Players Championship Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Rory McIlroy, a two-time winner and defending champion of The Players Championship, once described host course TPC Sawgrass thusly: “It doesn’t really suit any style of game, but everyone feels like it’s a challenge.”

Rickie Fowler, another past champion, explained it this way: “You have to think your way around here … you can’t just overpower the golf course.” Yet another winner, Matt Kuchar, once said, “You have to put the ball in the right spots. It’s very much an angles golf course.” And another, Justin Thomas, added, “It’s just a very demanding golf course mentally.”

Then there’s Tiger Woods, who won twice despite often struggling on this venue throughout his career – in relation to his usual standards, that is. His take: “You’re going to get some weird hops and funky lies, standing on your head hitting shots.”

Put it all together and we can understand why TPC Sawgrass is considered perhaps the most democratic golf course on the annual schedule, a place where a winner must do everything right – physically, mentally and technically. All of which helps explain how the world’s two best golfers have combined to win each of the last three editions of this tournament.

This year, though, Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy both enter with more question marks than exclamation points.

Scheffler is fresh off a second consecutive result outside the top-10 after previously racking up 18 straight. McIlroy withdrew from last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational with a back issue, though he remains in the field as of this early-week writing.

Instead, I’m searching elsewhere for the hot hands.

As I’ve written in this column, form matters more than any individual metric at TPC Sawgrass — and I’ll admit to perhaps taking that lesson too literally, as I’ve loaded my card with not only players who have displayed high-level form over the season’s first two months, but in most cases, very recent high-level form, as I’m hoping for a carryover from Bay Hill not too unlike what we witnessed two years ago, when Scheffler and Wyndham Clark went 1-2 in back-to-back weeks.

Let’s get to this week’s selections, starting with a player who isn’t the best in the world, but has resembled that description over the past month.

The Players Championship Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Collin Morikawa (+1800)

The answer to the question of which golfer is the best in the world doesn’t waver just because Scheffler failed to contend for a couple of weeks in a row. The answer to who is playing the best, however, is entirely more fluid and subjective enough that a wider variety of players can fill in the blank for this response.

I reserve the right to change my opinion without any notice, but at this very moment, I have a difficult time coming up with someone other than Morikawa. It’s not just the recent results – he followed his win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a T-7 at Riviera and solo fifth at Bay Hill – but how he’s come by them, which is so impressive.

We’ve long known that when the two-time major champion has it going, he’s one of the world’s best iron players. That wasn’t on display as much last year, but he’s now fully back, ranking fifth in the approach category. The difference for Morikawa is apparent, not with the irons, but the flatstick.

As we’ve offered up for so many other ball-strikers over the years, he doesn’t need to putt better than everyone else in order to win; he just needs to putt better than the majority. At Pebble, he ranked 44^th in that category, but remained on the plus side of strokes gained; at Riv, he was 23^rd; and last week, he was 13^th.

A player cannot win with his irons alone, but buoyed by even a lukewarm putter, it can be the recipe for success. Add in the fact that he’s trying to copy McIlroy’s winning formula of Pebble/Sawgrass from a year ago and that he’s fresh off his best Players performance, a share of 10^th place, last year, and there’s very little to dislike about Morikawa bringing his current brand of world-class play to a course which should suit him at a time when he’s playing his best golf in a few years.

It wouldn’t surprise me if this winds up being the most popular play in the outright market, so my advice is to make your investment before this price starts shrinking. 

Aggressive Pick: Min Woo Lee (+3300)

There’s probably a better way to put this, but I’m not sure there’s one that gets the point across as well: So far this season, Lee has appeared more “serious” about the game.

I was reticent to write this, just because I don’t want it to sound like he didn’t care or wasn’t trying in previous years, but the guy who’s developed into a fan favorite based on his social media presence and “let him cook” persona, looks from afar like a player who’s now intent on letting his clubs do the talking.

That doesn’t mean he can’t still have fun and if you’re a fan it doesn’t mean you can’t still follow him around in a chef’s hat. But at 27, the man known as Dr. Chipinski seems ready to start making a run at some bigger tournaments. That should bode well at this one, where he’s already 3-for-3 in making the cut, including a T-6 three years ago, when he played in the final pairing alongside Scheffler.

Coming off results of 12^th or better in each of his three most recent starts, Min Woo might not strike his irons as well as Morikawa, but on a course where all facets of the game matter, his potent driver/wedges/putter combo should once again serve him well. After reportedly flirting with LIV Golf in the offseason, a victory at the PGA Tour’s flagship event would likely help prove that he made the right decision.

The Players Championship Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Viktor Hovland (+650)

You know, it’s funny: We don’t often think of Hovland as an elite-level iron player in the same way we think about, say, Morikawa or Thomas, but he’s now gained strokes with his approach play in 24 of his last 25 starts, the lone outlier being last year’s Open Championship.

Perhaps that’s because – and I’ll readily admit this might just be a me thing – whereas the first image that pops into my head of those other guys is a perfectly flighted pitching wedge into a tucked pin, I tend to think of Hovland as more of a long- and mid-iron threat. It’s his proficiency with those clubs which makes me interested in Hovland anytime they’re playing a par-72 with four very reachable par-5s.

In fact, scoring on those holes should once again separate the contenders from the pretenders and the thought of Viktor lacing 5-irons into the TPC Sawgrass greens already has me daydreaming of a double-digit under-par total on the par-5s alone. He’s been all-or-nothing at this one in the past, with a pair of top-10s sandwiched by a T-62 and two MCs, but I’m willing to take “all” over “nothing” in a landslide this week. 

Aggressive Pick: Rickie Fowler (+800)

Not that I wasn’t completely transparent above, but I’ll admit there’s a very specific formula for every player on my card so far: 1) Solid performance/results so far this season; 2) More heavily weighted performance/result at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week; and 3) Past performance/result at The Players.

Fowler checks all the boxes and while he’s yet to seriously contend for a title, he has finished 28^th or better in all five starts, including a season-best T-9 last week. Rickie still gets a lot of grief from the haters, because – I don’t know? Because he was overhyped as a young pro? Because he’s never quite reached his potential? Because people have something against the color orange?

I’ve never really understood the pushback toward a guy who’s been a terrific ambassador for the game and persevered through plenty of down years. In any case, this week he returns to the site of his greatest accomplishment, winning this tourney 11 years ago.

In the time since, a T-13 in 2023 has been his lone top-40 result, but rarely during those years was he playing as well as he is right now. Fowler still needs a strong finish or two to qualify for the Masters – not to mention a few other majors this year – but I love the way he’s playing and I love the idea of chasing his ceiling this week.

The Players Championship Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Russell Henley (+300) and Sepp Straka (+375)

I’ll offer up a couple of plays in this category, since they’re both fairly chalky, but Henley and Straka have some commonalities, besides both being University of Georgia products.

With all of the strokes gained data available these days, we rarely look at old-school stats such as driving accuracy and greens in regulation, but those are metrics which tend to work here and they’re ones in which these two specialize.

So far this season, Henley ranks eighth in accuracy off the tee, while Straka is 50^th; last year, they were 12^th and 30^th, respectively. And while both are middle of the pack in GIR this season, I’ll chalk that up to playing some more difficult courses in the signature events, while many others haven’t been.

Last year, though, Straka was 24^th and Henley was 26^th. You get the idea: Each of these guys keeps it in play and doesn’t make too many unforced errors. Fun fact: They only have one top-10 combined in this tourney, but plenty of results just outside that barrier. I like the idea of both of ‘em breaking through this week. 

Aggressive Pick: Aaron Rai (+600)

In three previous appearances at this event, Rai has a pair of top-20s and nothing worse than 35^th. Much like the two players listed above, he’s a guy who hits a ton of fairways and greens.

He might not own the pop necessary to win at a place where anything from 10- to 20-under has been the winning total over the past decade, but he’s the type of guy we might never see on TV all week before he closes with a birdie on the last hole Sunday afternoon to shoot 66 and finish in a share of eighth place. Hey, that’ll cash it.

The Players Championship Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Harris English (+210)

I just know that somebody, somewhere is an ardent English top-20 bettor who can’t believe they’re bad luck in failing to cash a single ticket this season. In six starts, he hasn’t finished worse than 28^th place … but also hasn’t finished better than 22^nd.

Players often explain that they’re striving for this type of consistency, but the fact remains: A single top-three result and five MCs might be better rewarded than the half-dozen twenty-something results he’s posted so far. All of which should beg this question, as well: If he can’t finish inside the top-20, why am I picking him for a top-20 this week?

Well, besides the fact that I like his high-level floor here, I have a feeling that posting a top-20 might mean a little something more to him than it would another player. Not that everyone isn’t going to grind for the best potential spot on the leaderboard, but you know that if English sees himself at T-21 on one of those big scoreboards with three holes left to play in the final round, he’s going to give it everything he’s got to move up just one more notch on the board. 

Aggressive Pick: Ryan Gerard (+250)

His red-hot start to the season came to a screeching halt with a missed cut at the API last week, but not all MCs are created equally. Gerard was actually ranked second in iron play over the first two rounds at Bay Hill, but the other clubs weren’t cooperating.

That said, I love the idea of going back to him here, especially at a longer number than if he’d played well. And while some might be concerned that he’s playing this tourney for the first time, I’d counter that concern by reminding you that he was T-8 in his PGA Championship debut just 10 months ago.

The Players Championship Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Max Homa (+140)

Slowly but surely, things are starting to come around for the six-time PGA Tour winner once again. He’s not exactly contending for titles again, but he has cashed top-40 tickets in nine of his last 13 starts.

His record at this one essentially mirrors his play at the time. In 2022 and ’23, when he was playing some of his best golf, he finished T-13 and T-6, respectively. In 2024 and ’25, when he clearly wasn’t, he missed the cut. This time around, his game is somewhere in between, so while I don’t want to bank on him for a top-10, I don’t believe he’s destined for another MC, either.

A plus-money top-40 play makes a lot of sense for a player who’s been doing just about everything just a little above average this season. 

Aggressive Pick: Tom Hoge (+220)

Back in the day, even just a decade or two ago, it felt like there were more course horses than there are in this era. You just knew that every year, Steve Stricker was going to show up and contend at the John Deere Classic or Charley Hoffman was a lock to cash a nice check at the Valero Texas Open.

Maybe it’s the fact that fewer top players compete at non-signature events these days, maybe players don’t have the same warm fuzzy feelings at certain courses as their predecessors. Whatever the case, Hoge is an old-school kind of guy and he’s the type who still fits at certain courses.

The rotation at The AmEx is one of those spots and TPC Sawgrass is certainly another. He’s posted third-place finishes here in two of the last three years – easily his best results during that span – and in his other five appearances has three other top-40s and has never missed the cut. For a guy who’s posted a few solid results already this season, I like the idea of keeping history on our side.

The Players Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Adam Scott (+5500)

Much of what I wrote above for Theegala can be applied to Scott, as well. He’s shown glimpses of brilliance over the past two months, and he isn’t a terrible idea for a full-tournament play, but I decided I wanted to see if Scott might catch lightning in a bottle in the opener this week. In five starts this season, he’s posted four sub-70 rounds and ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in R1 scoring average.

Aggressive Pick: Sahith Theegala (+6600)

Since most of my selections are based on the hot-hand theme, I might as well take the most recently hottest hand to keep things going this Thursday. On Sunday, Theegala posted the round of the day at Bay Hill, making seven birdies against just a single bogey to shoot 6-under 66. It’s not as if this was some one-off round, either.

Theegala has been knocking on the door toward elite-level status once again, now with three top-10s already this season. I certainly don’t mind him for a four-round investment in the top-10/20 range, but I like this idea even better, as we try to see if he can once again best everyone else for a single round.