Best PGA Picks this Week for the Valero Texas Open

Only the Valero Texas Open separates golf bettors from the season’s first major: The Masters.

Current golf odds price three players as co-favorites at +1600: Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley and Tommy Fleetwood. The board is crowded at the top with 13 players priced at +2800 or shorter.

Amongst the other notables: Jordan Spieth (+1800), Si Woo Kim (+2200) and Hideki Matsuyama (+2500).

Let’s dive into the selections. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

Best Golf Picks for the Valero Texas Open

Sepp Straka (+2800)

Key to success at TPC San Antonio is outstanding tee-to-green play with a high emphasis on SG: Approach.

Straka checks both boxes this season. He ranks seventh in SG: T2G driven by a sixth-place rating in SG: APP.

In his last outing, Straka finished T-8th at the Players Championship. It marked the second straight event where he gained at least +0.8 SG: APP per round.

Incredibly, his +1.77 strokes gained per round from tee to green qualified as his second-best outing of the season. At TPC Scottsdale, he gained +2.16.

Straka improved with each appearance at TPC San Antonio as well. In 2023, he finished T-22nd while ranking 16th in SG: APP.

With four top-20s in his last five starts, Straka’s iron play should lend itself to this track.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)

Matsuyama began the 2026 season strong before slowing down a bit in Florida.

Still, the Masters champion has shown spike potential with his irons and creativity around the greens. Over the last four months, Matsuyama ranks seventh in SG: APP.

While he gained only +0.56 SG: APP per round at TPC Sawgrass, he simultaneously showed a high ceiling. In three of those four rounds, Matsuyama gained over a stroke per round.

In five appearances at the Valero, Matsuyama never lost strokes on approach. He also gained from tee to green four times, including +2.8 per round in 2024, to reach T-7th.

This year, Matsuyama leads the field in both scrambling and sand save percentages. He also ranks second in bogey avoidance percentage.

While the driver remains a concern – 87th in good drives percentage – the lack of penal rough at TPC San Antonio should mitigate Matsuyama’s weakness.

At third in my mixed condition model, Matsuyama warrants attention at a familiar course.

Thorbjorn Olesen (+5500)

Olesen showed a glimmer of hope last week in Houston. At Memorial Park, he gained 5.9 strokes on approach on his way to a T-14th.

That event marked the first time Olesen gained at least five strokes on approach since last October. Last week, only four players outgained Olesen with their irons.

Over the last four months, the Dane ranks 15th in SG: T2G and ninth in SG: APP. He also ranks 15th in bogey avoidance percentage and has posted strong results in San Antonio.

In two starts at the Oaks course, Olesen finished T-5th (2025) and T-14th (2024). In both starts, Olesen gained at least seven strokes T2G in both appearances.

Most encouraging about Olesen is his previously demonstrated ability to score on difficult Par 5s. Over the last three years, he ranks second in Par 5 birdie or better rate on “difficult” setups.

All told, Olesen ranks seventh in my mixed condition model. In my estimation, that gives Olesen a higher ceiling than his 1.8% implied probability suggests.

Keith Mitchell (+3500)

If course history holds true this week, Mitchell has a great chance to win.

The Georgia alum started four times at TPC San Antonio and never missed the weekend. In his last three starts at the Oaks course, Mitchell finished inside the top-20 all three times.

He enters this week fresh off a top-20 at Memorial Park, buoyed by a strong final round. There, he gained +4.2 SG: APP, the third time in his last four starts he cleared four.

Mitchell also spiked to +1.7 SG: T2G per round at Memorial Park. That output marked the second time he cleared 1.5 in his last four starts.

Over the last four months, Mitchell ranks fifth in SG: T2G. Further encouraging is that he ranks 17th in bogey avoidance and 21st in Par 5 birdie or better percentage.

Currently, 13 players sit above Mitchell on the odds board. However, he places 10th in my model, so I like Mitchell’s price to earn his second Tour victory.

Valero Texas Open Consensus Picks