The American Express Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

The bad news for anyone trying to pluck a winning outright ticket for this week’s American Express tournament – and there are some very enticing prices next to the names of some very intriguing players, as I’ll get to shortly – is that Scottie Scheffler will make his return to competition, a scenario which often renders those other picks useless.

The good news, however, is that this tournament for Scheffler has been like the Los Angeles-based event was for Tiger Woods in his prime, albeit on a lesser scale. The world’s best player owns just a single top-10 in five career starts in Palm Springs, which doesn’t sound too awful until you consider that his top-10 rate is better than 70 percent over the past four seasons.

Scottie’s personal white whale might not be the potential career slam-clinching U.S. Open after all. It might be The AmEx.

Perhaps not having a tourney at Kapalua has made some top players antsy; maybe the pull of dome-like conditions is too strong to ignore. Whatever the case, this week’s field is headlined by Scheffler, but he’s hardly the only big name in the desert, as Ben Griffin, Sam Burns, Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay, Robert MacIntyre, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sepp Straka and Harris English are also in the top tier on this odds board, giving it more stars than usual.

For the uninitiated – and that might include a few of the names listed above – this tourney features three guaranteed pro-am rounds on three different courses, the Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta CC and the Nicklaus Tournament Course, with the Stadium hosting the entire final round. 

The theme here is goin’ low, as every winner since 2007 has been north (or south, depending on how you look at it) of 20-under, with Straka winning last year at 25-under.

While Scottie and those other names at the top will get the early-week pub, this is one that instantly screams value much further down the board.

Wyndham Clark (+8000), Brian Harman (+9000), Michael Kim (+9000) and Max Homa (+9000) all have shown some win equity and own bigger-than-usual prices this week. Max Greyserman (+10000) and Taylor Moore (+35000) were both top-10 here last year. Andrew Novak, Chris Kirk, Johnny Keefer and Mac Meissner are all +12500. 

Multi-time winners Nico Echavarria (+15000) and Austin Eckroat (+17500) are even longer. Michael Brennan (+17500) was the toast of the PGA Tour just a few months ago. Davis Riley (+20000) was last week’s 54-hole leader. Jhonattan Vegas (+20000) is a former champ here. Tom Kim and Tony Finau (both +20000) have each fallen on hard times, but have prices we’ve perhaps never seen for them. 

Even guys like Andrew Putnam (+30000) and Cam Davis (+40000) make some sense if you think about ‘em long enough.

When we consider that dating back to 2019, there have been more winners of The AmEx north of triple-digits (four) than otherwise (three), chasing some of these bigger numbers feels like a solid strategy.

As usual, I’ll offer up a conservative and aggressive pick for every market, starting with a few outrights that were tough to pin down.

The American Express Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Michael Thorbjornsen (+4500)

Golf tournaments are funny sometimes. There are weeks when a tourney could’ve had a completely different winner and wholly separate narrative if it lasted 71 or 73 holes, but the musical chairs stop at 72 and the winner gets a trophy while those who came close often get criticized for it. This isn’t unique to golf, obviously.

If NFL games lasted 59 or 61 minutes, we might’ve seen some different teams winning in the playoffs over the past few weeks. The point is, there’s a predetermined ending for any of these contests and sometimes it takes a little luck to be on top at the right moment. All of which brings me to this specific selection.

As I write this, at 10:32 ET on Monday morning, Thobjornsen is my pick, though if you’d asked me at 10:22 ET or again at 10:42 ET, there’s a decent chance I would’ve offered a different name. Last year, I picked Davis Thompson for this one (spoiler alert: he didn’t win) and Thorbjornsen follows the same general principle – essentially, a big-hitting ball-striker who makes a ton of birdies.

He similarly reminds me a bit of Chris Gotterup, who won last week’s Sony Open on a course which theoretically suited him worse than this one does for Thorbjornsen. I’ll readily admit there are players at prices both shorter and longer who intrigue me in the outright market this week, but I think it’s going to be a big year for the Stanford product and I’d rather buy in before the price gets too steep. 

Aggressive Pick: Sahith Theegala (+12500)

If the Thorbjornsen selection was difficult, this one was downright mind-numbing after considering nearly all of the players I listed in the intro above. I’m still a bit skittish that Theegala isn’t quite all the way back from the injuries which minimized him last season, but I love the idea of taking him on his preferred West Coast, where he’s enjoyed some success in the past.

Last week, he finished just T-31, but ranked fifth in birdies for the week, which feels like a precursor of bigger things to come at this one, when the ability to fill it up and put a bunch of circles on the card is often the greatest determining factor for a title contention. Even as I’m writing these words, the names Novak and Stevens continue to interest me – especially at longer odds – but I’ll stick with Theegala in hopes that he can quickly regain his 2024 form. 

The American Express Top-5 Prediction

Conservative/Aggressive Picks: Rico Hoey (+1100) and Pierceson Coody (+1200)

Picture this scene: You’re at a really good ice cream parlor – the type that’s got dozens of special flavors. And you’re really in the mood for ice cream, since you haven’t had much lately. Do you opt for vanilla or chocolate, which you could really get anywhere? Or do you order something a little more exotic?

This week’s event feels like one of those places with a ton of flavors that sound delicious. I think I’m losing the plot a little if I refer to Hoey and Coody as the salted caramel hazelnut cookie dough of this field, but I do like the idea of making a few selections that are more exciting and fun than others. Maybe I’m a little too Gotterupted from last week, but the idea of big-hitting birdie-makers just feels like it makes a ton of sense this week.

Neither of these guys were especially great last week – Hoey was T-50 and Coody was T-13 – but I love the upside here, just like the Thorbjornsen pick. On a week when many of the top players are making their season debut, just having four rounds under their belts should help these two. 

The American Express Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Patrick Cantlay (+250)

I suppose in the above analogy Cantlay is the very definition of vanilla. But hey, they’re called “conservative” picks for a reason. In his last six AmEx starts, Cantlay owns four top-10 results, including a T-5 last year. If you’re seeking a “safe” play amongst the top tier, I think he’s your guy, especially since the likes of MacIntyre, Aberg and Fitzpatrick don’t usually play here and Henley and Griffin were both a mere T-19 last week, despite plenty of pre-tourney fanfare.

There’s no real thing as a make-or-break season for high-level professional golfers – it’s not like Cantlay is going to lose his playing privileges or fail to qualify for any big events – but it does feel like this is a year where he either proves he’s a top-five type of player who can win a major or is content hovering somewhere around the top-20. I don’t think the latter is true whatsoever, so I like playing him here as he gears up for a successful campaign. 

Aggressive Pick: Max Greyserman (+650)

Another chase pick here, as like Cantlay, Greyserman also challenged for this title last year, ultimately finishing T-7, six shots off the pace. I love that this guy plays with some moxie and a little chip on his shoulder, perhaps even more so than fellow New Jersey native Gotterup.

Neither of them struggle for confidence and while Greyserman’s first few seasons on the PGA Tour would be considered a rousing success by any measure, I’m guessing he’s still the type who’s ticked off because he hasn’t won yet. It’s easy to like that passion when so many other players fail to show it on a regular basis.

He’s become a bit all-or-nothing, with two runner-up finishes and nothing else inside the top-30 in his last 10 starts, but at a fairly big top-10 price, I’ll take a chance on this ceiling showing out again. 

The American Express Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Sam Stevens (+375)

The more I look at Stevens’ +12500 outright number, the more I’m convincing myself that he’ll be on my card for a winning ticket by Thursday morning. He’s shown a solid floor, as well, posting 10 top-25s in 31 starts last season. That said, four of those top-25s were outside the top-20 and last week’s T-31 missed cashing top-20 tickets by a mere two strokes. This doesn’t feel like a reach, but if he fails to get here by a stroke or two again this week, don’t say you weren’t at least warned ahead of time.

Aggressive Pick: Taylor Moore (+800)

With a potentially contracted schedule next year leading to a greater amount of limited-field events, Moore is the exact type of player whom I’m worried could get lost in the system. He’s obviously good enough to win at the highest level, taking the Valspar Championship just three years ago, and with a dozen top-10s in four full seasons. Last year, though, he finished 121st on the FedEx Cup points list, which would’ve been enough to keep his full status in any previous season, but left him on the outside looking out.

A trip back to Q-School didn’t help and so now he’ll need to thrive in whatever limited starts he can get. The answer to status and start issues, of course, is #playbetter. There will be a lot more familiar names in KFT events this year, even those who have proven to be able to hang on the PGA Tour level. I wouldn’t be surprised if Moore is the type of guy who can play his way back sooner rather than later. 

The American Express Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Sudarhsan Yellamaraju (market not yet available)

I often host The Wrap on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio, our postgame show after the live broadcast of that week’s PGA Tour event. During these shows, I’ll usually speak with one of our commentators who’s on-site, watching golf throughout the entire week and witnessing more shots than pretty much anyone else in-person. I love asking these folks to name a player who didn’t win or even necessarily contend, but impressed them.

On Sunday evening, Jeff Eisenband clearly understood the assignment, answering this question by speaking in glowing terms about Yellamaraju, a 24-year-old from Ontario who finished T-13 at the Sony. I spoke with him late last year after he’d clinched his PGA Tour card through the KFT and while most guys are ecstatic in these situations and sound like they’re ready to unwind with a little party, Yellamaraju sounded like a dude who was ready to head to the first tee and keep going.

He didn’t get a whole lot of pub south of the Canadian border before getting his card, but I think he’s going to be a valuable floor option for finishing position bets, at least for the time being.

Aggressive Pick: Isaiah Salinda (market not yet available)

Just another player who ticks a handful of boxes for me, as Salinda is a West Coast guy who hits it a long way and can make birdies in bunches, ranking 37th in birdie average last season. He’s also finished top-40 in three of his last nine starts, which doesn’t exactly spark full confidence, but at least offers hope that we can hit a nice plus-money play for just a top-40 here.