women’s PGA Championship – a smattering of top tourneys which will almost undoubtedly be surpassed by whatever dramatics take place this time.

And there are plenty of potential storylines from which to choose.

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is trying to break the second-place schneid which has afflicted him over his three most recent starts. Masters winner Rory McIlroy is, of course, the only player for whom the single-season slam is still a possibility. Cameron Young appears on the brink of superstardom, a major title the next logical step in his expedited career progression. And the Fitzpatrick brothers seem intent on either teaming up for world domination or simply one-upping each other.

The Donald Ross design – restored by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner in 2017 – will play to a mild (by today’s standards) 7,394 yards this week and should put a focus on mid-iron play and putting on these contoured greens.

Let’s get right to the selections, starting with a name which should come as very little surprise.

PGA Championship Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Cameron Young (+1200)

This is clearly a case of player over price, because while we’re getting a top-five talent who’s learned how to close out big-time tournaments, I’ll readily admit that all of the value has already been squeezed out of this play.

Prior to the Ryder Cup, Young was available for this one at 80/1. At the beginning of this year, he was 50/1. After winning The Players, he dropped to 33/1 and just two weeks ago he was trading at 20/1 prior to his Cadillac Championship victory. He dropped to 14/1 after that win, 12/1 while in contention at last week’s Truist Championship and – despite posting a final-round 74 that tied as the worst total for anyone who finished inside the top-50 – the odds actually shortened to 11/1.

All of which is my way of saying congratulations to anyone who was sharp enough to be thinking well in advance. In fact, it was during the Ryder Cup, where Young was clearly the U.S. team MVP with a 3-1-0 record in a losing effort, when I first started putting all the puzzle pieces together.

Much like at Bethpage, there’s a reason why a big-hitting player from the Northeast could succeed on a big Northeast ballpark, and while Aronimink isn’t nearly as brawny as the Black, Young’s driving prowess should similarly work at this venue, not to mention his much-improved iron play and much, much improved putting.

Do I love this number? Absolutely not – and I wouldn’t disagree with any wait-and-see decision to try and bet him live at a potentially bigger price. I also, though, believe that Sunday was at Quail Hollow was an outlier, not some regression to the norm, and Young is ready to claim that first career major title this week.

Aggressive Picks: Brooks Koepka (+4000) and Justin Thomas (+4500)

It’s often been said that experience matters at the Masters and there’s plenty of evidence to support this hypothesis, as those who show up on the leaderboard at Augusta National are often repeat contenders. The same can be stated for The Open Championship, where players either understand how to play links golf, usually in some semblance of breezy conditions, or they don’t.

By a lesser degree, this idea also corresponds at the U.S. Open, with those who enjoy the stiffer test of grinding out pars having an inherent advantage over the more error-prone. We don’t often speak of players being “PGA Championship types,” for the reason that Kerry Haigh’s setups are so nondiscriminatory, but perhaps there’s something to this notion, as well.

Since 2017, Thomas and Koepka have combined to win more PGA titles than every other person in the world combined, posting five to only four for the rest of us. There’s plenty of reasons to not buy into either of these guys, with Thomas wilting while in contention this past weekend and Koepka failing to finish in the top-10 of an alternate-field event.

But if I’m taking a price which feels admittedly too short with Young, then I want some value further down this board and even if it feels like chasing, I don’t mind backing a pair of players who each know how to win this championship.

PGA Championship Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Chris Gotterup (+1000)

If you took three parts Koepka and added a dash of Young, the recipe might very well yield Gotterup – a big-hitting, ball-striking closer who’s already armed with plenty of confidence. Perhaps my favorite thing about his game – as much as the headliner fact that he’s won four titles in the past 24 months – is that he tends to bring his best stuff against the best players.

He won last year’s Scottish Open with Rory McIlroy in his group; he defeated playing partner Scottie Scheffler by double-digits in the opening round of this year’s WM Phoenix Open.

There isn’t a single player with his recent win profile listed anywhere near him in the outright market (66/1) and while I’ll back off that one just slightly, he’s certainly capable of another title contention this week.

Aggressive Pick: Thomas Detry (+1800)

There’s been plenty of discussion recently as to which players could (or would — and yes, these are two different answers) return to the PGA Tour and add to the overall value. Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm are very obviously examples 1A and 1B, the two superstars who might have a direct impact on the competitive balance.

I’d argue that in addition to being a world-class talent, Tyrrell Hatton holds massive entertainment appeal. Joaquin Niemann shouldn’t be forgotten, nor should young players such as David Puig and Tom McKibbin. The analysis often tends to end there, but it’s a clear swing and a miss to suggest others aren’t worthy.

Detry would be up there on my personal list — a runaway winner at last year’s WM Phoenix Open and currently No. 3 in the LIV standings behind only DeChambeau and Rahm. That’s not to suggest the 33-year-old Belgian is going to start moving any needles soon, but it’s impossible to suggest he doesn’t belong somewhere amongst the PGA Tour’s top-100.

Whether he’s interested in a return someday or not, this week represents one of his few chances to show he belongs with all the best players. They can’t all be chalky plays, so I like the idea of taking a chance on an investment here — and similarly don’t hate the idea of taking him for low LIV player.

PGA Championship Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+200)

I just can’t quit Ludvig. Honestly, I find it impossible to watch him play and not believe that he’s going to contend just about every time he tees it up. He very obviously has all the tools to be one of the world’s best golfers – not only right now, but for the next decade – yet winning has been tougher than we might’ve thought, as his PGA Tour odometer has remained on two for 15 months now.

Entering last week’s Truist Championship, he’d finished top-five in four of his last five starts, then he looked rather ordinary for the first three days at Quail Hollow with scores of 69-69-70 before reeling us back in with a final-round 66 to finish in a share of eighth place.

His major championship records leaves something to be desired, with a pair of top-10s in three starts at the Masters, but four MCs in six appearances at the other three, including a failure to reach the weekend in either of his previous PGA Championship starts.

Even so, there’s too much to like – at least in this market, which is a spot where he keeps cashing tickets.

Aggressive Pick: Patrick Cantlay (+375)

He is the forgotten man amongst the game’s uppermost echelon, though perhaps that’s because he no longer warrants such categorization. I’ll acquiesce that Cantlay is a far cry from the game’s best players right now, but I also don’t think he’s merely the 30th-best player in the world, as suggested by his current world ranking.

In fact, you are excused if you’ve missed his recent run of strong results, but largely based on some high-level iron play, Cantlay has now finished inside the top-12 in four consecutive starts. He’s another who’s outright number of 45/1 is tantalizing, however I’ll continue buying into his floor instead of taking a chance at the ceiling.

PGA Championship Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Sepp Straka (+275)

Here’s the problem – from a prognostication standpoint, at least – with having a signature event directly leading into a major championship: While there assuredly will be some overlap from that leaderboard to this one, we all know there are those who played well last week and won’t repeat it this week, while there are those who weren’t great at Quail, but will contend at Aronimink.

If that simply sounds like I’m making an excuse for picking Straka here on the heels of his T-63 finish, well, you’re dead right. Look, it wasn’t a good week for him, but I’ll hold onto the fact that once again his iron play was solid, which has been a hallmark of his performance throughout this season. The last time the PGA Tour traveled to Philly, it was Straka who won last year and while that likely has no impact on how he’ll play at this one, having a little good mojo certainly couldn’t hurt, either.

Aggressive Pick: Kurt Kitayama (+250)

Not only do we see very few longshot winners of major championships anymore, we rarely see anyone from outside the very top-tier take these tournaments. Here’s a fact which every golf fan knows, but might sound crazy when put into these terms: Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, the world’s two best players, have won 80 percent of the major titles since the beginning of last year, with only J.J. Spaun also claiming one.

Going back one more year, we find another for Scheffler, two for Xander Schauffele and one for Bryson DeChambeau, which unequivocally means eight of the last nine have gone to the very elite of the upper echelon. If there’s another Spaun in this field, it very well could be Kitayama, who’s quietly starting to show results which equate to his usual high-level tee-to-green performance.

PGA Championship Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Wyndham Clark (+150)

The last time Clark played a major championship in Pennsylvania, he wound up destroying a locker in frustration on his way out of Oakmont. Whatever he does this week, the jokes will be too easy about Aronimink trying to stay intact, but there’s reason to believe Clark is past those temper tantrums. He’s finished 21st or better in three straight starts, including the Zurich Classic team event, but failing to qualify for all the signature events must sting – especially last week’s Truist, the site of his first victory three years ago. I like the idea of buying low on a guy with a high ceiling and increasingly higher floor.

Aggressive Pick: Stewart Cink (+275)

This might be my favorite play on the card and I’ll say right off the bat that I don’t mind a ladder to top-20 and even top-10 this week. Over the last year-and-a-half, Cink has played exactly one event against the flatbellies – a missed cut at last year’s Open Championship – but he’s been the second-most dominant player on any major tour this season, right behind Nelly Korda.

With four wins in nine starts on PGA Tour Champions and nothing worse than sixth, Cink is evoking memories of Hale Irwin and Bernhard Langer – guys who were just massively better than the competition on the 50-and-over circuit. I love betting those who are playing with house money and this year’s Senior PGA winner literally has nothing to lose this week.

PGA Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Rickie Fowler (+5500)

Full disclosure: There are plenty of occasions when I list a player for FRL not only because I see value in his ceiling for a single-round investment, but because I don’t fully trust him for a four-round play. This isn’t one of those times. The reality is, there were multiple categories for which I considered listing Fowler this week, on the heels of his runner-up finish at Quail Hollow, but I wound up going with this one for a few different reasons.

First of all, he’s played well on Thursdays this season, posting four scores of 67 or better. And secondly, there’s reason to believe Sunday’s close call might only motivate him to step on the gas pedal from the first tee this week. With a strong record on Donald Ross courses and obviously playing some of his best golf in years, there’s a lot to like about Rickie, but I’m looking for the early-week cash here.

Aggressive Pick: Nick Taylor (+12500)

Over the last five years, the low first-round totals at each PGA Championship has been 62, 64, 65, 66 and 67, which means if you’re trying to figure out what it’ll take at Aronimink this Thursday, your guess is as good as mine. I do think that as a par-70, there might be a better chance than usual for a shorter hitter to post a low one, since the bombers only have two par-5s on which to score.

Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but I could see a guy like Taylor essentially playing U.S. Open-style golf for much of the day, just grinding out pars and avoiding mistakes, then chipping in five or six birdies and winding up atop the board. With a pair of opening-round 66s over the last two weeks, the Canadian makes for a worthy longshot play in this market.