Rocket Classic Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Some PGA Tour events are more predictable than others, and while there’s hardly a hard-and-fast rule about these things, the more predictable ones are those where distance is a greater separator, when the strategy of bang-it-and-go-find-it-again works best.

Few tourneys offer a line of demarcation like the Rocket Classic, which is the same event that used to be called the Rocket Mortgage Classic (but you probably guessed that already).

The No. 1 prerequisite for success at Detroit Golf Club is (usually) an ability to hit the golf ball really, really far. Cam Davis has won here twice in the first half-dozen editions. Bryson DeChambeau and Tony Finau have won, too. Runner-up finishers include Matthew Wolff, Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Young, Taylor Pendrith, Davis Thompson and Min Woo Lee. All big hitters, in case you were wondering.

Of course, there are exceptions to every rule.

Four months ago, the Mexico Open qualified as one of these events. And yet, one of the game’s longest hitters, Aldrich Potgieter, lost in a playoff to one of the shortest in Brian Campbell.

Here’s hoping history doesn’t repeat itself this week, as I’ll be focusing on the bombers amongst my selections. I’ll also be largely focused on fading the bigger names – and there are plenty of ‘em in the field. We’ll have to avoid the likes of Collin Morikawa (+1200), Keegan Bradley (+1800), Patrick Cantlay (+1600), Ben Griffin (+2000) and Hideki Matsuyama (+2800), but I love the mid-tier this week and that’s where I’m starting with my outright selections.

Rocket Classic Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Taylor Moore (+6600)

Allow me to expound upon that above idea on eschewing the bigger names. Those who are playing well right now (Bradley, Griffin) might be looking to strike one more time while the literal irons are hot, though fatigue will be an issue coming off a major and signature event in the past two weeks. Those who aren’t playing their best right now (Morikawa, Cantlay, Matsuyama, Finau) are clearly booking a flight to Detroit in search of something they’re hoping to find before the end of the regular season, which is suddenly approaching very quickly.

That leads me to the mid-tier, which includes plenty of players capable of winning – and at bigger prices, due to those names at the top of the board. I’ll readily admit that this week’s outright, top-five, top-10 and even top-20 selections are fairly interchangeable, but Moore wound up as my first play based on an intriguing upside and extremely strong course history, finishing 10th-4th-6th the past three years. Throw in the fact that he fits the profile at 28th in driving distance and while his iron play leaves something to be desired, we’re never going to find a perfect candidate at this price. This isn’t my usual strategy, but let’s go with history over form and hope it works here. 

Aggressive: Jake Knapp (+8000)

Whether you’re asking those who understand and study these things on a regular basis or someone with only a rudimentary knowledge of the golf swing, show ‘em Knapp’s move through the ball and they’ll instantly note his effortless power, which in turn has elevated his swing into the conversation about the “prettiest” in professional golf. Based on that, we’d likely believe he owns better tee-to-green performance numbers than he actually does.

Instead, Knapp’s stats tend to bounce around without any real consistency. That’s alright, though. For as much as professional golfers preach consistency, it’s those brief spurts of brilliance which yield more riches, and Knapp has proven he owns that kind of upside. Based on the facts that he’s cooled off over the past two months and we’ve got some big-name players in this field, his number looks a little juicier than we might’ve expected, so it feels like a buy in this market. 

Rocket Classic Top-5 Picks

Aggressive: Max Greyserman (+700)

It was late last year when Greyserman asserted himself as a potential force on the PGA Tour, posting top-four results in four of his final six starts. He’s yet to reach that level this year, but he’s trending in the right direction, with three straight top-25 results in some big-boy fields before falling outside of that range on Sunday. The Duke/UNC rivalry in them probably won’t like this comparison, but I’ve always thought there were a lot of similarities between Greyserman and Ben Griffin.

That’s not to suggest the former is about to become a two-time winner and top-20 player in the world, but I think there’s a lot of room for upward mobility in the coming months – and that could/should start this week. His outright number (+3500) feels a bit too short, but he still might make my card in that market, too.

Aggressive: Chris Gotterup (+900) and Thorbjorn Olesen (+1100)

These were my favorite two outright plays for the RBC Canadian Open three weeks ago – and if you actually remember that, well, thanks for reading, Mom. Spoiler alert: Neither one of them won that tournament, but my rationale remains the same, as each one has been performing well above his baseline for a while now. It’s actually a bit shocking that Olesen doesn’t own better results this season. His ball-striking numbers are very good and his putting stats have been through the roof in five of his last seven starts, though only one of those performances yielded a top-25 finish. If you’re a fan of the oxymoronic betting term “positive regression,” then Olesen should be a target for this and other upcoming events. At some point, the results have to start matching the performance.

As for Gotterup, few hit the ball further, as he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in driving distance this season, and few have enjoyed a floor as high as his over the past few months. He owns top-30 results in six of his last seven starts, including a T-23 at the U.S. Open, when his name was on the first page of the leaderboard well into the weekend. Of course, with this play, we’re now hoping the high floor turns into a high ceiling, but I do believe he has the offensive firepower to make that happen. 

Rocket Classic Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Byeong-Hun An (+500)

If Tommy Fleetwood can almost win a PGA Tour event, then An can certainly come close, too. I’ve listed him here for a top-10 and there might not be a better course for him on the PGA Tour. He fits the profile as a big hitter and he’s been gradually trending in the right direction. The putter needs to heat up to at least lukewarm – which isn’t often a given for him – and he’ll have to overcome a couple of poor results in his last two starts in Detroit, but this one feels like a natural progression.

Aggressive: Stephan Jaeger (+550)

It wasn’t a great week for Jaeger at the Travelers Championship, as he followed a missed cut at the U.S. Open with a T-34 result. The numbers, though, continue to mostly look good – especially for this event, as he ranks 60th in driving distance and is top-40 in iron play and putting. He’s another whom I don’t mind in the outright market, just as I don’t mind a more conservative top-20 play, depending on how you’re building your card.

Rocket Classic Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Harry Hall (+160)

Consider this a classic case of the oddsmakers paying too much attention. Without a serious title contention, you might think Hall’s name could slip through the cracks and keep his odds from getting too short, but five consecutive top-25s and eight of nine inside the top-35 have gotten their attention. He’s +3500 outright at a place which might not wholly suit his game, but anytime a guy putts the way Hall has been, he’s worth a thought. I’d imagine he’ll be a popular ceiling play this week, but I’d prefer to bank on him keeping the floor intact.

Aggressive: Cam Davis (+300)

They say there’s nothing sweeter than a repeater – at least, one of my golf buddies says that whenever he strings together two bogeys in a row – but we’ve seen a few reruns lately, with Scottie Scheffler successfully defending his Memorial Tournament title and Keegan Bradley winning the Travelers Championship for a second time in three years. Well, all Davis has done in Detroit is post two wins, which happen to sandwich a pair of other top-20s. Sometimes the best betting plan is to not hurt yourself trying to overthink it. Davis hasn’t been great lately, but he’s as course-horse as they get at this one.

Rocket Classic Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Ricky Castillo (market not yet available) and Rico Hoey (market not yet available)

This feels like a nice spot to target a few young players with potential who tend to bomb it off the tee and know they need to step on the gas pedal soon in order to retain PGA Tour status and possibly make a playoff push. Quite honestly, there’s not a ton separating them, as the solid results have been mixed in with plenty of disappointing ones and their biggest advantages are with the biggest stick in the bag. Castillo’s iron play has been much better lately; Hoey hits more fairways, but putts it worse. The top-40 market should have plenty of value this week.

Aggressive: Austin Eckroat (market not yet available)

He’s admittedly struggled this season and doesn’t fit this course really well – I know, I know; those are exactly the first words you want to read on a player – but a share of FRL honors at the Travelers Championship led to a T-25 result which featured some solid iron play, especially in the final round. Really, though, this one is all about taking a shot on a big price, even if it is in the top-40 market.

Rocket Classic First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Davis Thompson (+5000)

Plenty of prognosticators will let you know whenever they get something right, but I’m more inclined to tell you about what I get wrong. Save your jokes: I get that it’s a lengthy list. Perhaps near the top of it, though, is my preseason bullishness on Thompson, whom I thought would win another PGA Tour event and be in the conversation to make the U.S. Ryder Cup team. Unless he’s on the verge of a massive two-month stretch, the latter appears unlikely, however I still remain cautiously optimistic about his game. On a week when many players in this field are coming off a bye, I like a Thursday play on a guy who teed it up at last week’s Travelers Championship and has those competitive juices flowing a bit. Thompson had a solid week there and knows how to go low – especially at this event, where he was FRL in 2021, runner-up last year and owns seven consecutive sub-70 rounds. At the risk of being wrong again, I don’t mind a four-round investment, either, but my favorite play is for that FRL repeat.

Aggressive: Trey Mullinax (+12500)

In his last five individual starts, Mullinax has posted opening-round scores of 66 or better three times. His results aren’t great at this tourney – a T-37 and two MCs in three appearances – but I love the fact that he’s been hitting the ground running on Thursdays. He’s another who fits exactly what we’re looking for here, as he ranks 11th in driving distance on the season.