RBC Heritage Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

No rest for the weary, as I just drove six hours from Augusta to the home office and immediately started grinding over RBC Heritage research.

I’ll wax poetic – or hack mundane, as the case may be – about Rory McIlroy’s historic victory elsewhere on this website, but I’ll keep this intro uncommonly short, so we can get right to it.

Here’s what you need to know: First off, McIlroy isn’t in the field – and this wasn’t some last-minute decision after he slid his arms into the green jacket. Unlike his withdrawal two years ago, which essentially meant he’d forfeited $3 million in PIP bonus money, there’s no longer such a penalty, nor is it a requirement to compete in the signature events.

Next, this is one of my personal favorite tournaments, and while it gets stymied a bit in the Masters afterglow, the laid-back atmosphere of Hilton Head might be the perfect antidote to the Augusta pressure-cooker.

Host venue Harbour Town Golf Links is a 7,191-yard par-71 course that favors precision over power. That aspect used to be reflected in the winners’ list, with names such as Brian Gay, Jim Furyk, Brandt Snedeker, Graeme McDowell, Matt Kuchar, Satoshi Kodaira, C.T. Pan and Webb Simpson among the light hitters who finessed their way to victory here.

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler might be an outlier, just because he does everything so well – and was doing it all even better at this time last year – but even previous winners Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth are cut from the same longer-than-you’d-think cloth.

Even so, I’m focused on ball-strikers and don’t mind a fade on many of those who seriously contended at the Masters. With all of that in mind, let’s get to the picks.

RBC Heritage Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Shane Lowry (+2800)

Let’s just keep those narrative plays going. On the heels of McIlroy’s career slam clincher, I like the idea of going with his Irish buddy, who was there after the playoff to embrace him in a massive bear hug and – I’m just going to make an assumption here – perhaps assist in the post-round revelry. Look, it was an ugly weekend for Lowry in Augusta. A third-round 72 left him in a share of sixth place entering the final day, but two closing bogeys left him in as ornery a mood as I’ve ever seen him.

Things only got worse on Sunday, as he closed with an 81 to drop all the way into 42nd place, but the long-term ball-striking has been very good and I expect him to pick up a win at some point in the very near future and he’s already got a couple of top-threes here.

Aggressive: Denny McCarthy (+5000)

At the Masters, McCarthy was just a tad better than field average off the tee, with his irons and around the greens, and – stop me if you’ve heard this one before – much better than the field with his flatstick. Long known as the PGA Tour’s best rock-roller, he’s become more than a one-trick pony, as his iron play, especially, has continued improving.

If (or perhaps when) he’s going to win, I think it’ll come at a place like Harbour Town or TPC River Highlands, where his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a disadvantage. His T-29 result last week puts him right in the sweet spot of players I want to target here, which is to say, coming off solid play without seriously contending. 

RBC Heritage Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Collin Morikawa (+200) and Xander Schauffele (+250)

Yes, I’m the guy who listed Scheffler as my favorite outright last week and yes, I’m listing two of the favorites this week for top-fives right here, but don’t erase my chalk just yet. While I don’t love the individual numbers on either Morikawa or Schauffele, I like the idea of putting them together as a top-five parlay in this shortened field.

Morikawa’s iron play continues to be exemplary, and while he’s never cashed a top-five ticket here, he does have a pair of top-10s. Schauffele has found his game quicker than I’d expected, coming off a T-8 at the Masters that could’ve been a title contention if he’d started faster in the opening round. He finished solo fourth here two years ago. If you’d rather be more conservative than a top-five parlay, then try ‘em for top-10s together, but I think both will be on the leaderboard throughout the weekend.

Aggressive: Sungjae Im (+600)

I’m not completely buying into the notion that Im’s game is back after a T-5 in Augusta, considering he’d been outside the top-50 in five of his previous six starts. We do know, however, that he’s about as streaky as they come, often parlaying one strong result into a few more immediately after.

His short game, in particular, has been very good even when the results haven’t been there, and with these small greens, there’s a greater miss percentage with the irons, so we’re going to need to target some creative wedge players. Sungjae has gone 12th-7th-21st-13th here the past four years. 

RBC Heritage Top-10 Picks

Conservative: J.T. Poston (+375)

I’m admittedly probably a little too top-heavy with my selections above, so I wanted to offer some bigger numbers for the last two finishing position targets. Problem is, Poston isn’t nearly as long as I thought he’d be. Showing up at 60/1 in the outright market, the oddsmakers have apparently noticed the same thing I have; namely, that Poston’s recent performances have outclassed his results, with solid ball-striking numbers only yielding finishes between 12th and 53rd in each of his last nine starts. That tells us there’s a high floor, at least – and that floor gets a lot higher on this course, where he’s posted four previous top-10s in six career starts.

Eric Cole (+900)

There’s some benefit to selecting a few players here who didn’t qualify for the Masters. The problem, of course, is that in a small-field signature event, there aren’t too many options. When last we saw Cole, he was playing some solid golf, finishing 26th-15th-12th in the three events prior to the Masters. He was T-33 last year, but for a guy who doesn’t like taking a week off, I like playing him when everyone else wishes they could.

RBC Heritage Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Mackenzie Hughes (+300)

The strokes gained numbers show Hughes isn’t well above or below most tournament field averages in any individual statistic, but he has gained around the greens in seven of his last eight and 10 of his last 12, which again should be a decent barometer of low-end success this week. Coming off a 10th place result in his most recent start in Houston, a course which theoretically shouldn’t suit his game, is an encouraging sign that bigger things are on the horizon. 

Aggressive: Cam Davis (+450)

He hasn’t been very good lately, with five MCs in a row, but I like taking a chance on Davis in this market. Much like Tony Finau and Gary Woodland, the Aussie is often an anomaly – a long hitter who tends to play some of his best golf on shorter courses. Throw in the usual dose of breezes here and I don’t mind the idea of getting on him before he starts playing better and the price gets shorter.