Travelers Champioship Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Just as Harbour Town annually feels like the perfect antidote to a pressure-packed Masters from the previous week, the friendly confines of TPC River Highlands serve as a similarly laid-back atmosphere following all the stress that comes with competing in a U.S. Open.

Not that this one should be overlooked, of course.

This week’s Travelers Championship is the eighth and final PGA Tour signature event of the season and it speaks volumes that plenty of non-superstars have authored a John Hancock to the list of winners. So far, we’ve had Collin Morikawa, Jacob Bridgeman, Akshay Bhatia, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Kristoffer Reitan and J.T. Poston claim these titles, with at least a few of them serving as massive surprises.

The bigger shock, though, is less about who’s won and more about who hasn’t. For a schedule which is set up to showcase a rich-get-richer philosophy, the names Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele, Fleetwood, Aberg and Thomas have yet to show up on top of a single signature leaderboard, which suggests that impending changes might not completely do what they’re supposed to do moving forward.

Over the next few days – perhaps even by the time you’re reading this – PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp is expected to announce more signature events, or Track 1 events, on next year’s schedule and beyond. The idea is that the more tournaments featuring the best players competing against each other, the better the entertainment product is for the fans.

It’s difficult to disagree with that notion, but as these events have taught us again this year, it’s impossible to manufacture results. If the biggest superstars don’t play their best golf in these events, well, that’s how golf works sometimes. And that’s alright.

Moving on to this week, where I’ll start my selections with one of those aforementioned superstars who’s yet to win this year, but could be on the verge of his next title.

Travelers Championship Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Justin Thomas (+2500)

Since the beginning of May, it’s felt like Thomas is building toward something bigger, perhaps still feeling like he’s playing a bit of catch-up after missing the first two months of the season while recovering from last fall’s back surgery.

He’s finished inside the top-25 in each of his last six starts, including a T-17 last week at Shinnecock. And unlike some others, he seems to thrive in the more low-key event after the U.S. Open, posting top-10s in each of the last three years, while compiling a scoring average of 66.33 in those 12 rounds.

Aggressive Pick: Sahith Theegala (+6600)

We’re officially too deep into the season to insist that a specific player is “absolutely going to win” before it’s over. Somehow, there are only 12 events left in the schedule – and two of those are alternate events running concurrently with a bigger one. All of which is pretense to explain why I won’t guarantee a Theegala win at some point, so instead I’ll put it this way: It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if it happens.

Last week at the U.S. Open, he led the field in SG: Tee to Green, while finishing T-11. That came despite one of the poorest putting performances in the field, but if the flatstick can heat up just a little bit, this makes sense as the site of his second career win, as he shoulda/coulda/woulda got it done here four years ago, when he double-bogeyed the final hole to lose by two strokes.

Travelers Championship Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+300)

It doesn’t seem like that long ago we – and by “we,” I mean “I” – were questioning why Fleetwood hadn’t carried his Tour Championship momentum into this season and perhaps started playing with some more confidence.

Over his last five starts, he now has four results of 11th or better and seems to have turned a corner from a player who wasn’t quite getting the most out of his game to one who might be ready to win again. It would be a karmic one this week, considering how he got leapfrogged by Keegan Bradley on the final hole last year.

Aggressive Pick: Collin Morikawa (+500)

Last year was a tumultuous one for Morikawa, as he failed to close out the Arnold Palmer Invitational, became indignant with the media in the aftermath, fired his caddie and his game never really seemed to recover. This year has been tumultuous in a completely different way.

After being forced to WD from The Players on his second hole due to a back injury, he gutted out a T-7 finish at the Masters, then finished T-4 at the RBC Heritage the next week for good measure. He also recently became a father for the first time and just as we saw with Tyrrell Hatton on LIV Golf not long ago – not to mention so many other previous examples – the so-called “nappy factor” could lead to his next victory very soon.

Travelers Championship Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Sam Burns (+188)

I wasn’t on-site at the end of last week’s U.S. Open, but I’ve spent a lot of time hanging around during the final rounds of major championships and interviewing players after they’ve failed to win. Just recently, I noted that it’s seemed like many don’t get as upset in those visceral moments as those of a previous generation – just an observation, not a criticism – which is why it was “good” to see Burns in tears after coming so close on Sunday, if only because it shows how much it means to him.

It should be a bit difficult for him to get fully motivated for this week, but he’s simply playing too well to be too far from contention at this one.

Aggressive Pick: Brian Harman (+375)

I’m not sure if I’m more excited about Harman’s current form or his course history. He’s now gained strokes in nine of his last 10 starts, including during a T-32 finish at Shinnecock. This week he heads to a course where he’s been inside the top-10 in each of his last five starts and seven of his last eight. That’s way more than a coincidence.

Even if he wasn’t playing well, I’d probably bank on history repeating, but the fact that he’s been swinging it nicely should result in yet another title contention for Harman this week.

Travelers Championship Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Eric Cole (+240)

Just because the Travelers Championship is a signature event featuring the best players, you won’t find many in this week’s field who didn’t also compete in last week’s U.S. Open. Cole is one of the very few and there’s reason to believe that a week off might serve as an advantage over those who enter this one without much left in the tank.

He was riding a heater before the recent RBC Canadian Open, posting five top-15 results in six starts leading into that MC. Last year, he opened with three sub-70 scores at TPC River Highlands before withdrawing on Sunday due to illness. This week offers an opportunity to make up for that.

Aggressive Pick: Corey Conners (+250)

As one of the game’s better ball-strikers, you know Conners is off his game when the irons are unkind, as they were when he lost strokes on approach in four of six starts leading into the U.S. Open. Simply put, he’s not good enough around or on the greens to hit the ball average and still contend.

So, why is he listed here? Because the irons were much better last week, when he ranked seventh in the field. There’s reason to believe Conners can still salvage what’s been a lackluster season to date, but it needs to start very soon.

Travelers Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+2800)

I’m admittedly going off very little here, but it isn’t nothing. Two months ago, Aberg followed a T-21 result at the Masters by opening with a 63 at the RBC Heritage just a few days later. At the risk of reading way too much into that singular performance, I do believe there’s a non-zero chance that he might simply play better golf when that major championship weight has been lifted and he can relax a little more. Following last week’s very quiet T-17, I’m an FRL buyer on lightning striking twice.

Aggressive Pick: Nick Taylor (+8000)

I listed Taylor as one of my FRL plays for the U.S. Open due to his strong Thursday performances throughout this season, and while that idea didn’t work out, I’m going right back to it for this one. He doesn’t have a great record at this event – I asked him why last year, considering it seems like a course which would suit his game, but he didn’t have a great reason – however, he did open with a 66 that left him just four shots off the lead.