The Leap: PGA Tour Players to Reach Another Tier in 2026

I’ve been writing this annual column for so long that it’s now old enough to legally drink, which feels appropriate considering it’s yielded reasons for both celebratory cocktails and sorrow drowners, though I won’t admit which is ahead in that race.

When it comes to predictive analysis, it feels too simplified to argue that an elite-level player is going to enjoy yet another strong season or that a journeyman will continue to struggle.

The idea of “The Leap” – you know, the thing you’re reading right now – is to offer a prognostication on players who will “leap” into another echelon, whether that means a guy winning for the first time or a winner becoming a top-20 player or a top-20 player becoming a major champion.

As you’ll recall, in last year’s edition of this column, I correctly predicted J.J. Spaun to win a major and Ben Griffin to become a top-10 player.

(No, I didn’t, but I’m really hoping that in the time between that paragraph and this one, you went to Google and found that I loved Si Woo Kim to challenge for a major and Sahith Theegala to make the Ryder Cup team. Whoops!)

I’ve had better Leap performances, but I’m running a few back this year which might’ve just been a bit premature before.

With the PGA Tour starting this week, I’ll keep each of these PGA Tour-related instead of branching out to other tours, as I’ve done in the past.

Enjoy it, bookmark it. And as Sam Beckett used to say, let’s hope the next Leap will be the Leap home. Or something like that.

PGA Tour Players to Reach Another Tier in 2026

Viktor Hovland and Cameron Young

The Leap: Major championship winners

Winning a major ain’t easy. Winning a major for the first time, though, has proven immensely difficult recently. Last year, Spaun was the lone first-time major champion; the year before, Xander Schauffele was the only one, though he added another just a few months later. It hasn’t always been this way, however – and we don’t have to go back too far to understand that. 

There were two newbies in 2023, three in ’22, two in ’21, two in ’20 (with only three majors contested), two in ’19, two in ’18, three in ’17, four in ’16 and two in ’15. We have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a year when each of the major champions – Rory McIlroy twice, Bubba Watson and Martin Kaymer – had already won one. That’s two dozen first-timers in just over a decade, which should at least give us some optimism that we’ll see a few more this year. 

There are plenty of candidates, such as Ludvig Aberg (who was saddled with this unfortunate distinction in last year’s edition of this column), Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay and Robert MacIntyre – not to mention another Spaun-like ascension popping up out of seemingly nowhere – but my money is on Hovland Young. Elsewhere on this site, you can find my favorite futures plays for major championships this year and I won’t be bashful about the fact that I’m all-in with listing each of these players in both places. 

Hovland is a different kind of cat, to say the least – the type of guy who’d rather bury his head in a philosophical tome or debate conspiracy theories than discuss any sort of golf history.

When it comes to his own game, he’s often so pessimistic that he’d have you thinking he’s a hack; in fact, it was two years ago, during his third-place finish at the PGA Championship, that he told me he’d almost withdrawn because he didn’t like the way he’d been hitting the ball. 

As it stands, that was one of his four top-four results in the past four years – one per season – and it’s starting to feel like a little more self-belief could (and should) lead to bigger and better things in the very near future.

As for Young, I’m not going to make a Scottie Scheffler comparison, but there are some definitive parallels between Scheffler’s performance at the 2021 Ryder Cup and subsequent Masters victory and what Young’s performance at last year’s Ryder Cup might bring. He went 3-0-1 at Bethpage, defeating Justin Rose in the opening match of Sunday’s singles session, and on the heels of his first career PGA Tour victory at the late-season Wyndham Championship, there could be enough momentum for Young to parlay this success into a major title. 

As with Hovland, it might be less about the technical/physical performance than the mental side of the game. Young has often appeared mopey when things aren’t going his way, but he looked like a new man in the last several months of last year, and that attitude adjustment might be just what he needs to prosper in the biggest events.

Marco Penge

The Leap: Top-20 on the OWGR

If this were just a decade ago, plenty of people who consider themselves golf fans would be asking, “Who’s this Marco guy I keep seeing on PGA Tour leaderboards?” Sure, there will still be some of that, but as I’ve submitted since PASPA was passed in the spring of 2018, legalized sports gaming has led to a collective investment which makes us more informed about the events and individual athletes we’re watching. 

As such, you probably already know that Penge was a breakout star on the DP World Tour last year, winning three times and earning a PGA Tour membership. And yes, I realize the irony of mentioning sports gaming in the same space as Penge, whose improbable run began with a suspension for unknowingly betting on golf tournaments in which he wasn’t competing. Cue the “One of us!” GIF, as always. 

This isn’t just about him being a sports bettor and it isn’t even just about him coming off a breakthrough season. Penge is one of the rare players promoted off the Euro circuit in recent years whose game theoretically matches up much better to the big ballparks of the stateside schedule. He opened a lot of eyes with a top-30 finish at Quail Hollow during last year’s PGA Championship, which was just his third major championship start. 

We can still argue that he coulda/shoulda been part of the European Ryder Cup team, though I don’t think Luke Donald would make any alterations in retrospect. In any case, the 27-year-old seems like a superstar waiting to happen on the biggest stage. Nothing would shock me about his impending success this season, whether it comes in the form of numerous strong finishes, a signature event victory or even a major title. At 29th on the OWGR right now, a move into the top-20 doesn’t seem like much of a leap, but it could happen before he even arrives in Augusta for the first time this April.

Keith Mitchell

The Leap: Tour Championship competitor (Top-30 on FedEx Cup points list)

I’ve been writing this pre-season piece for so long that it predates strokes gained statistics, back to a time when simply looking at other rankings had to suffice. One of my faves back in the day was the All-Around category, which is a compilation of player rankings in every other major statistic. 

Like SG: Total, this one doesn’t lie, either, as Scottie Scheffler was easily No. 1 here for a second consecutive year. Last season, though, it wasn’t Rory McIlroy or even Ben Griffin or J.J. Spaun who finished runner-up. It was Mitchell, a player about whom I’ve been singing praises for years. In fact, every January I write some version of these words: He not only has the numbers to show he’s a terrific player from tee-to-green, he passes the ol’ eye test in that he has the look of a guy who should be a top-20 type of player in the world. 

And yet, here we are entering his ninth full season as a PGA Tour member and his odometer remains stuck on just a single victory – the 2019 Honda Classic. There’s no secret as to what’s been holding him back and even Mitchell has admitted it. His putting has ranked outside the top-80 in each of the past three years. Simply put, the flatstick needs to improve in order for him to get to that next level. 

Even so, with his driver/iron prowess, I still hold out hope that a few spike weeks on the greens can lead to some big-time results. While it’s disappointing that he again won’t start the year qualified for any of the signature events, perhaps playing a different schedule than most of the best players can lead to those better results. It’s more than a bit underwhelming that he’s never finished better than 40th in the FedEx standings, but I’d be surprised if that doesn’t change soon. As usual, my money will be on him.

Pierceson Coody

The Leap: Top-50 on the FedEx Cup points list

Late last year, while interviewing Coody on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio, I asked him if he knew which player was leading the PGA Tour’s all-important SG: Off the tee statistic. After all, if strokes gained metrics have taught us anything, it’s that the long game separates players more so than the short game, essentially deeming the ol’ “Drive for show, putt for dough” axiom forever antiquated. 

Coody didn’t have an answer, so I had to let him know that he’d just recently surpassed the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy to climb atop that category, a position he hadn’t relinquished when the season was finally over. None of which is to suggest that short game and putting don’t matter at all, because he’ll need to improve on his rank of 130th on the greens if he is to enjoy long-term success, but I’ll take my chances with a guy who smashes it long and straight, giving himself more opportunities to score than anyone else after the tee shot.

Rico Hoey

The Leap: PGA Tour winner

True story: Steve Stricker once claimed the PGA Tour’s Comeback Player of the Year award in back-to-back campaigns, which either proves a) he had a lot to come back from; or b) those who voted had a dark sense of humor. The reason I bring it up here is that for the second consecutive year, I’ve listed Hoey to make a leap into the winner’s circle. He spent much of last season hitting the ball like Ben Hogan, but putting it like Hulk Hogan, ranking last on the PGA Tour on the greens. A late-season switch to a long putter, however, seems like just the antidote that was needed, as he posted six finishes of 22nd or better in his final seven starts of the fall. 

And so, I’ve again listed him to win – and if others were writing the same column, my guess is there wouldn’t be many who’d leave Hoey off a list of players to make a move this year, whether it means winning or just enjoying more high-level consistency. If that long flatstick keeps working for him the way it did in the autumn, Hoey should have a very successful season and beyond.

Thorbjorn Olesen

The Leap: PGA Tour winner

Sometimes it takes a deep-dive into the analytics to find a hidden gem who’s on the cusp of bigger and better things. Other times it’s just a quick perusal through a single statistical category. The greatest barometer we have for judging a player’s performance – not his results, but his performance – is the SG: Total metric, which is exactly what it sounds like. 

This stat measures how a player has fared against his peers over the course of the entire season. In 2025, only one guy without a PGA Tour win on his resume finished in the top-25 – and yep, that was Olesen, who ranked 18th on this list, ahead of Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama and Maverick McNealy, among others. And yet, while his performance was noteworthy, his results were not, as he posted just three top-10s and six top-25s in two dozen starts to finish a lowly 120th on the FedEx Cup points list at the end of the regular season. 

In any previous year, Olesen would own full status based on that number, but only the top-100 retained full playing privileges for this season. No worries, though: He finished top-30 in four fall tournaments, including a T-3 at the Bank of Utah Championship, to move to 96th in those standings and keep his card. 

That was a massive step toward this progression in his career; now I expect the results to start matching his performance. With the elite players largely battling in the bigger events, there should be plenty of opportunities for those in the next tier and I expect this eight-time DP World Tour winner to show he can do it on this side of the pond, as well.

Nicolai Hojgaard/Rasmus Hojgaard

The Leap: PGA Tour winners

There are really no hard and fast rules when it comes to golf betting – except this one: If you’re going to back one Hojgaard, you’ve gotta back ‘em all. OK, it’s not a requirement, but you just know that the week you put money on Nicolai, it’s going to be Rasmus who cruises to a title and the week you play Rasmus, it’ll be Nicolai who triumphs. 

Nobody needs that kind of stress and though it’s a great sob story to tell your buddies at the 19th hole, just do the right thing and play ‘em both. The 24-year-old twins from Denmark have essentially been dancing a two-step between ‘em as to which one has been better ever since turning pro more than a half-decade ago. 

Rasmus won three times before Nicolai claimed the first of his three DP World Tour victories, but it was Nicolai who first made the Ryder Cup team in 2023, only to be replaced on the roster last year by Rasmus, who was better in Europe but not as proficient in PGA Tour events. 

It’s so difficult to tell them apart that when one of their caddies was once asked how he tells them apart, he said he waits to see if he smiles and if he does then it’s not his guy. I don’t know that each Hojgaard is going to win this year, but I know they’re both capable, I know I can rarely tell them apart and I know I don’t want to be on the wrong side of that bad beat, so I’ll just back ‘em both.

Michael Thorbjornsen

The Leap: Presidents Cup team member

I’ll start this one by admitting I’m less bullish about it happening than some of the other leaps on this list. That isn’t because of any second-guessing of Thorbjornsen’s abilities; it’s because the others are merit-based while his inclusion on the U.S. squad going to Medinah might rely on captain Brandt Snedeker having the gumption to place a rookie on the roster, which hasn’t happened very often in recent years, with most Ryder/Presidents captains leaning on those who have been-there and done-that, even if their current body of work pales in comparison with some younger players. 

Last year, the 24-year-old posted top-10 finishes in nearly 20 percent of his PGA Tour starts – a rate which was better than plenty of other candidates who might get consideration for this team. If there’s a criticism of Thorbjornsen to date, it’s that he too easily fits the formula of today’s up-and-coming stud in that he mashes the ball off the tee, hits his irons pure and will need to rely on a few spike weeks with the putter to hit his ceiling. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with any of that and if his putting can just get to a level that’s above-average, he’ll do enough good things this season to seriously grab Sneds’ attention.