TPC Twin Cities: Key Winner Stats at 3M Open

Like many of the Midwest PGA Tour stops, TPC Twin Cities presents a birdie fest for players.

Kurt Kitayama won last year at -25. It marked the second time in the previous three years that the winner finished at -24 or higher.

Only one of the previous seven victors finished beneath -16 for the week (Cameron Champ). Here’s a look at the common statistical situations amongst those winners.

3M Open Key Betting Statistics at TPC Twin Cities

Off The Tee

Above all else, players need to avoid right misses off the tee at TPC Twin Cities. Water danger comes into play on 13 holes, with right misses getting punished the most.

In two of the last three years, players averaged rounds under par playing from the left rough. Never over that span have they averaged rounds under par from the right rough.

Golfers are showing that left misses are better over a larger sample. The left miss tendency averages a 6% higher miss compared to the tour average, while a right miss finished 6% under.

Playing from the fairway will give players the best chance. In good news, it’s relatively easier to find the short grass as players averaged a 63.2% fairway rate over the last five years.

Comparatively, the PGA Tour average sits just above 60%.

Approaching the Green

Since 2023, players have inherently enjoyed the most success playing from the fairway. Players hit greens at a 77.2% rate or higher each of the last three years, with two years clearing 80%.

Players still hit greens from the rough at a higher rate than the PGA Tour average. Over the last five tournaments, the rough GIR percentage sits at 54.9%, up from a 51.7% Tour average.

To win, players usually need to demonstrate a spike approach potential. In 2025, Kurt Kitayama cleared 3+ SG: APP over the weekend to lead the field for the tournament.

Jhonattan Vegas, the 2024 champion, posted three rounds above 2+ in SG: APP. He finished eighth in the category for the week while ranking fourth in SG: Ball Striking (OTT + APP).

In 2023, Lee Hodges won with four rounds over +1 SG: APP and three rounds over 2+. All but one of the previous seven winners ranked eighth or better in SG: APP for the event.

Around the Green

Another defense at TPC Twin Cities is volatile greenside bunkers.

A long-term sample reveals difficult scrambling conditions from the bunkers. Over the last five years, players scrambled from the bunkers 48.3% of the time, down from a 51.9% Tour average.

However, recent editions saw superior results from the sand. In each of the last two years, players posted a 54% scrambling rate or higher from the traps.

Short-grass scrambling followed a similar trend. From 2021-23, competitors averaged a 49.9% scrambling rate. That benchmark has risen to 59.6% since 2024.

Either way, both outputs saw a downward trend from the PGA Tour average of 62%.

Par 4 Scoring & Birdie or Better Rate

Most consistent over the last five tournaments is the requirement to score on the 12 Par 4s.

The PGA Tour average for Par 4 birdie or better rate sits at 17.2%. Over the last five 3M Opens, players finished below that average two times, once by 0.2%.

If the wind fails to pick up, players tend to score easily. In 2025, players enjoyed a 21.4% BoB rate on the par 4s and a 52.8% BoB rate on par 5s.

It marked the third straight year players birdied the three par 5s at least 50% of the time. In 2021 and 2022, the par 5s averaged a 38.3% birdie rate.