Rocket Classic Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Look only at the field for this week’s Rocket Classic, being contested in the PGA Tour’s dog days of summer between the year’s final major championship and the FedEx Cup playoffs, and it’s easy to let your mind wander as to just why so many big names are showing up for what appears to be one last hurrah in Detroit.

Maybe there’s some old-school type of phone tree, where one big-name player calls another, urging him to commit with the overture, “Let’s do it for the Motor City fans!” prompting that player to sign on the dotted line and call a few more buddies.

Ah, not exactly.

The truth of the matter is twofold: For most players, even those unworried about retaining their PGA Tour status, there’s plenty still on the line – from improving FedEx Cup playoff standing to impressing a Presidents Cup captain. And for the likes of Cameron Young and Chris Gotterup, players with multiple wins this season, atop the odds board, this spot in the schedule simply offers a timely date to tee it up.

Whatever the case, the result is a more impressive field than most, if not all, of the previous seven editions of this tourney, a nice sendoff before it theoretically gets wiped away from the impending schedule.

With that in mind, let’s not venture too far down the board for this week’s outright plays, as we start with a pair of selections who know how to win.

Rocket Classic Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ben Griffin (+2800)

This feels like a perfect spot to play Griffin, who’s had some previous success on Donald Ross courses, has proven he can close on the PGA Tour, is priced at a very fair number and – most importantly – appears to be trending in the right direction.

After failing to finish better than 19th in his first 11 starts of the season, he now has six such results in his last 10, as he’s been positive strokes gained in approach play for six straight and returns to a place where he was T-13 a year ago. Those are a lot of factors weighing in Griffin’s direction this week, as he attempts to claim a fourth victory in the past 16 months.

Aggressive Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)

I initially considered going deeper down the board with a player such as Davis Thompson (+5500) or Michael Kim (+8000) – each of whom I’ll list for finishing position plays below – but those numbers were less enticing than that of Matsuyama, a guy I like this week for many of the same reasons I’ve selected Griffin.

With three top-25s in five starts here, including – again, like Griffin – a share of 13th last year, Hideki has seen a modicum of success in Detroit, while starting to hit his stride late in the current season. Last week’s T-3, which featured a chip-in for eagle on the 72nd hole, was his best result since a playoff loss in Phoenix, but it comes on the heels of a pair of 14th-place finishes in his two previous starts, which shows he’s heading in the right direction these days.

At a longer price than Patrick Cantlay and just a bit shorter than the likes of Harris English and Nicolai Hojgaard, I’ll take the proven commodity at a price that makes sense.

Rocket Classic Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Akshay Bhatia (+700)

We’ve seen some longshots cash outright tickets at the Rocket over the years, with Cam Davis (twice), Nate Lashley and Aldrich Potgieter taking four of the previous seven editions of this event at either close to triple-digit prices or well into that range. Even so, it feels like the bottom of the top-tier is a good place to target this week, as we try to avoid a win from the Cameron Young/Chris Gotterup/Xander Schauffele group at the top.

I easily could’ve exchanged Bhatia for either Griffin or Matsuyama above, but he’s my third-favorite choice based on the number, so I’ll list him here despite some value in the outright market. Akshay shared runner-up honors here two years ago, and prior to missing the cut at The Open, he went T-17 at the U.S. Open and T-5 at the Travelers Championship.

Aggressive Pick: Davis Thompson (+1000)

Here’s a fun little quandary: I love everything about Thompson’s game and have been calling for him to rise into something close to superstar-level status for the past 18 months or so, yet I still don’t quite fully trust him to hit a great shot when he absolutely needs one and I certainly don’t trust him to hole a crucial putt.

All of which might say more about me trying to hang on to a fleeting idea that he’s ready to become a top-20 type of player than it does about Thompson himself, though I remain enamored by his potential. Last week’s T-7 – his best finish since March – likely kept his price from drifting longer, but like Bhatia, he was also a runner-up two years ago and I do think this is a good course for his skillset.

Rocket Classic Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jackson Koivun (+235)

As I outlined earlier this week, winning on the PGA Tour at a young age doesn’t always put a player on the fast track to superstardom. That doesn’t mean I’m opting for a career-long fade of Koivun, just that I think we should collectively temper expectations a little bit. But… maybe not this week. With his 3M Open victory, the 21-year-old not only solidified his spot as PGA Tour member for a few more years, he moved to 70th on the FedEx Cup list. That’s important for a few reasons.

The first is that reaching the playoffs will give him at least another start – if not a few more — to show off his stuff before the season is over. In turn, that might be his path to the U.S. Presidents Cup team. For all those who are (rightfully) calling for Koivun to be added to the roster right now, it might be difficult to see it that way a month from now if he barely plays in August.

That should all leave him motivated for more and playing with the proverbial house money this week. A second straight win might be asking too much, but I can certainly see him on the first page of the leaderboard once again.

Aggressive Pick: Ryo Hisatsune (+650)

Ever since his hot start to the season, Hisatsune’s results haven’t been great, but the ball-striking has remained very good. He ranks 30th in SG: Off the Tee and 48th in SG: Approach. What it all means is, if he putts well, he should contend – and in fact, his five best putting performances of the year (Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach, Phoenix, Valero and John Deere) have resulted in his five top-10 finishes. It’s tough to predict when and where he’ll putt well, but the upside is once again apparent this week.

Rocket Classic Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Michael Kim (+300)

The following two things can both be true: 1) Kim ranks as the PGA Tour’s No. 1-ranked tweeter, often giving fans some valuable insight into the current state of his game; and 2) We shouldn’t read too much into such self-analysis, if only because access to his thoughts are more readily available than most other players.

Professional golfers love telling us they’re close to having their best stuff, because they usually believe it – and if they don’t, then perhaps they can manifest such success by simply voicing it publicly. Part of being a bettor is analyzing when a player is trying to speak it into existence as opposed to knowing he’s on the verge and while I’m usually skeptical in these situations, when Kim posted, “My game is super close” on Sunday evening, I was largely inclined to believe him, especially coming off a week that included a 59 in the second round.

Aggressive Pick: Billy Horschel (+350)

At his best, Horschel has always been an elite-level flusher, the type of player who can win PGA Tour events on the strength of a ceiling performance with his irons. He’s done that eight times in his career – most recently at the Corales Puntacana Championship two years ago – and at age 39 is showing signs that it can still happen. Over his last five starts, Horschel’s iron play has once again been elite, though the results are a mixed bag, as he’s posted a pair of top-20s and three MCs.

What has me excited for this week, though, isn’t just that approach play, but the fact that he’s long been a momentum type of player – the kind of guy who usually builds toward his best results. I’m officially taking him for a top-20 here, but if you’re seeking a longshot with proven credentials – again, that’s sort of my theme for the week, with outrights on Griffin and Matsuyama – then his 100/1 price is more than a little palatable.

Rocket Classic Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Marco Penge (market not yet available)

I was as bullish on Penge as I was on any player entering this season – especially from the pool of PGA Tour first-timers. It hasn’t quite gone as according to plan for him, from an early-year club manufacturer switch to injury and illness which shelved him for a while. If we’ve learned anything from the investment process, though, it’s that we shouldn’t sell at a low price, so I’m inclined to figuratively buy more shares of Penge with just a few weeks remaining to retain his PGA Tour privileges.

Aggressive Pick: Neal Shipley (market not yet available)

By all measures, it’s been a brutal rookie season for Shipley, who’s cashed top-40 tickets in exactly two of his 18 starts. He nearly got there last week, but countered a terrific performance with the irons by posting another awful performance with the wedges and putter. If the Pittsburgh native is ever going to break through, it’s going to have to be soon and you’d think it could happen at a Rust Belt event such as this one, where he finished T-20 in his lone previous start two years ago.

Rocket Classic First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jake Knapp (+4500)

There are few players who have an extra gear like Knapp, who’s been known to go extremely low without much warning. That includes this past weekend, when his 9-under 62 was the low round on Sunday at the 3M Open. After missing time due to a wrist injury, I’m very close to buying in for four-round investments once again, but I’m more intrigued by the potential for another score in the low-60s to make a run in the FRL market this week.

Aggressive Pick: Harry Hall (+8000)

If you’d picked Hall at the beginning of this year to become a breakout performer, well, you would’ve had some company in that conversation. Just a year ago, he was a not-so-outside-the-box candidate to make the European Ryder Cup team, but things haven’t been going nearly as well this season – especially over the past few months, as he’s failed to finish inside the top-25 in his last eight starts.

Much of that can be traced to his slower starts. A year ago, Hall ranked third on the PGA Tour in R1 scoring average at 68.24. This season, he’s 125th at more than two-and-a-half strokes worse in opening rounds. That said, I always like targeting great putters for single-round investments and Hall qualifies, even if he’s been more erratic on the greens lately. Coming off a T-13 here last year, I’m hoping for a little early-week mojo.