3 Best Open Championship First Round Leader Predictions

Below, bettors can find my Open Championship first-round leader predictions based on British Open odds.

A word on strategy first. Personally, I prefer supporting players with a strong profile for the tournament. In the last 11 Opens, nine winners finished 10th or better after the first round.

To help identify potential FRL’s, I looked at players who generated the most scoring opportunities under difficult approach conditions where it’s also difficult to hit greens.

3 Best Open Championship FRL Picks 2026

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800)

I wrote about how this course favors Fitzpatrick in my British Open picks. Entering the year’s final major, Fitzpatrick ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average.

The irons and putter have worked spectacularly for the 2022 U.S. Open winner recently. He gained on approach in three of his previous four events, clearing +1 three times on average.

At the RBC Heritage – a correlative course featuring thick rough and small greens – Fitzpatrick opened with a 65. It placed him two shots behind the lead after Thursday.

He opened well at the 2026 U.S. Open, too, firing a three-under 67 on Thursday. It placed him three back of Wyndham Clark with 54 holes left.

As for the putter, Fitzpatrick spiked to +1.15 or better twice in his last four. He also ranks third in SG: Putting on slow greens over the last 30 rounds.

Lastly, Fitzpatrick ranks third in scoring opportunities inside 15 feet when it’s “difficult” or “very difficult” to gain on approach this year.

Ludvig Aberg (+4000)

Aberg set the pace at the RBC Heritage and showed recent strong performances at the difficult setups.

He leads the Open field in birdie or better rate when SG: APP conditions are difficult.

Over 36 rounds this year, he ranks sixth in birdie or better from the fairway and seventh in scoring opportunities inside 10 feet. The Swede also places 13th in bogey avoidance rate.

If you examine his nine opening rounds under those conditions, the results remain encouraging. Aberg places second in birdie or better rate and ninth in scoring opportunities inside 10 feet.

Across all nine opening rounds, Aberg posted a 27.8% birdie or better rate five times and cleared 20% on six occasions.

In addition to his performance at Harbour Town, he finished two shots off the first-round lead at Colonial, another correlative setup.

With his total driving acumen back on display at Birkdale, Aberg offers strong FRL candidacy.

Gary Woodland (+10000)

The prediction here is largely driven by the price on a player that has performed well at comparable courses.

Woodland sits 14th in first-round scoring average on the PGA Tour this year. He also paces the Open field in SG: OTT when it’s “difficult” or “very difficult” to gain.

Big penalties for hitting the rough often lead to Woodland’s best off-the-tee results. This year, he cleared +1 SG: OTT five times in six starts with a high rough penalty.

Iron play is a very mixed bag. However, he still ranks 19th in scoring opportunities inside 10 feet in nine opening rounds where it’s “difficult” or “very difficult” to gain on approach.

One such example came at the 2026 RBC Heritage. Woodland opened with a 65, two behind Aberg’s pace. He also shot a five-under 65 at Colonial, one shot behind six players.

The 2026 RBC Heritage marks one of Woodland’s best iron performances under difficult conditions. In his first two rounds, he cleared +1.8 SG: APP in both.

We also saw spike iron potential early at Shinnecock Hills. There, he cleared +1.5 SG: APP in his first two rounds.

Those factors lead me to consider Woodland at a lofty number despite a poor Open record.