Best PGA Picks this Week for the Truist Championship

This week, the Truist Championship returns to Quail Hollow after a one-year hiatus. The latest PGA Tour signature event takes place one week before the 2026 PGA Championship.

Most Likely to Win the Truist Championship

Current golf odds price Rory McIlroy (+600) as the favorite to win this week. At his price, McIlroy – the 2026 Masters champion – owns a 14.3% implied chance to win.

Fresh off his win at the Cadillac Championship, Cameron Young (+850) sits closely behind McIlroy.

Oddsmakers price Xander Schauffele (+1100) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400) as the next closest challengers. All told, only seven players currently sit at +2500 or less to win at Quail Hollow.

Let’s dive into the selections. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

Best Golf Picks for the Truist Championship

Xander Schauffele (+1100) | Top-10 Finish (+100)

Schauffele lacks a victory this year, but he recorded two top-5 finishes in his last four starts.

Driving those successes? Outstanding ball-striking metrics. The two-time major champion averaged +2.1 SG: Ball Striking over his last four, including +3 at the Masters.

The metrics represent a stark increase from his early events. From the Farmers Insurance Open to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Schauffele averaged +0.49 SG: BS.

Now he heads to Quail Hollow, where he owns a brilliant record. In his last two non-major starts here, Schauffele finished runner-up both times (‘25 and ‘24).

Critically, only two players outpace Schauffele in SG: BS on “long” or “very long” courses over the last 12 months. He also ranks fifth in Par 5 Efficiency over the last 20 rounds.

Those factors lead me to believe Schauffele contends for his first win this season.

Adam Scott (+3000) | Top-20 Finish (+100)

Scott used brilliant third and fourth rounds at Doral to finish T-4th. In those rounds, the Australian gained nearly 11 strokes against the field.

He arrives at Quail Hollow leading the field in SG: APP. Scott also excels with his irons from over 200 yards, where nearly a third of approaches come this week.

Over the last six months, Scott ranks third in proximity from 200+ yards. He also plays the Par 5s very well, as he ranks 10th in efficiency over his last 20 rounds.

At Doral, Scott made birdie or better 11 times in 16 tries on those holes. Historically, a majority of the winner’s score at Quail Hollow comes from scoring on Par 5s.

Bettors have also seen Scott play well at Quail Hollow. In 2023, he finished T-5th at this setup. Plus, he gained at least one stroke putting in two of his last three visits.

Pair that record with his recent ball-striking success, and I like Scott at his price.

Justin Thomas (+5000) | Top-20 Finish (+160)

Thomas recorded his best ball-striking performance of his young season at Doral. He gained +1.14 SG: BS per round, including three rounds at +1.6 or higher.

A lackluster putting performance left him T-23rd at Doral. However, we’ve previously seen him excel on Poa Trivialis greens this season.

At TPC Sawgrass, Thomas gained +1.1 SG: Putting per round. He ultimately finished T-8th at the Pete Dye design.

The result at Sawgrass marks one of two events where he gained at least one stroke ball-striking per round. He also owns a prior win at Quail Hollow – the 2017 PGA.

Recent results since that win leave something to be desired. However, it’s worth noting he finished no worse than T-26th in four of those five starts.

Those factors leave me interested in the price on Thomas at a familiar course.

Best Truist Championship Sleeper Picks 2026

Gary Woodland (+6000) | Top-20 Finish (+188)

Woodland already has a win this season, which renders this price a touch surprising.

Plus, he started very well at Doral before imploding over the weekend. He gained +5.7 strokes against the field on Thursday and Friday before giving it all back.

Now he heads to a similar course. Essentially, you’re banking on Woodland playing more like the Thursday/Friday version over four rounds.

Only two events ago, Woodland finished inside the top-10 at Harbour Town. He also spiked to +3 SG: TOT or higher in two Masters rounds.

Over his last 16 rounds, Woodland spiked to 4+ SG: TOT 31.3% of the time. Only Young and Schauffele recorded higher spike rates.

Pair those metrics with a top-five finish here in 2021, and I like the price on Woodland to contend.

Ryan Fox (+10000) | Top-30 Finish (+138)

Fox gained strokes ball striking in all four rounds at Doral. He ultimately finished T-30th due to chipping and putting issues.

The performance leaves me bullish on the Australian ahead of Quail Hollow. Historically, we’ve seen crossover success between Quail Hollow and Riviera – both long, Par-71s.

Fox recorded a top-10 finish earlier this year at Riviera, his lone top-10 in 2026. While his cumulative metrics look somewhat disappointing, he dealt with a kidney stone removal in March.

The two-time PGA Tour winner showed at Doral it’s possible to get around well without extreme length off the tee. In his final round, he spiked to +2.9 SG: BS.

In his final round at Riviera, Fox spiked to +2.3 SG: BS.

We’ve also seen strong ball-striking performances from Fox at Quail Hollow. Last year, he averaged +1.93 SG: BS in his first three rounds before giving back 1.5 in the final round.

If his strong Poa putting record continues, he offers a decent option at lofty odds.

Truist Championship Consensus Picks & Betting Data