Scottie Scheffler’s Superpower is His Floor, Not His Ceiling

There are plenty of ways to understand Scottie Scheffler’s dominance over the last four years, but I’m not sure if any of the stats I’m about to list below speak louder than one of the wagers currently available in the BetMGM sportsbook.

On the eve of his season debut at this week’s American Express, Scheffler owns longer odds to win five or fewer tournaments (+100) than six or more (-125).

To review, just in case those numbers didn’t hit home: Oddsmakers believe there is a five percent greater probability that he wins six or more than five or fewer.

Maybe those numbers shouldn’t be so flabbergasting when we consider that he triumphed seven times (in official PGA Tour starts) two years ago and six times last year, but those are two of just the 11 occasions since 1980 when a player won six or more times in a season.

Tiger Woods, of course, accomplished this feat six times, with only Vijay Singh, Tom Watson and Nick Price also making this list.

And yet, simply examining Scheffler’s win rate doesn’t really do justice to those aforementioned accomplishments.

For as lofty as his ceiling is, Scottie’s superpower is a floor which remains higher than almost any golfer to ever play the game and certainly is comparable with Tiger – and Tiger alone – in the modern era.

Let’s start with this: In the past four years, he’s had 87 official PGA Tour starts and made the cut in 83 of ‘em – including every time he’s played in the past three seasons. We have to go back to the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship to find the last time he wasn’t around for a weekend and while the influx of no-cut tourneys obviously helps this cause, his streak of 64 in a row trails Xander Schauffele by eight, but is 44 more than anyone else.

You want a higher floor? In that same time frame, Scheffler has posted 76 top-25 results, a rate of 87.4 percent. Even McIlroy, whom it seems rarely finishes outside the top-25, doesn’t hit 80 percent.

Most impressive, though, is his penchant for consistent high-end results. Over the past four years, Scheffler has finished in the top-10 at a rate of 70.1 percent and his top-five percentage is 54.0.

Compare that with Woods, and we’ll find that Tiger finished top-10 in 52.6 percent of his starts and top-five in 43.1 percent. Now, you might contend that it’s not fair to compare Prime Scottie with Full Career Tiger – and you wouldn’t be wrong. If we take into account that Woods’ prime years were between 1997 and 2009, we find that he posted a top-10 result 68.0 percent of the time and top-five 58.4 percent, each of which is very comparable to what Scheffler has accomplished over the past four seasons.

None of which, obviously answers the question so many want answered, especially with this win total prop on the board: Is he going to get to six victories again this season?

My initial thought is that, yes, he probably will. Scheffler presumably hasn’t lost his fastball in any singular category, and he spoke during the offseason about working on his strength and conditioning to ensure better endurance toward the end of the season.

That said, I’d be more interested in investing in his high-level floor than any ceiling. No results outside the top-25? Top-10s (or even top-fives) in every major? Sign me up.

For as proficient as Scottie has been in getting himself into the winner’s circle, he’s been even better at simply hanging around somewhere on the leaderboard on a Sunday afternoon. There’s no reason to think that will change as he embarks on a new season this week.