Best PGA Picks this Week for the Valspar Championship

The Florida swing concludes this week with the Valspar Championship from Innisbrook’s Copperhead course. 

Current golf odds price Xander Schauffele (+1000) as the pre-tournament favorite. Schaffuele finished third at the Players, one of two top-10s in his last three starts. 

Other notables in the field include defending champion Viktor Hovland (+1600), Justin Thomas (+2500), Jordan Spieth (+2500) and Brooks Koepka (+2500).  

Let’s dive into the selections. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Best Golf Picks for the Valspar Championship

Brooks Koepka (+2500)

If at first you don’t succeed, try again. 

That’s how I’m approaching Koepka, who finished T-13th last week as one of my Players picks. The formula for success remains the same after Koepka placed fourth in SG: APP at Sawgrass. 

His iron performance qualifies as one of multiple successes since his return. He ranks third, third and second, respectively, in SG: APP over his last eight, 24 and 50 rounds. 

In four starts this season, he gained over a stroke per round twice. That includes six spikes to at least +1 SG: APP per round over his last eight rounds. 

For Innisbrook, the scoring strategy is to bully the long Par 5s and survive on the rest. At Sawgrass, he finished -7 on the Par 5s, equaling winner Cam Young’s output. 

Most importantly, he finished -1 on the Par 3s, a seven-shot improvement from the Cognizant Classic. 

If he can just putt to field average this week, I like Koepka’s chances to win at Innisbrook. 

Sahith Theegala (+4000)

If the irons remain steady and Theegala regains his par-5 scoring ability, he offers higher upside than these odds would suggest. 

Theegala gained at least one stroke per round on approach in consecutive starts. Over his last 24 measured rounds, he ranks eighth in SG: APP. 

Over a smaller, eight-round sample, he improves to seventh in SG: APP. Last week at TPC Sawgrass, Theegala produced mixed results with his irons. 

In two rounds, he gained at least +2 strokes on approach. In the other two, he lost at least 0.75 to the field. 

Most interestingly, Theegala saw a decline in his Par 5 efficiency at Sawgrass. He finished the week -6 on those 12 holes compared to +4 on all others. 

Before that tournament, Theegala dominated the Par 5s. He played the Par 5s at Bay Hill to -10 (100% of his final score) and the Par 5s at Riviera to -8 (100% of his final score). 

For the entirety of 2026, he ranks fourth in Par 5 scoring average. Lastly, we’ve seen Theegala play well at Innisbrook, notching a top-10 finish in 2022. 

At 12th in my model vs. 16th on the board, I like the price on Theegala this week.

Justin Thomas (+2200)

Thomas completed a seismic turnaround from his performance at the API to his output at the Players. 

A pair of 79s at Bay Hill saw Thomas miss the cut. Then, he finished T-4th at TPC Sawgrass, ranking seventh in both SG: APP and greens in regulation percentage. 

If not for an ill-timed triple on Saturday, Thomas likely would have contended for a win at Sawgrass. Even more encouraging is his -9 output on the Par 5s. 

Now he heads to a course where he previously recorded brilliant results. In his last four starts at the Copperhead course, Thomas finished 10th or better three times. 

That sample includes a runner-up finish last year and a T-3 in 2022. Most impressively, Thomas has never lost strokes ball-striking to the field in eight Valspar starts. 

If the iron play is truly back and Thomas continues his Par 5 dominance, I like his chances at a track that he called “one of my favorite courses of the year.” 

Max Homa Top-20 Finish + Ties (+275)

The question with Homa is whether he can sustain his spike approach potential beyond just one round. 

Homa finished T-13th at the Cognizant and T-32nd at the Players Championship. In both events, he gained over three strokes on approach in two rounds. 

The issue? He gained on approach only once in the other six rounds. 

Still, Homa has the game to place well at Innisbrook, where he finished T-6th in 2021. Only once in his last seven starts has Homa lost strokes putting while flourishing with the irons. 

Homa ranks 20th in SG: APP over his last eight rounds, up from 26th over a 24-round sample. Plus, he played the Par 5s at Sawgrass to -9 after playing the Par 5s at the Cognizant to -11. 

While I question his ability to win the tournament – generally, Valspar winners have recorded a top-10 in the lead-up to their win – Homa’s key metrics should allow him to play well. 

That renders him an intriguing option at 26.7% implied probability to finish inside the top-20.

Valspar Championship Consensus Picks

Valspar Championship Public Betting Data: Placement Markets

Most Bet First Round Leader (Tickets)

• Austin Smotherman +4500
• Matti Schmid +9000
• Jacob Bridgeman +3000
• Ricky Castillo +6000
• Ryo Hisatsune +4000

Most Bet to Finish Top 5 (Tickets)

• Jacob Bridgeman +400
• Brooks Koepka +500
• Justin Thomas +450
• Xander Schauffele +200
• Viktor Hovland +320

Most Bet to Finish Top 10 (Tickets)

• Jacob Bridgeman +200
• Ryo Hisatsune +300
• Xander Schauffele +100
• Brooks Koepka +250
• Justin Thomas +225

Most Bet to Finish Top 20 (Tickets)

• Jacob Bridgeman +100
• Ryo Hisatsune +150
• Brooks Koepka +125
• Sahith Theegala +160
• Austin Smotherman +200