PGA Picks This Week: Scheffler, Young Worth Looks

Below, bettors can find the latest PGA Championship odds and my PGA Championship picks for the 2026 tournament.

Most Likely to Win the 2026 PGA Championship

Based on current odds, Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the 2026 PGA Championship. At +450, Scheffler’s implied probability to defend his 2025 PGA title is 18.2%.

Rory McIlroy, winner of the 2026 Masters, is +850 to win his seventh major championship. His price implies a 10.5% probability he wins at Aronomink.

Best PGA Championship Picks 2026

Cameron Young (+1200) | Top-10 Finish (+120)

Young impressed me with his Masters performance, where he finished T-3rd. It marked his second top-five in his previous three major appearances.

While his recent PGA Championship form leaves something to be desired, he finished T-3rd in his 2022 debut. At Southern Hills, he finished only one shot behind winner, Justin Thomas.

We’ve also seen strong performances from Young at positional Northeastern setups. Last year, he finished T-7th at Philadelphia Cricket Club, a 7,120-yard par 70.

Aronomink offers slightly more distance at 7,280 yards. If the 2018 BMW Championship is any indication, putting will be a crucial stat at the Donald Ross design.

As of this writing, Young gained strokes putting in five of his first seven 2026 starts. Additionally, Young ranks T-11th in Par 4 scoring average on the PGA Tour this year.

Over three performances at Riviera, Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, Young led in SG: Par 4s amongst the 2026 Masters field.

With a win already under his belt in 2026, Young profiles as a contender for Aronomink.

Scottie Scheffler (+450) | Top-5 Finish (-110)

Scheffler will enter the PGA Championship having finished second in three straight events. It coincided with him restoring outstanding ball-striking metrics.

The four-time major winner cleared two SG: BS in two of his last three events. He also spiked to at least +1.3 SG: APP in the same two events.

By contrast, Scheffler failed to clear +1 SG: APP in any of his first six events this year. While he remains 21st in SG: APP for the year, the Texas native posted Scheffler-esque metrics in other stats.

Scheffler ranks sixth in scrambling percentage and first in bogey avoidance percentage.

He leads the field in Par 4 Efficiency while sitting eighth and second, respectively, from 401-450 yards and 451-500 yards.

Through six PGA Championship starts, Scheffler finished eighth or better five times. That sample includes a win and two additional top-five finishes.

At Oak Hill in 2023 – another Donald Ross Northeast design – Scheffler finished runner-up to Brooks Koepka.

Those factors lead me to predict Scheffler will defend his 2025 PGA title at Aronimink.

Kurt Kitayama Top-10 Finish + Ties (+650)

Three top-10s in 12 starts this year has me encouraged on Kitayama. If he doesn’t place inside the first 10 spots, it’s reasonable to expect a blowup performance.

Offering encouragement on Kitayama is his elite iron play and overall spike potential. He ranks sixth in SG: APP this calendar year, clearing +0.85 in four of his last six.

Since the 2026 Genesis Invitational, Kitayama gained at least five strokes in 10% of rounds and 4+ in 16.7% of those 30 rounds.

Those figures rank ninth and 10th, respectively, amongst players with at least 12 measured rounds.

Further driving confidence in Kitayama is his Par 4 scoring ability. He ranks 13th and seventh, respectively, in SG: Par 4s – 401-450 and 451-500 yards, respectively.

His lone major top-10 came at the 2023 PGA Championship. At Oak Hill – another Donald Ross Par 70 – he finished T-4th while ranking third in SG: APP.

At eighth in my model, I like the price on Kitayama to earn a fourth top-10 in 2026.

Tyrrell Hatton Top-20 + Ties (+188)

Hatton has now finished 20th or better in three straight major championships. The sample includes a top-five finish at Oakmont last year.

While Hatton lacks overwhelming PGA success – only four top-20s in 11 PGA appearances – the course change this year benefits him exponentially.

His best PGA finishes (T-10th in 2016 and 2018) came at long par 70s in the Northeast. He supplemented it with a T-18th at Oak Hill in 2023, another Donald Ross Par 70.

While his LIV results this season are lacking, he spiked to a T-3rd at the Masters in April. At Augusta, Hatton ranked fifth in SG: T2G and sixth in SG: BS.

Of the top six on the leaderboard, only Scheffler and Hatton ranked 16th or better in all three SG: T2G metrics (OTT, APP and ARG).

Those factors leave me encouraged by Hatton to continue his major success at Aronimink.

Russell Henley Top-10 Finish + Ties (+400)

The irons have let Henley down this season as he ranks 30th in SG: APP for the calendar year. Glimpses of old Henley arose, though, with a +2.4 SG: APP performance at the Masters.

It leaves me encouraged about the Georgia product at a course that should suit his game.

Lengthy rough should reward accuracy vs. distance off the tee – Henley leads the field in average distance from the edge of the fairway.

He also ranks sixth in bogey avoidance rate and third in Par 4 Efficiency: 401-450 yards. Tenth in scrambling rate from the rough and eighth in strokes gained further bolster his profile.

At Aronimink, you’re essentially banking on Henley finding his spike approach potential.

Over his last 12 rounds, he spiked to 3+ SG: APP in 16.7% of rounds, good for T-2nd in this field. He also spiked to 2+ in 33.3% of those 12 rounds.

In the eight rounds where he failed to clear 2+ SG: APP, Henley lost strokes on approach seven times.

Assuming that continues, he’ll either spike to a second straight major top-10 or finish outside the top-30. However, at fourth in my model, I like the price on Henley to achieve the former.