Best PGA Picks this Week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The latest PGA Tour signature event hits Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

Current golf odds price two-time Bay Hill winner Scottie Scheffler (+333) as the favorite this week. His top-10 streak ended at Riviera, despite a late charge on Sunday to finish T-12th. 

Rory McIlroy, another former winner here, opened at +900 to win this week. Ryder Cup teammate Tommy Fleetwood (+1800) completes the trio of players inside +2000. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Best Golf Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500) 

Only Si Woo Kim has gained more strokes ballstriking in 2026 than Fitzpatrick. Only two players – Kim and Rory McIlroy – have gained more strokes on approach. 

Fitzpatrick progressively posted worse finishing positions from the WM Phoenix Open onward. He recorded two top-20s in that span before finishing T-24th at Riviera. 

But the only factor holding Fitzpatrick back is the putter. Perhaps a change from the bumpy Poa California greens to fast Bermuda surfaces will offer improvement. 

The U.S. Open winner started 10 events at Bay Hill. He never lost strokes putting at this track in that timeframe. 

Over his last seven appearances at this track, Fitzpatrick owns four top-10 finishes and six top-25s. 

If he keeps up the ball-striking record and puts better, I like the Brit to contend in Florida.

Rory McIlroy (+900)

Very rarely do I build a mixed condition model that places Rory ahead of Scottie. This tournament is one of those qualifiers. 

McIlroy’s irons are flourishing this year. He gained over one stroke on approach per round in two starts, cumulatively reaching 11.7 strokes gained approach. 

The last time McIlroy achieved that feat? All the way back in May 2024. 

McIlroy, for his standards, struggled recently at Bay Hill. He failed to finish inside the top-10 each of the last two years after six straight top-13s here, including a victory. 

Another factor benefiting McIlroy? His dominance on Par 5s. Over the last 20 rounds, McIlroy ranks second in the field in Par 5 birdie or better percentage. 

Last year, 73% of Russell Henley’s winning score came on the Par 5s. In 2024, Scheffler achieved 80% of his winning score on those four holes. 

Based on those factors, it’s my belief the gap between Scheffler and McIlroy is too wide this week.

Ludvig Aberg Top-20 + Ties Finish (+115)

Aberg secured a top-20 at Riviera with a strong final round. After a weak opening round where he lost -1.48 SG: APP, he turned around his irons in a hurry. 

His final three rounds in the Pacific Palisades averaged +0.94 SG: APP per round. In two of those rounds, Aberg cleared +0.8, spiking to +1.67 in the second round. 

As he got further away from his Amex withdrawal (illness), Aberg began to turn around his ball striking. 

He went from -0.97 at Torrey Pines to -0.08 at Pebble to +0.42 at Riviera. 

Critically, Aberg ranks sixth in Par 5 birdie or better percentage over his last 20 rounds. That placement represents a two-spot improvement over a 36-round sample size. 

He also ranks 13th and ninth, respectively, in approach proximity from 200+ and 175-200 yard ranges from the fairway. 

Even with poor placements in 24-round approach play and SG: ARG, Aberg still ranks 13th in my mixed condition model. Accordingly, I like the price on him to secure a top-20 finish.

H2H Matchup: Jacob Bridgeman (-110) over Ben Griffin

I was quite surprised by the pricing for this head-to-head matchup. By my mixed condition model, Bridgeman projects to finish 30 spots ahead of Griffin. 

Bridgeman’s irons are working wonders this season. He ranks sixth and fifth, respectively, in SG: APP over his last 24 and 12 rounds. 

Griffin places 54th and 41st in those categories. This season, the 2025 Ryder Cup representative has lost strokes ball-striking in four of five events. 

Bridgman has achieved that feat in every event this season. That sample includes +1.76 at Riviera compared to -0.41 for Griffin. 

Griffin’s lone advantage comes on the greens. He outpaces Bridgeman by 20 spots in SG: P over his last 50 rounds on fast, Bermuda greens. 

But that doesn’t matter if Griffin can’t hit the greens. Additionally, Bridgeman bested Griffin by 30 spots at this tournament last year. 

Lastly, Bridgeman posted better metrics on the Par 5s lately. Over the last 20 rounds, he ranks fourth to Griffin’s 14th in Par 5 birdie or better percentage. 

All of those factors lead me to believe Bridgeman should be a bigger favorite than the current pricing.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Consensus Picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational Public Betting Data

Most Bet First Round Leader (Tickets)

• Scottie Scheffler +1000
• Min Woo Lee +4500
• Chris Gotterup +4000
• Harris English +4000
• Keith Mitchell +6000

Most Bet to Finish Top 5 (Tickets)

• Scottie Scheffler -150
• Rory McIlroy +175
• Si Woo Kim +500
• Collin Morikawa +350
• Jake Knapp +550

Most Bet to Finish Top 10 (Tickets)

• Collin Morikawa +170
• Rory McIlroy -118
• Tommy Fleetwood +138
• Matt Fitzpatrick +170
• Jake Knapp +250

Most Bet to Finish Top 20 (Tickets)

• Jake Knapp +105
• Si Woo Kim -118
• Nicolai Hojgaard +130
• Collin Morikawa -145
• Shane Lowry +115