Texas Children’s Houston Open Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

There have been plenty of times over the last four years when Scottie Scheffler entered a non-major/PGA Tour signature event and essentially tipped the entire scale in his favor.

I’ve called it the Scheffler Conundrum: You don’t really want to bet anyone outright at a sub-4/1 price, even if he is the world’s best player, but you don’t really want to bet anyone else who’s competing against him, either.

There doesn’t seem to be that concern for this week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open, as Scottie is coming off three straight finishes outside the top-10, with the last two also being outside the top-20.

He remains a largely unplayable +350 in the outright market, but the fear of betting any other player in a field which also includes him isn’t as palpable right now.

[Editor’s note:] Scheffler withdrew on Tuesday morning.

Of course, maybe that just means we’re all about to get burned.

Even if he doesn’t feel the need to show us something, Scheffler undoubtedly wants to prove something to himself in his final start before the Masters Tournament. His performance hasn’t been terrible by any stretch of the imagination; it just hasn’t lived up to the expectations he’s set over the past few years.

That’s all my way of saying we should tread carefully, especially considering Scottie owns a trio of runner-up finishes in Houston since the move to Memorial Park Golf Course back in 2020.

I’m not playing him in any markets to start the week, but I’ve seen this movie before. Whether it’s a CJ Cup Byron Nelson or a Procore Championship, places where we might believe there’s value further down the board, Scheffler simply shows up, plays better than everyone else and renders those other outright tickets irrelevant.

Onto the players I will cautiously be playing – and yes, there’s a major theme this week. As I’ve written here, there are a few tourneys on the PGA Tour schedule that suit the biggest hitters more than this one at 7,475 yards, with plenty of statistical evidence to back up that advantage.

Let’s get to the selections, starting with a couple of the PGA Tour’s longest hitters.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Marco Penge (+3300)

Well, it took a few months, but we’ve officially reached Penge SZN on the PGA Tour. Regular readers know how bullish I was on the Englishman entering his rookie campaign in the U.S. after winning three times on the DP World Tour last year. The truth is, his game is a better fit for the longer courses over here, as he already ranks seventh in driving distance and first in SG: Off the tee.

And while his debut season featured just a single top-60 result in his first five starts, last week’s share of fourth place just might be the momentum push he needs to start pushing things into a higher gear. There’s no doubt Penge has some superstar qualities; if he can contend on a relatively shorter track such as Innisbrook, he can do it at Memorial Park, too.

Now, I’m not gonna lie: When I initially started outlining this preview last weekend, I assumed Penge was going to be my aggressive play in this market, considering he was THREE TIMES this price just a week ago. That does give me plenty of hesitation that we’re chasing a number which dipped so much after that title contention.

There might not be value in this price, but I still don’t want to miss out on a player I’ve liked for a while who’s starting to gain momentum and knows how to win. 

Aggressive Pick: Michael Thorbjornsen (+3300)

This pick was coming whether Matt Fitzpatrick successfully closed out a bounce-back title at last week’s Valspar Championship or not, but that victory certainly didn’t hurt the narrative.

For years, I’ve maintained that even close-call heartbreakers are more advantageous to professional golfers than, say, a share of 27^th place. And there’s a good reason I say this: It’s because that’s what some of the game’s best players have so often insisted, too. Getting into the heat of the battle and failing to win might lead to a few more sleepless nights than finishing well off the pace, but it’s that experience which can be so beneficial to a player – whether they’re already a major champion like Fitzpatrick or trying to win for the first time like Thorbjornsen.

Two weeks ago, the 24-year-old got himself into the final pairing at The Players Championship, only to post a final-round 77 and finish T-22. That one undoubtedly hurt, but I loved what he had to say even before that final round, his prescience ringing true in the aftermath. “Just keep trying your best,” he said. “If you keep putting yourself in that position, it’s going to happen at some point.”

There’s little concern that Thorbjornsen will someday win at this level, though it does remain to be seen whether that first triumph will happen sooner rather than later. For a player who checks every relevant box at this tournament, I love the idea of sticking with the recent form and backing another player who’s fresh off a tough ending to a title contention.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Brooks Koepka (+500)

I honestly don’t know whether serving as a player consultant to Tom Doak during the 2019 renovation of Memorial Park gives Koepka an advantage on this course, but I’m pretty sure of this: It can’t hurt. The reality is, even if Brooks wasn’t involved, this is a venue which should suit his game at a time when we should be paying attention.

Perhaps the crescendo to his recent high-level ball-striking performances will come at yet another major – maybe as soon as two weeks from now – but he’s shown an ability to find his way onto leaderboards based almost solely on the strength of his iron, posting three consecutive top-20 finishes.

This might be a massive if, but if he can get that putter heated up to something better than right around field average, Koepka is going to pick off a victory against one of these less-than-signature fields, which would elevate him into the big-boy events where he wants to be. I don’t mind playing the +2500 outright number, but I’ll take him here for a top-five result. 

Aggressive Pick: Tony Finau (+900)

Believe it or not, I’ve been waiting to use Finau here, at a place where he owns a win and a runner-up in his last three appearances. While there’s a chance you haven’t heard his name much recently, he hasn’t been nearly as mediocre this season as you might think, posting three top-20s and four top-30s in eight starts so far.

None of those have sniffed cashing a top-five ticket, but I’ve long believed Finau is a course horse who tends to play well on some of the same venues year after year – as he suggested before last season’s edition of this one.

“I like the look of the golf course,” he said. “I think as a golfer, a lot of us are very visual players and there’s certain golf courses that just look good to our eyes compared to others. I would say this is one that to me looks pretty good to our eyes.”

I’ll admit that there might be a little wishful thinking for this prop, so if you prefer to play him for a more conservative top-20 type of wager, I have no problem with that, but I do think he owns some equity in each of these markets this week.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Min Woo Lee (+160)

I’ve never been a big fan of playing defending champions, for the same reason I’ll never be the guy who walks up to a roulette wheel, sees a certain number just hit, then places a few chips on that same number. Granted, the wheel’s probabilities don’t change based on what’s already happened, but players aren’t inanimate objects – human emotions are involved and it’s tough to chase a title by trying to replicate that same performance.

All of that said, I’ve been very impressed with Min Woo so far this season, as he’s been inside the top-40 in all six starts and owns three finishes of 12^th or better already. As I’ve written multiple times over the past few weeks, he simply looks like a more mature player now than he did previously and with his talent, that alone might be enough to vault him into the next echelon.

At a tournament which has been on the PGA Tour schedule since 1946, only Vijay Singh (2004 and ’05) has gone back-to-back here. It wouldn’t shock me if Lee becomes the second, but I’d rather play him for another leaderboard finish instead. 

Aggressive Pick: Max Greyserman (+550)

I really liked Greyserman at the Valspar last week, but there was just one small problem – he decided to WD on Tuesday afternoon. Presuming that wasn’t an injury-related withdrawal – as of the time I’m writing this, I haven’t heard otherwise – then there’s no reason to not like him again this week, at a place where he was T-7 two years ago. With five runner-up finishes since the summer of 2024, his ceiling might be more valuable than his floor, but another top-10 here feels safer after that recent WD.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Keith Mitchell (+200)

As someone who’s had way too many outright tickets on Mitchell over the past several years, I’m going to claim minor victory in backing down to only a top-20 this week. Of course, it would be dumb luck – or maybe just dumb – if this one cashes only because Mitchell finally wins for a second time in his PGA Tour career.

He’s shown flashes this season, with a pair of top-11 finishes already and no MCs in nearly six full months, and a driver-heavy course should favor one of the game’s best with the big stick in his hands, as evidenced by a pair of top-20s in his last three starts here. If you, like me, are a fan of his game, there are few courses which should suit him as much as this one, so don’t hold back and wait for another week. 

Aggressive Picks: Jordan Smith (+275) and Adrien Dumont de Chassart (+350)

These are unabashedly a few plays on guys who looked very good at times during the Valspar last week. Smith posted the second-lowest score of the final round, a 5-under 66 which gave him a PGA Tour career-best solo third-place result. On the DP World Tour, where he won twice – once in 2017, once in 2022 – he had a reputation as a player with perhaps a limited ceiling, but regularly lofty floor, which should give us optimism to play him in this market.

As for ADDC, kudos to the NBC broadcast team for highlighting his slow play during Sunday’s final round, which included a pair of triple-bogeys and saw Fitzpatrick, his playing partner, become increasingly exasperated as the afternoon continued. That alone might render him a new Public Enemy No. 1, but sluggish or not, he’s got plenty of game and is starting to show he can hang at this level.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Kurt Kitayama (-165)

This is admittedly very conservative for a player whose outright number is just +3300, but Kitayama hasn’t done any better than cashing a pair of top-40s in his two starts at this event and has four such results in seven starts this season. There’s some value here as part of a top-10/20 ladder, considering he’s gained strokes off the tee in 15 of his last 16 starts and with approach in all 16. Like most of the players on this list, he’s a big hitter whose skillset should suit this course.

Aggressive Pick: Jimmy Stanger (+240)

I listed him for a top-40 last week in his hometown of Tampa and I’ll go right back to him after a T-30, which was his third straight top-40 result. Now that he’s figured some things out, keep an eye on Stanger. Not suggesting he’ll ever become a world-beater, but I’ve got him in the same category as guys like Austin Smotherman and Danny Walker, all of whom look the part when you watch their swings.

Texas Children’s Houston Open First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Davis Thompson (+6600)

Last year, Thompson often posted poor bookends to his tournaments, ranking 124^th in R1 scoring average and 132^nd in R4 scoring, but top-40 in the middle two rounds. So far this season, he’s 30^th on Thursdays, but not better than 90^th in any other round. I’m a fan of his game, but there are reasons to not completely trust him when he gets into contention, based on past experiences. That said, he opened with a 66 at the Valspar last week and can certainly go low in the opener once again.

Aggressive Pick: Michael Brennan (+8000)

After Brennan won last fall straight off the Double-A minor-league circuit, there was some belief that he’d become something close to an instant star, that’s yet to manifest itself, with no top-25s and just a single top-40 in eight starts this season. Ranking third, though, in driving distance shows that there’s a ton of offensive firepower. Even though his R1 scoring doesn’t suggest he’s on the verge of cashing an FRL ticket, if you’re looking for a single-round ceiling at a big price, he’s not a bad option.