The American Express is this week, Jan. 22-25, in La Quinta, California.
It isn’t a PGA Tour signature event, but some big names are in the field, highlighted by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. In addition, other top players include Ludvig Aberg, Ben Griffin, Robert MacIntyre and Patrick Cantlay.
This is a unique week as the event is played on three courses — Pete Dye SC, Nicklaus TC, La Quinta CC. Players play all three courses for the first three rounds, and then the final round is exclusively at the Pete Dye SC.
ShotLink data is only on the Pete Dye Stadium Course, which makes handicapping this event more difficult, as there is only data for one of the three courses.
Entering the event, Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +300.
When it comes to key metrics, I will be prioritizing Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, Par-5 Scoring, and Strokes Gained: Putting (poa).
*odds as of Jan. 20
The American Express Prediction
Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win The American Express with a 25% implied probability, according to betting markets. Ben Griffin is next at 4.76%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
The American Express Best Bets
Sam Burns Outright Winner +2800
Admittedly, this was a very tough week to handicap, given the three-course setup and not a lot of data to go on.
Burns performs well in a few key metrics, but I am really focusing on his putter. When he gets hot, he is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, and this event has turned into a putting contest in the past. That would work in Burns’s favor.
He has played well here, logging three top-11 finishes, including two T-6s.
The 29-year-old, who made the Ryder Cup team last fall, hasn’t won since the 2023 season, so he is more than due.
Ben Griffin Top-10 Finish +175
Griffin was certainly an option to win outright, but this is a little safer.
He’s improved each of his three years playing in this event — T-32, T-9 and T-7 — and is coming off a solid start to the year with a top-20 finish at the Sony Open.
When it comes to key metrics, he ranks inside the top 10 for all of them, except Good Drives Gained, per Fantasy National.
Michael Thorbjornsen Top-20 Finish +188
I expect this to be a breakout season for Thorbjornsen. He certainly has the game, and this will be his first full season working with caddie JJ Jakovak, who was previously with Collin Morikawa.
History has shown that longer hitters have been able to have success at this event, and Thorbjornsen is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour.
He also recently played and excelled as an alternate in TGL with Boston Common Golf, so he could have some added confidence heading into his first event of the 2026 season.
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