The Players Championship is one of the best weeks in golf.
The strongest field of the year will compete on one of the most iconic courses in the country in TPC Sawgrass, and it typically delivers a great event.
Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +450, while defending champion Rory McIlroy is second at +1400.
Key metrics to prioritize at TPC Sawgrass include Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Birdie-or-Better Gained, Bogey Avoidance, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, and Par-5 Scoring.
*odds as of March 10
Players Championship Prediction
Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the Players Championship with a 18.18% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 6.67%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Players Championship Best Bets
Ludvig Aberg Outright Winner (+2500)
Aberg’s young career has been on a nice trajectory, from appearing on a Ryder Cup team before even playing in a major to winning a PGA Tour signature event at the Genesis Invitational last year.
The next logical step is winning an even bigger event, and the Players Championship would certainly qualify.
With that said, his season didn’t get off to the best of starts, with a T-37 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am being the best finish in his first three events. But, he’s appeared to turn a corner, especially after a T-3 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he gained 1.7 strokes on approach, the most in a single event since his win at the Genesis last year.
TPC Sawgrass is also a good fit for him, as he lives in the area, so he has played it countless times. He also finished solo eighth here in 2024.
Brooks Koepka Top-20 Finish (+200)
Koepka is trending upward in his return to the PGA Tour, highlighted by a T-9 finish at the Cognizant Classic the last time he teed it up.
His ball-striking has been superb; the issue has been his putting. After losing over 1.5 strokes in his first two events back, he was slightly positive at the Cognizant. This is a good sign going into this week.
Koepka also plays his best in the biggest events, and this certainly qualifies.
Tom Hoge Top-40 Finish (+220)
Often, players just love certain courses and always seem to play well on them, regardless of current form. That is the case for Hoge at TPC Sawgrass.
In his last six appearances, he’s finished T-33 or better five times, including T-3 finishes two out of the last three years. In 2023, he set the course record, shooting a 10-under 62 in the third round.
At plus money, this feels like great value.
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