Sony Open: 3 Expert Picks this Week at Waialae

The PGA Tour returns this week for the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. 

In terms of the course, Waialae is a short par 70 that heavily emphasizes strong putting. From Daniel Berger: “Guys that putt the best out here seem to have the best chance to win.” 

Current golf odds at BetMGM see Russell Henley (+1200) arrive as the pre-tournament favorite. Other players near the top of the board include Ben Griffin (+1600) and J.J. Spaun (+1800). 

Let’s dive into the selections. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Sony Open

Daniel Berger (+6600)

Berger’s biggest issue in the latter half of last season was that he couldn’t chip to save his life. 

But his outstanding ball-striking record and course history render him a viable longshot in my estimation. 

Over the last 12 months, Berger ranks 20th in good drives gained percentage, eighth in SG: APP and 17th in SG: TOT at Waialae (last five years). 

While Berger missed the cut here in 2025, he recorded a pair of top-14 finishes in three prior starts. That includes a T-7th in 2021. 

He won at Pebble Beach in 2021 and at Colonial in 2020. Both offer correlative setups to Waialae as short par 70s that emphasize iron play. 

If Berger can spike with the putter – he gained +1.34 strokes per round in his final 2025 start – the iron play and course familiarity should help him outperform his 1.5% win equity. 

Mac Meissner (+6600)

Meissner lacks an in-depth course history like other players near the top of the board. However, he managed a T-21st here last year while gaining over six strokes on approach.

Since joining the Tour, Meissner has excelled on short par-70s. Over the last two years, he ranks fourth in SG: TOT and eighth in SG: Ball Striking on qualifying setups. 

His best finish last year – a runner-up at the Wyndham Championship – came on a correlated setup. He also placed inside the top five at Colonial in 2024. 

In my model, the biggest knock against Meissner is his good drives gained percentage. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 76th in the field. 

But if you sample only his last 12 months on these short par 70s, he jumps all the way to fifth in the field. 

Since October, Meissner has finished no worse than T-27th in four events. That run includes a top-20 at the RSM Classic and Sanderson Farms Championship. 

Given those performances, I predict he contends this week at Waialae. 

Chris Kirk (+4000)

Kirk, who owns a pair of top-3 finishes in his last five visits to Waialae, offers intrigue based on recent metrics. 

A T-41st at the RSM looks less than encouraging. However, the event provided Kirk’s worst putting performance of the year since the Memorial last May. 

Conversely, Kirk ranked second for the week in SG: APP. That output further indicates recent ball-striking performance. 

He gained at least 1.7 strokes from tee to green in three of his last four events. 

That sample includes a T-5th at the Wyndham Championship, where Kirk ranked second for the week in SG: T2G. Additionally, he ranks fourth in SG: TOT at Waialae over the last five years. 

If the putting comes close to average this week, Kirk likely outperforms his market expectation.