While not the typical start to the PGA Tour season with a PGA Tour signature event with The Sentry, the season will begin this week with the Sony Open in Hawaii.
A number of stars are in the field, including Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, Collin Morikawa and Robert MacIntyre.
Waialae Country Club in Honolulu is one of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour at just over 7,000 yards. Being on the water, the wind will likely play a factor. When looking at players this week, having success at other short courses on the water will make a lot of sense.
As of Tuesday, Henley has the best odds to win at +1100.
When it comes to key metrics, I will be prioritizing Strokes Gained: Approach, Proximity 125-200 yards, Par-4 Scoring, GIR Gained, Birdes or Better Gained, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda).
*odds as of Jan. 13
Sony Open in Hawaii Prediction
Russell Henley is predicted to win the Sony Open in Hawaii with a 8.33% implied probability, according to betting markets. Ben Griffin is next at 5.88%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets
Hideki Matsuyama Outright Winner +1800
The first week of the season is always a tough one, given the lack of recent data. With that said, Matsuyama has performed very well in the past, having one of the best course history at Waialae.
Besides winning the event in 2022, Matsuyama is 8-for-8 when it comes to cuts made and has four top-20 finishes, including a T-16 a year ago.
Although it was over a month ago, Matsuyama won the last time he teed it up at the Hero World Challenge in Bermuda, which is also a course on the water.
Matsuyama ranks high in several key metrics, including ranking in the top 5 for Proximity 150-200 yards, according to Fantasy National.
Russell Henley Top-10 Finish +120
Although he has yet to win this event, he has owned Waialae. In the last five editions, he has the most Strokes Gained, and overall, he has five top-15 finishes. Henley finished T-10 a year ago and T-4 in 2024.
Like Matsuyama, Henley ranks high in a number of key metrics. According to Fantasy National, he’s No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, No. 4 in Strokes Gained: Par-4’s and No. 3 in Good Drives Gained.
While the price isn’t great, it is plus-money for the No. 5 player in the world to finish inside the top 10 at a course he’s done extremely well at.
Eric Cole Top-10 Finish +225
According to Data Golf, Waialae CC is second only to Augusta National in terms of predictive course history. This means if a player has played well here in the past, he’s likely to continue that success.
While he’s only played here three times, Cole has back-to-back top-20 finishes. He finished T-13 in 2024 and a solo fifth in 2025.
Cole isn’t overpowering off the tee, but that won’t hurt him this week.
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