Best PGA Picks this Week for the BMW Championship

Below, bettors can find betting predictions for the BMW Championship.

The second playoff event sees Scottie Scheffler (+250) arrive as the favorite based on golf odds from BetMGM. He’s followed on the board by Sam Burns (+1400) and Rory McIlroy (+1600).

Following that trio, oddsmakers price seven players between +1800 and +2200. The group includes Matt Fitzpatrick, Hideki Matsuyama and Xander Schauffele.

Expert Golf Picks for the BMW Championship

Chris Gotterup (+2800)

Gotterup continued to post outstanding off-the-tee metrics at TPC Southwind. He gained for the seventh straight event, albeit with a slight decline to +0.27 per round.

However, he showed elite spike potential with the driver in four prior events. Starting with the John Deere and ending with the Rocket Classic, he cleared +1 SG: OTT in nine of 14 rounds.

Key to success at Aronimink is which approach play bettors get from Gotterup. A three-time winner this year, he spiked to +1 SG: APP at the 16th-highest rate over the last 30 rounds.

At TPC Southwind, he gained over +1.3 twice. In his win at TPC Scottsdale, he cleared 2+ SG: APP in two of four rounds.

His success at Torrey Pines South, the most comparable course this week, offers further optimism. In three rounds, Gotterup cleared +1.7 SG: Ball Striking in each round.

Poor putting resigned him to a T-18th at the Farmers, but the performance came on Poa greens. This week, he gets Bentgrass greens, upon which he gained in three of his last four events.

Jake Knapp (+4000)

Just in case Scheffler continues his dominance, my betting predictions are going to focus on players further down the board.

Knapp, since returning from injury, recorded two top-20 finishes in three starts. Last week at TPC Southwind, he finished T-7th while ranking amongst the best ball strikers.

He gained +0.91 SG: OTT – his fifth straight event gaining and best output over that span – and +0.63 SG: APP. In his first two rounds, Knapp cleared +1.3 SG: APP.

Over his last 10 rounds, Knapp gained +1 SG: APP six times. He posted even better off-the-tee metrics, clearing +0.8 SG: OTT in seven of those 10 rounds.

Plus, Knapp produced strong results at a correlative course to Bellerive: Torrey Pines. He posted two top-five finishes in four starts at the California track, another Rees Jones redesign.

If he can stay out of trouble off the tee and spike again with his irons, Knapp could contend at the lengthy Missouri track.

Kurt Kitayama Top-10 Finish + Ties (+280)

When placed upon the PGA Tour’s longest courses, Kitayama delivered outstanding ball-striking performances.

This season, he spiked to 2+ SG: Ball Striking at a 33.3% rate on such courses. Only one player – Sahith Theegala – recorded a higher rate.

Take it one step further, and Kitayama maintains his strong record. He cleared 3+ SG: BS at a 23.8% rate, tied with Xander Schauffele amongst BMW Championship participants.

The sample includes a backdoor top-10 at Aronimink last May. That week, Kitayama ranked 10th in SG: BS, clearing +1.5 SG: BS twice in four rounds.

It qualifies as one of four top-10 finishes this season. Kitayama’s three other successes came at Riviera, Doral, and Harbour Town. All emphasize above-average ball striking.

Putting remains the biggest question mark. However, Kitayama averaged +0.8 SG: Putting over the last six months on Bentgrass greens. It qualifies as his best average of any agronomy.

Given those factors, I predict Kitayama improves upon his T-12 at TPC Southwind.