Best PGA Picks This Week for the 2026 U.S. Open

For the first time since 2018, the U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.

Scottie Scheffler (+400) is the current favorite to claim victory and complete the career grand slam. He’s tailed closely on the odds board by Rory McIlroy (+750) and previous U.S. Open winner Jon Rahm (+1100).

Below, bettors can find the top choices in the U.S. Open odds, along with my early U.S. Open picks. For the full set of odds, head to the BetMGM online sportsbook.

U.S. Open Odds

US Open Predictions 2026

Tyrrell Hatton (+3300) | Top-20 Finish + Ties (+150)

Hatton won at LIV Golf Spain in the final event before heading to Shinnecock Hills. He’ll aim to build upon a T-3rd at the Masters in April along with prior U.S. Open success.

The Englishman finished T-4th at Oakmont last year, one of two top-10s in the U.S. Open. His other success (T-6th) came at the 2018 U.S. Open, hosted by Shinnecock.

Dating back to last year’s Masters, Hatton owns one of the best ball-striking records. He averaged north of +1.4 SG: BS in five of his last six, clearing at least two in three of his last four.

Only six golfers outpace Hatton in strokes gained at majors since the 2025 Masters. Only one (Scottie Scheffler) bests him in SG: Ball Striking.

Although he missed the cut at Aronimink, Hatton showed he remains a strong iron player. Over two rounds, he averaged +1.57 SG: APP.

Those factors lead me to predict Hatton claims his first major championship at Shinnecock.

Russell Henley (+4000) | Top-20 Finish + Ties (+140)

Henley pleasantly surprised me with his performance at Muirfield Village.

Although he finished T-22nd, the Georgia native gained +0.61 strokes per round off the tee. It placed him 12th for the week, including eighth amongst players that made the cut.

Henley cleared +0.5 SG: OTT per round in three straight events. Bettors have also seen a spike in potential this year at Colonial and Augusta National.

The six-time PGA Tour winner spiked to +2.07 SG: APP at Colonial, clearing 1.6 in all four rounds. At Augusta, he finished at +2.4 with three rounds north of +2.7.

Henley also owns a strong U.S. Open record. In his last five U.S. Opens, he finished 14th or better four times, including a top-10 at Pinehurst in 2024.

As noted by Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy at the Memorial, hitting fairways is paramount at Shinnecock. Henley leads all PGA Tour players in driving accuracy this season.

Accordingly, I predict Henley owns a stronger implied probability than these odds indicate.

Chris Gotterup (+4500)

Hitting the fairway at Shinnecock Hills is a must for the U.S. Open. After reviewing a course flyover, I found that the fairways are expansive, making them easy to hit.

Gotterup, in general, lacks accuracy off the tee. This season on the PGA Tour, he ranks fifth in driving distance and 144th in driving accuracy.

But when you put him in the fairway, he transforms into a strong approach player.

Over his last 24 qualifying rounds, Gotterup ranks 16th amongst active golfers in fairway proximity when it’s either “difficult” or “very difficult” to gain on approach (min. 8 rounds).

At the 2026 PGA, Gotterup posted his best SG: Ball Striking average since his win at TPC Scottsdale. His +1.55 average ranked sixth in the field, while he placed fifth in SG: OTT.

Plus, we saw him post good results last year at Oakmont in two of his four rounds.

Only Rory McIlroy bested him in SG: OTT, while he finished ninth in SG: BS. In two of four rounds, he gained over 3.5 strokes against the field.

Those factors, along with his strong short game and spike putting potential, lead me to Gotterup at a lofty price.

Jon Rahm (+1400) | Top-10 Finish + Ties (+125)

Rahm, already a U.S. Open winner, finished as the runner-up to Aaron Rai at Aronimink.

It marked his first top-10 at a major since the 2025 U.S. Open. It came under different circumstances, though, as Rahm backdoored his way to a T-7th at Oakmont.

Last month in Pennsylvania, Rahm ranked fourth in SG: T2G, including third around the greens.

Above everything, Rahm’s past performances at the Open Championship fuel my interest. I’m treating Shinnecock as an Open Championship off the tee with Masters-esque greens.

The Spaniard finished seventh or better in three of his previous five Opens. The timeframe includes a runner-up finish at Royal Liverpool in 2023.

Amongst U.S. Open players who have started at least five Opens, Rahm owns the fourth-highest top-five rate. He also owns a win at Augusta National.

As a two-time winner on LIV this season, I like how Rahm’s game profiles for Shinnecock.

Matt Fitzpatrick Top-20 Finish + Ties (+100)

Fitzpatrick struggled to play his best golf at the majors this year. However, he showed me something last week in Canada that offers some encouragement.

At TPC Toronto, Fitzpatrick gained +1.19 SG: APP. It marked his best iron performance since the Valspar Championship, where he gained +1.48 in a victory.

Before that win at the Valspar, Fitzpatrick spiked to +1.14 SG: APP at the Players. He cleared +1.3 in two of his four rounds, which he also achieved last week.

The Englishman already owns a U.S. Open win and produced a good finish at the 2025 Open. Last year, he finished T-4th at Royal Portrush.

A couple of other stats offer encouragement on Fitzpatrick. This year, he ranks seventh in par 4 average on “difficult” or “very difficult” courses.

He also paces the field in SG: ARG since last season, when it’s “difficult” or “very difficult” to gain in that stat category.

At 10th in my model, I like the price on Fitzpatrick to place inside the top-20.

Rory McIlroy Top-5 Finish + Ties (+220)

McIlroy came so close to winning the U.S. Open on two occasions recently. Now, he gets a course that mitigates his driving accuracy and rewards spike iron potential.

In his Memorial press conference, McIlroy emphasized fairways are paramount at Shinnecock. It strikes a similar off-the-tee tone to Muirfield Village, where McIlroy improved his accuracy.

Since the Masters, McIlroy has averaged a 50.4% driving accuracy rate. At Muirfield, which features incredibly penal rough, his average rose to 53.6% with three rounds north of 50%.

It qualified as the only tournament since Augusta where McIlroy finished north of 50% driving in at least two rounds.

Dating back to last year, McIlroy paces the field in percentage of rounds clearing 2+ SG: APP. This year, he ranks second in Par 4 scoring average under the harshest scoring conditions.

The irons saw a big leap at Muirfield. His +1.07 SG: APP average qualified as his best output since Riviera.

At first in my model, I predict McIlroy posts a second major top-five this season.