PGA Championship Sleeper Picks Include Henley, Straka

The PGA Championship is no stranger to longshots contending at the major.

Mito Pereira nearly came through as a 500-to-1 longshot at the 2022 PGA Championship. He ultimately gave away the tournament with a tough 71st and 72nd holes.

Last year, Davis Riley and Jhonattan Vegas cashed top-10 paychecks after strong starts.

Below, I’ve outlined my favorite PGA Championship sleepers. I view these players as capable of contending with an unlikely shot at victory.

PGA Championship odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

Best PGA Championship Sleeper Picks for 2026

Gary Woodland (+10000)

Woodland is enjoying a renaissance in the 2026 season. He started and finished well at the Masters following a victory at Memorial Park.

The latter track offers similar agronomy to Aronimink Golf Club. Both are parkland courses with large greens, an emphasis on putting and strong wedge play.

Woodland led the field in SG: Putting at Memorial Park. He also showed spike iron potential in the build-up to the 2026 PGA.

The 2019 U.S. Open winner gained +1.4 SG: APP at Memorial Park and +1.18 at the RBC Heritage. He also jumped to +2.8 SG: APP in his final round at the Masters.

Woodland also has prior experience at Aronimink. At the 2018 BMW Championship, he finished T-12th with four rounds of 67 or better.

Those factors lead me to believe Woodland owns a higher than a 1.2% implied probability to win the tournament.

Kurt Kitayama (+10000)

This season, Kitayama either wildly outperformed his market expectation or delivered a total dud.

Top-10s at Riviera, Doral and Harbour Town in signature events offer the strongest evidence.

Sandwiched in between those results are a 51st at the Masters and missed cut at the Players.

If there’s a major where Kitayama can contend, it’s the PGA. His best major finish came at the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill (T-4th).

On zero other occasions has the California native finished in the top 10 at a major.

Working well for Kitayama right now is his ballstriking. Excluding his Truist Championship performance, he ranks 13th in total driving (last five months) and 11th in SG: APP (last four).

He also places 12th in bogey avoidance percentage and 13th in Par 4 Efficiency. While a victory appears unlikely, don’t be surprised if Kitayama contends at Aronimink.

Read More: PGA Championship Favorites Analysis

Sepp Straka (+6600)

Straka experienced unkind results at five PGA Championship starts. Only one top-10 helps distract from four finishes outside the top-60.

If there’s reason for optimism, it’s that his best PGA finish (T-7) came at Oak Hill. While not a direct 1-to-1 correlation with Aronimink, it’s not dissimilar as a long Par 70.

This season, Straka performed well when he avoided big blowup rounds. He put three good rounds together at both the Masters and RBC Heritage before imploding on Sunday.

Straka also owns a pair of top-10s at Doral and TPC Sawgrass. Last year, he won at Philadelphia Cricket Club, which also possesses some similar Aronimink traits.

Driving Straka’s best finishes this year is outstanding ballstriking. He finished 17th in SG: BS at the Players and 21st at Doral. Despite a bad finish at Augusta, he ranked 14th in SG: APP.

Those factors render the price on Straka intriguing at what appears to be a strong course fit.

Rickie Fowler (+5000)

The market changed radically on Fowler following a strong finish at Quail Hollow. Last week, oddsmakers priced him at +8000 to win at Aronimink.

Now, he’s all the way down to +5000. Whether he still qualifies as a sleeper pick remains up for debate. However, he offers good course history and strong metrics supporting another strong finish.

Fowler qualifies as one of the few players in the field with previous Aronimink experience.

At the 2018 BMW Championship, Fowler finished T-8th. While three straight PGA finishes outside the top-60 offer some skepticism, Fowler owns strong metrics this season.

Exclusive of his performance at Quail Hollow, Fowler ranks 11th in SG: APP over the last five months. Recently, he showed spike potential with his irons, a requirement for Aronimink.

Fowler averaged +0.86 SG: APP per round over his last two events. It marks the first time since the American Express he gained at least +0.7.

At Doral and Harbour Town, Fowler spiked to at least +0.95 per round in half of his eight rounds. Three saw him clear +1.5 with his irons.

He simultaneously ranks eighth in scrambling, third in bogey avoidance and 11th in SG: Par 4s. With two PGA top-10s under his belt, Fowler offers spike potential at Aronimink.

Russell Henley (+5500)

On paper, the course should fit Henley to an absolute tee.

Distance helps on a few Par 4s, but accuracy off the tee likely takes precedent. Four-inch thick rough at Aronimink means playing from the fairway will earn players an advantage.

Henley leads the PGA Championship field in distance from the edge of the fairway. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 11th in driving accuracy when the rough isn’t short.

While the season-long iron metrics leave something to be desired, Henley recently showed spike capability. He cleared 2+ SG: APP in three rounds at Augusta National.

Over the last six months, Henley ranks ninth in scoring opportunities inside five feet from 101-150 yards. Six Par 4s between 400-450 yards will help drive those opportunities.

The Georgia product ranks third in bogey avoidance rate this year, sixth in SG: Par 4s – 401-450 yards and ninth in scrambling percentage from the rough.

All those factors leave me encouraged about Henley. Whether he can win is a question mark, but I believe the price is too far gone.