Tough to Find Longshots at the PGA Tour Signature Events

They started as “designated events” three years ago. They were briefly referred to as “elevated events” soon thereafter. And they’ve now evolved into “signature events,” nomenclature which appears to have stuck – at least until the next rebranding.

Whatever we call ‘em, the idea remains the same: Limited-field tournaments which feature only the best of the best on the PGA Tour.

This year’s schedule once again consists of eight PGA Tour signature events, starting with this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and followed next week by the Genesis Invitational.

If you’re looking for some potential winners – and who isn’t? – we can find some definitive themes amongst the first two dozen of these tourneys over the past three seasons.

The first shouldn’t surprise you: Scottie Scheffler has been dominant.

He’s won six of these signature events so far – exactly one-quarter – as nobody else has claimed more than two.

The world’s No. 1-ranked player is actually ahead of Tiger Woods’ pace at the erstwhile World Golf Championships, which essentially served as a forerunner to the signature events. Woods dominated the WGC series, winning 18 of the 84 events which were contested, but that 21.6 percent rate is a few points lower than Scheffler’s number.

Scottie is similarly holding serve with Tiger in relation to his victory percentage over the next-winningest player, as Woods’ total of 18 at the WGCs was exactly three times more than Dustin Johnson’s six.

The next theme of the signature events isn’t much of a surprise, either: The best players tend to win ‘em.

I mean, the rationale for this one is pretty simple. If only the best of the best are playing, there’s not much opportunity for the outsiders to break through.

Besides Scheffler, five players have won multiple signature events – and they’re each major champions. Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley and Wyndham Clark are tied with two wins apiece, meaning there have been nearly as many multiple winners as those who have only won one.

The last of these themes might qualify as a bit of an eye-opener.

Of the 24 signature events, 16 have been won by a player who opened the week at 35/1 odds or shorter.

OK, so that part isn’t the eye-opener. The interesting thing to note here is that nine of these tournaments have indeed been claimed by a player with longer odds.

Russell Henley was 40/1 before winning last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational and Sepp Straka was the same price entering the Truist Championship just a few months later.

Clark was 60/1 prior to his first signature win, then also 60/1 before his second – despite having won a major championship in between.

Matsuyama was somehow 80/1 before the first of his two and Bradley was just as bizarrely the same number before the first of his two, as well.

And then there’s the really big prices.

Kurt Kitayama was a massive 200/1 before winning the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational and Chris Kirk owned the same odds for The Sentry to start the following season.

Moral of the story: You can find a longshot at these limited-field events every once in a while to cash a big ticket, but as expected, when the best players are all competing together, more often than not it’s one of those guys who’s taking home the trophy on Sunday evening.