Puerto Rico Open Predictions: Top-Tier, Mid-Tier, Lower-Tier Picks

This is March… which can only mean one thing: Golf Sicko Season has officially started.

Oh sure, all the casuals will be paying attention to this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, featuring all of the PGA Tour’s best players, but the real ones will be locked into the year’s first opposite-field event, the Puerto Rico Open.

I’ve broken down the field into three tiers, with options and an official play from each. Let’s get right to it.

Puerto Rico Open Predictions

Top Tier (+3500 and shorter)

It’s really tough to ignore the Rasmuses (Rasmi?) this week, as Rasmus Hojgaard (+1200) and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+1800) are clearly the class of this field. Hojgaard is fresh off a top-10 finish at the Cognizant Classic, while RNP was runner-up at this tournament last year.

If there’s a reason to fade either or both, it’s that this event is essentially Win or Bust, as I can’t imagine they’re seeking consolation prizes this week. It’s all about the points, a few years of status, and gaining entrance into signature events.

This is simply a stepping stone, much as it once was for a fellow Scandinavian named Viktor Hovland, and therein lies the potential fade in that perhaps each will play so aggressively for the victory that it winds up hurting ‘em. But I’ll admit that might be wishful thinking.

Let’s not mince words: Since winning the John Deere Classic a few years ago, Davis Thompson (+2200) has been extremely underwhelming, especially for those of us who believed he was on a Cameron Young type of trajectory. The ball-striking numbers are solid this season, but the putter isn’t, which doesn’t make me overly optimistic at a place where 26-under won last year.

I’m more intrigued by Matt Wallace (+3300), whose lone PGA Tour win came at an opposite-field event three years ago (and with a Hojgaard finishing runner-up, if you’re looking for a little symmetry). He’s better than most observers realize, though maybe not quite as good as he believes, as he was desperately disappointed by not being named to last year’s European Ryder Cup team when he might not have been in the next five after those selections.

The pick: Ricky Castillo (+2800)

It felt like every time I looked up at the TV screen this past weekend, Castillo was either stuffing another iron shot or pouring in another birdie putt. The result was a top-five finish and while there’s danger in chasing a spike performance, I’m buying the notion that this is simply part of a career progression for a guy who was one of the top collegiate players in the country and won in his Korn Ferry debut.

If Ben Griffin was last year’s out-of-nowhere superstar and Jacob Bridgeman is already this year’s candidate, I’ll take Castillo for next year, if it doesn’t happen before then. A win here would be an important start.

Mid-Tier (+4000 to +10000)

I listed David Ford (+4500) in last week’s Cognizant preview, but I don’t think I could’ve predicted any of what happened, especially in the first round, when he made a quadruple-bogey and later followed it with three consecutive hole-outs, the last one only for par. It all ended in a share of 32^nd place, showcasing his wares, if not also the growing pains of going straight from college to the big leagues. My theme for this event is buying talent, especially talent with some decent value, and Ford checks the right boxes.

It’s easy to look for reasons why Luke Clanton (+5000) can play well, because we’ve seen his ceiling, but it’s been tough to keep the faith when he’s looked like a shell of the guy who was banking top-fives before ever turning pro.

I think Zach Bauchou (+6000) is a very talented player, but I don’t love this value, and I’m not quite sure his skill set matches this event, where longer hitters prosper. Granted, Brice Garnett and D.A. Points each won in the past decade without being bombers, but the majority are, so I’ll likely wait for an opposite-field event on a shorter track to add Bauchou as an outright play.

Sam Ryder (+6000) and Adam Hadwin (+6600) and were both players I liked last week for largely the same reason – without full status, they each need to take full advantage of any opportunities they receive.

Unfortunately, they both missed the cut, but I’ll go right back to ‘em for some smaller investments here, though shorter hitters are at an obvious disadvantage on this 7,500-yard venue.

I’ve been bullish on Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+6000) ever since interviewing him on the day he graduated from the Korn Ferry Tour and clinched his PGA Tour card. Most players are overcome with joy in this situation – happy, relieved and grateful. I won’t suggest that the Canadian wasn’t all of these things, but he sounded like a dude who just wanted to get right back to work. He’s shown he belongs so far, with a pair of top-20s and some really strong tee-to-green play.

Anytime it’s a weaker field with a potential winning score of better than 20-under, I like a little outright nibble on Taylor Montgomery (+6600), who remains one of the better putters around.

The pick: Adrien Dumont de Chassart (+4000)

Again, I’m investing in talent this week, and we know how good ADDC can be when he’s playing his best golf. He owns a ton of offensive firepower, ranking 16^th in driving distance this season, and a lofty ceiling, as we’ve seen on the KFT circuit. Two top-25s in five starts so far doesn’t exactly scream win equity, but results of T-6 and T-26 at this event show that the course fits his game and the price is right in relation to some others in this field.

Lower Tier (+10000 and longer)

Well, if we want bombers, there aren’t many (any?) who hit it longer than Christo Lamprecht (+10000). The very small, teensy-weensy problem is everything else, as he’s made just one cut in five starts and ranks outside the top-100 in every major statistical category. That said, you’re not gonna find a perfect candidate in the triple-digit range of an opposite-field event, so if you’re just buying potential, the South African certainly has it.

There’s a big number to the name Jimmy Stanger (+10000), despite him hanging around for three days at PGA National before a dreadful final-round 76 left him in a share of 32^nd place. That bruise is probably going to leave a mark, but at least we’re getting a player at this price who’s shown some sort of recent form.

I am fully aware that I’m probably fighting a losing battle in my belief that Frankie Capan III (+35000) is going to turn into a solid PGA Tour player someday, because other than a few brief moments of brilliance, there’s a pretty decent sample size to prove otherwise so far. That said, if we can’t back him at a massive number in this field, then when can we back him? I’ll take a small outright ticket stamped with SUCKER on it.

The pick: Danny Walker (+15000)

Not sure I’d call myself a Walker truther, but every time I watch him, I come away liking what I see. If you squint really hard, you can see a little Jake Knapp and if you open your eyes just a little more, you can see some Austin Smotherman – comps that are meant as complimentary for Walker. Neither the performance nor the results suggest he’s on the verge of anything special, but again, I’m not so sure special exists in this price range. I don’t mind just taking a guy I think is pretty good and seeing what happens.