The PGA Tour will head to Texas for two events before the Masters.
It will begin with the Texas Children’s Houston Open March 26-29 from Memorial Park. This is the sixth year the course has hosted the event and the third time in the spring.
While not a PGA Tour signature event, a number of stars are in the field, including world Min Woo Lee, Chris Gotterup and Brooks Koepka.
In 2019, Tom Doak completed a significant overhaul of Memorial Park with input from Koepka. It is one of the longer PGA Tour courses and has significant runoffs around the green.
Distance will be rewarded, as well as being able to avoid bogeys.
Scottie Scheffler withdrew on Tuesday morning, so Lee now has the best odds to win at +1200.
I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, Proximity: 200+ yards and Strokes Gained: Putting.
In addition, I will be favoring course history more so than other weeks.
Texas Children’s Houston Open Prediction
Min Woo Lee is expected to win the Texas Children’s Houston Open with a 7.69% implied probability, according to betting markets. Chris Gotterup is next at 5.88%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Texas Children’s Houston Open Best Bets
Adam Scott Outright Winner (+3300)
Even though he is in his mid-40s, Scott has some sneaky distance off the tee.
Scott checks the boxes, ranking 13th in ball speed on the field and 28th in driving distance. He also ranks 12th in bogey avoidance and 13th in proximity from 200+ this year.
Additionally, he logged top-20 finishes at Riviera and Bay Hill before a T-56th at TPC Sawgrass, so he enters in solid form.
Scott’s last PGA Tour win came in 2020, and it feels like he’s due to win at least one more time.
Brooks Koepka Top-10 Finish (+200)
This will be Koepka’s sixth start after returning to the PGA Tour in January, and he’s logged three straight top-20 finishes, highlighted by a T-9 at the Cognizant Classic.
That was a similar field to this week’s, as it lacked the star power of other events he’s played in.
As long as his putting continues to improve, Koepka should fare well at a course he helped renovate a few years back.
Michael Thorbjornsen Top-20 Finish (+140)
Thorbjornsen checks a lot of boxes for this week, especially when it comes to his power.
He’s also coming off a T-22 at the Players Championship, but that includes a 77 in the final round when he was in the final group.
Look for him to mirror Matt Fitzpatrick in rebounding nicely following the Players Championship and be in contention this week in Texas.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for weekly PGA Tour odds and more golf betting opportunities.
Whether you want to bet on tournament winners, build multi-sport parlays, or place live bets, there’s endless entertainment for every type of golf fan. And keep an eye on sportsbook promos — including a sportsbook welcome offer for new customers — throughout the year for Odds Boosts, contests, and more.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
