The American Express Golf: 4 PGA Expert Picks this Week

The PGA Tour’s California swing begins from La Quinta with The American Express tournament. 

Players face four rounds at three different courses: the Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West (Nicklaus Course) and La Quinta Country Club. 

Current golf odds at BetMGM have Scottie Scheffler (+275) as the pre-tournament favorite. Scheffler holds a distant lead over the next two players: Ben Griffin and Ludvig Aberg (+2000). 

Let’s dive into the selections. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

PGA Tour Expert Picks: The American Express Golf Tournament

Ben Griffin (+2000)

Griffin has improved with each subsequent start at The American Express. After a T-32nd in 2023, he recorded a pair of top-10 finishes in his previous two appearances. 

He arrives in California fresh off a T-19th at the Sony Open. While Griffin’s ball-striking at Waialae left something to be desired, this course rotation should suit his eye. 

Over the last 12 months, Griffin ranks sixth in good drive percentage on “short” or “very short” courses (min. eight rounds). 

He also ranks fifth in greens in regulation percentage on such setups. Furthermore, Griffin places second to Scheffler in SG: TOT under “easy” or “very easy” conditions. 

Within that sample, Griffin ranks 18th in birdie or better percentage. 

Over the last 12 months, Griffin sits T-3rd in bogey avoidance on easy setups, including first in the field over the last six months. 

Dating back to August, Griffin owns some of the best form in the field. Over his last seven events, Griffin has finished 20th or better in every start. 

Pair those finishes with his record in Palm Springs, and I predict Griffin improves week over week. 

Alex Noren (+5000)

In four starts at the American Express, Noren finished 25th or better twice. Within that sample, the Swede’s best finish came in 2020 (T-14th). 

Noren places eighth overall in my mixed condition model, though. He simultaneously posted strong results on the DP World Tour lately, winning twice since August 2025. 

In terms of key stats, Noren ranks fifth in driving accuracy on less-than-driver setups. All three courses in the Amex rotation are very short, requiring accuracy over distance. 

He also places 14th in SG: TOT on “easy” or “very easy” setups and 12th in bogey avoidance percentage over the last two years. 

If there’s a slight concern with Noren, it’s that he ranks 53rd in birdie or better percentage over a two-year sample. However, he ranks 26th and 13th in the last 12 months and last six months. 

Within the latter six-month sample, Noren ranks third in the field when he plays from the fairway. Given his aforementioned accuracy record, I predict Noren contends this week. 

Si Woo Kim (+3000)

I don’t love the price here on Kim, a former winner at this event. However, a lot of evidence exists that he’ll play well this week. 

Kim finished T-11th last week at the Sony Open. That finish came despite Kim losing over a stroke PER ROUND with the putter. 

However, he posted his best SG: APP output per round since Aug. 2025. His +1.62 SG: APP output per round qualifies as his third-best measured output since Jan. 2025. 

Generally speaking, ball-striking proves much more consistent than putting. Additionally, Kim has historically putted very well at this event. 

In his last five appearances at the Amex, Kim lost strokes putting only once. Prior to a disappointing T-51st last year, the South Korean never finished outside the top-25. 

Entering this week, Kim ranks seventh in my model, including seventh in driving accuracy on less-than-driver setups. 

He also places eighth in SG: TOT on “easy” or “very easy” courses. Lastly, he places 16th in GIR% on short or very short setups. 

Given those outputs, Kim appears well-suited to produce a second straight quality finish. 

J.T. Poston (+6000)

Over the last two years, Poston recorded his best finishes on incredibly easy setups. 

Only five players in this field gained more strokes than Poston. He also ranks inside the top-15 in both birdie or better and bogey avoidance percentage on “easy” or “very easy” courses. 

Included in that sample is a ton of recent success at the Amex. In his last four starts at this event, Poston never finished outside the top-25. 

That stretch includes three straight finishes inside the top-12. His best finish over that sample is a T-6th in 2023. 

A bigger sample size revealed some struggles with Poston in key stats. Over the last two years, he ranks 45th in both SG: APP and GIR% on “short” or “very short” courses. 

But Poston played two events on qualifying courses over his last six months. In those two events, he ranks 10th and first in those metrics. 

Those tournaments – the RSM Classic and Wyndham Championship – saw Poston finish no worse than T-11th. 

Even considering the longer-term metrics, Poston ranks ninth in my model. Accordingly, I predict he owns higher win equity than these odds suggest.