Travelers Championship Picks: 5 Players to Fade

After writing my weekly preview article for BetMGM, I often file a secondary piece on five longshots with some value in various golf betting markets.

Not this week.

Sure, I can find some potential investments further down the Travelers Championship board, as Denny McCarthy (+6600), Ben Griffin (+12500), Mackenzie Hughes (+15000) and Emiliano Grillo (+20000) all interest me a bit at different levels, but with another short field of just 71 players and a winning score which could reach 20-under, I likely won’t venture past 50/1 for any outrights.

So, instead of offering longshots on whom I’m only lukewarm, I’m going to list five players to fade in an effort to help that process of elimination entering this one.

5 Players to Fade At Travelers Championship 

Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)

Over the past couple of years, since the implementation of PGA Tour signature events, I’ve often used a rule of thumb to decide which players I’m fading: If a certain guy never played a specific tournament before it was mandatory, I don’t want him now that he’s only showing up to fulfill a requirement.

Matsuyama had never played the Travelers until he had to, teeing it up in Connecticut for the first time last year. While his T-13 result was certainly respectable, the fact that he rarely plays the week after a major – he’s done so just three times following his last 16 major championship starts – should help us deduce that even after a sixth-place finish at last week’s U.S. Open, he’s worth leaving alone for this one. 

Justin Thomas (+3300)

Something is wrong. Something’s a little broken. One of the game’s top talents when he has his best stuff, Thomas showed signs of bouncing back from missing the FedEx Cup playoffs last year, posting results of 12th or better in six of his first 11 starts of this year. He finished T-33, though, at the short-field Memorial Tournament and then shot 77-74 to miss the cut at Pinehurst last week.

I don’t think that whatever is broken isn’t fixable – and it might not take very long – but on a course where his two career top-10s have been offset by six other finishes of 30th or worse, it’s hard to believe he makes those corrections immediately. 

Jordan Spieth (+5000)

Astute readers will note that I listed Spieth as an aggressive outright play for last week’s U.S. Open, but as I wrote then, it was less about believing he could win and more about chasing a big price on a guy with plenty of upside. Well, it was more floor than ceiling for him, as he posted four over-par rounds and finished in a share of 41st place.

From everything I’m hearing, Spieth is pressing in trying to find his best stuff right now – which makes sense, considering he’s not the type to simply sit back and hope the A-game returns. There might be some sentimental thought toward playing him at the site of one of his most dramatic wins in 2017, but I’m not even playing that upside for the time being.

Will Zalatoris (+6600)

There are some who will see this massive price on Zalatoris – nearly four times longer than he was in Houston just three months ago – and blindly take him on name recognition alone. I’ll admit that it’s intriguing, but a deeper dive shows that one of the game’s best iron players has lost strokes on approach shots in three of his last four starts. For a guy who’s rarely going to make up for below-average iron play with a great short game and putting, this one should be an easy fade, despite the number.

 Adam Scott (+6600)

Count me among those both surprised and impressed that Scott has actually increased his playing schedule in his forties. If you’d asked me a few years ago, I would’ve thought he’d be employing more of a Tiger Woods calendar than a Sungjae Im one. At some point, he’s going to get rewarded for the grind; I don’t know that he’s got another major title in him, but I think he’ll win another decent-sized tourney. It won’t be this one, though.

For the same reason I listed Matsuyama as a fade above, this is one Scott would probably rather skip, but after eschewing the Memorial a few weeks ago, he’s gotta show. The Aussie played here for the first time back in 2010, then took an 11-year leave of absence. While his last two appearances have each resulted in top-20 finishes, I tend to think that might be about his ceiling for this one.