RBC Heritage Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

AUGUSTA, Ga. – After winning his first Masters title last year, Rory McIlroy was able to play unburdened this past week in becoming the fourth champion in tournament history to go back-to-back.

Most of us – OK, all of us – will never know what it’s like to compete at Augusta National after removing a giant monkey from our backs, but we’ve all experienced the freedom that comes with alleviating the weight of a specific responsibility.

All of which brings me to the RBC Heritage preview you’re reading right now.

As you can see from the above dateline, I’m writing this piece from Augusta, unburdening myself before the long journey home.

You know, exactly like Rory. Uh, or not.

Speaking of the Masters champion, he will not be making the short trip to Hilton Head, where runner-up Scottie Scheffler – the RBC winner from two years ago – is once again atop the odds board and could be a card-killer if he plays at Harbour Town the way he did on the weekend at Augusta National.

Instead of chasing the world’s No. 1-ranked player at a short number, I’ll go a little deeper with my picks, despite the admitted truncated analysis before hitting the road.

RBC Heritage Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Shane Lowry (+4500)

At one point during McIlroy’s press conference on Sunday evening, he explained that he’d been leaderboard watching throughout the final round – not only to see where he stood, but because if it wasn’t him that was going to win, he wanted to put a green jacket on one of his best buddies. Instead, it was an incredibly messy day for Lowry, who dropped from fourth place on the board to a share of 30^th after posting an 8-over 80.

While I get that such a performance might not exactly inspire confidence in Lowry one week later, I’m banking on a combination of inspiration from Rory’s win, a solid history at this event and perhaps a little DGAF mode engaged after spending four days in the Augusta pressure-cooker.

He’s been a bit all-or-nothing at Harbour Town, with three top-10s and four results outside the top-40 prior to last year’s T-18. Since his 2019 Open Championship victory, he’s won the 2022 BMW PGA Championship, which was shortened to 54 holes due to the death of Queen Elizabeth II (with McIlroy and Jon Rahm hot on his heels at the time) and the 2024 Zurich Classic, when Rory largely carried the team.

He’s had his obvious troubles closing, but it’s been too long since his last 72-hole stroke-play win. I think it’s coming soon and I believe this is a decent price to target this week. 

Aggressive Pick: Denny McCarthy (+15000)

There are 28 players in this week’s field who are coming off a bye week instead of competing in the most stressful event of the season. While most bettors will show some recency bias toward those they just spent four days watching at Augusta National, I like the idea of finding some value in those who are undoubtedly coming in fresher.

McCarthy doesn’t have a terrific record here, with a best finish of T-13 and a bunch of other middling results in seven starts, but I did see something that I liked from him recently. After struggling with his game for much of the early part of this season, he finished T-12 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open on a course which shouldn’t suit his game at all.

That’s always a signal for me; it’s one thing if a player fares well at a place where he always does, but playing well on a contrasting course often portends better things moving forward. I love the chance of taking a chance on a few big numbers this week, possibly catching the Masters hangover crowd napping. 

RBC Heritage Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Russell Henley (+275) and Patrick Cantlay (+400)

If you’re scoring at home, that’s now 14 top-20s in the last 16 starts for Henley, who went 66-68 on the weekend in Augusta to finish in a share of third. In fact, of those last 16 starts, one-quarter have been top-fives, which helps prove his elite-level floor. I still have a tough time believing in Henley in the outright market due to his low propensity for winning and consistently short price, but I like buying his floor, especially at a venue where he owns three finishes of 12^th or better in the last five years.

Meanwhile, Cantlay – who played alongside Henley in Sunday’s final round – owns a history which is way too impressive to ignore. In eight career starts, he owns seven finishes of 13^th or better, six top-10s and five top-threes. He’s done everything but win here, however with results of T-7 and T-12 in his last two starts, it shouldn’t come as a shocker if it happens this week. 

Aggressive Pick: J.T. Poston (+1000)

If you only search the winner’s list at Harbour Town over the past few years, it essentially reads like a who’s who of elite players – Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth are the last four. Dig just a bit deeper, though, and you’ll find that this place is tailor-made for a specific kind of player.

Guys who favor precision over power and putt their best on Bermuda greens tend to fare well here each year and nobody epitomizes that like Poston, who has five finishes of 11^th or better in seven career starts, including each of the last two years. With enough big names in the field at this signature event, he might go overlooked, but this is the exact place he should pop. I don’t mind a nibble in the outright market, but if you want to remain a bit cautious, he’s a nice top-10/20 play, as well. 

RBC Heritage Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Maverick McNealy (+275)

Sometimes this stuff isn’t rocket science. Alright, so it’s never anything close to rocket science, but sometimes these plays are staring us in the face. We love form and like course history, so McNealy is an easy play considering he has both. He’s finished top-four here in two of his last four starts and is fresh off a Sunday 67 at Augusta, when he ranked top-10 in both iron play and putting.

Aggressive Pick: Max Homa (+600)

Part of my role during Masters week is interviewing players post-round for the radio broadcast and postgame show. Depending on the player and the timing and other factors, there might be a few dozen of my media colleagues huddled around a player’s podium in the flash area or it might be less.

On Friday, after Homa posted a second-round 70, it was way less – as in, just me. We talked for a few minutes and while he hadn’t shot anywhere close to the best score of the day, he seemed really pleased with his performance.

“After the par save on 7, that was like a dream ball-striking,” he said. “It’s been like that a lot more, you know, not so much in tournament rounds, but in the practice rounds and lead-up to it. It was cool to see that, and it felt easy there for a while.”

Two days later, he wound up finishing in a share of ninth place, cementing his invitation for next year and, I have to imagine, giving him loads of confidence moving forward. 

RBC Heritage Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Matt Wallace (+333)

Let’s get a little weird with the top-20 plays in this limited-field event. When last we saw Wallace, he was busy finishing in a share of second place at the Valero Texas Open after nothing better than T-40 in his previous four starts.

That’s very on-brand for the Englishman, who rarely shows any momentum from one event to the next, which perhaps should be a warning sign that he might not follow with anything special. Trends are meant to be broken, though, and with one top-20 in four previous appearances here, I like taking a small chance on him as one of the 28 guys coming in fresh. 

Aggressive Pick: David Lipsky (+650)

One of the shorter hitters on the PGA Tour, Lipsky ranks 156^th in driving distance, but he’s been doing everything else very well, leading to an impressive ranking of 27^th in SG: Total. There aren’t a ton of PGA Tour venues where a shorter hitter can thrive unless he plays his absolute best, but this is certainly one of ‘em. At a big price this week, I like Lipsky in this market and don’t mind playing him up the ladder.

RBC Heritage First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jordan Spieth (+3300)

At this point, I should probably just have an auto-function key that pastes Spieth’s name in for a FRL play. For the uninitiated, here’s my thought process: I love FRL tickets on high-variance players and that might be the best way to describe Spieth right now.

On a course where he won his last title four years ago, coming off a week he insisted was a better ball-striking performance than during his 2015 Masters win, I don’t mind him for four-round investments, but still think he makes the most sense for a single day.

Aggressive Pick: Harry Hall (+6000)

Maybe it’s because he wears a hat like Bryson DeChambeau used to wear and sort of stomps around the golf course like him, but I sometimes have to remind myself that Hall is a much different sort of player. He’s not short off the tee and isn’t exceedingly accurate, but he owns one of the better short game/putting combos around.

Anyone who frequently gets hot with the flatstick will be on my FRL radar and coming off a missed cut at Augusta, I like the idea of playing Hall here in his tourney debut.