Truist Championship Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Another week, another PGA Tour signature event.

On the surface, it would appear the PGA Tour has a problem — perhaps not in the abundance of rich-get-richer tournaments, but at least in the perceived lack of interest from those stars.

Last week it was Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg and Robert MacIntyre who skipped the Cadillac Championship; this week, Scottie Scheffler heads the list of those eschewing the Truist Championship.

If limited-field, no-cut, free-money opportunities aren’t enough to entice some of the biggest names, then it would appear there’s a flaw in the current system.

Those in the know, however, have defended this as a one-year scheduling quirk, so I’m willing to look beyond the bubble and give this a little time, though I’m interested to see whether the proposed two-track format of future schedules will only enhance the discussion of which players are skipping each week, rather than highlighting those who are there.

That agenda can be pushed to the back burner for now, as we turn our attention to the Scottie-free festivities at Quail Hollow, where the most recent winner was, well, Scottie himself.

That occurred at last year’s PGA Championship, as the venue took a year off from its usual hosting duties of this event, just as it did when it held the Presidents Cup in 2022.

There are few secrets at Quail — a 7,583-yard brute which places an emphasis on ball-striking, not unlike Doral’s Blue Monster last week.

In fact, don’t be surprised to see plenty of overlap on the leaderboard from that one to this one. My selections start with one of those players who rested last week, but you’ll find the names of a few of those weekend contenders here soon enough.

Truist Championship Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+1400)

Cameron Young might not have taught us anything during his meteoric rise over the past nine months, but he at least reminded us of something. Prior to his initial PGA Tour victory at last year’s Wyndham Championship, the man with seven career runner-up finishes had earned a rep as a player who too often came close, but couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.

At least, that might’ve been the prevailing public sentiment, but those inside the professional game understand that the contrary is usually true. The reality is, the more a player gets into contention, the more he learns from those experiences and the better he’ll be equipped for the next one.

Young is the best recent example of this process, but he’s far from the only one to kick the door down, then continue running through more of them. Aberg doesn’t totally fit this profile, since he’s already won a pair of PGA Tour titles, but again, if we listen to public sentiment, we’d believe he’s a guy who can’t get it done, based on a few close calls already this year.

Personally, I’d rather back this type of player — one who’s been in the heat of some recent battles and is simply building up scar tissue along the way. I still believe Aberg is far from reaching his ceiling, which should be a consistent top-three/four player in the world who eventually wins major championships.

None of that can happen this week, but those close calls are going to equate to a victory in the very near future and with four top-fives in his last five starts, this feels like a great place for it to happen.

Aggressive Pick: Ben Griffin (+3500)

Over the years, professional golf has seen plenty of one-hit wonders — players who competed well above their baseline for a single tournament, never reaching those heights again. There are undoubtedly fewer instances of one-year wonders, which would be players who peaked for an entire season without ever coming close before or after.

The main takeaway here is that any pro at the highest level can look like a world-class player for one week, but prolonged elite performance doesn’t often dry up when the calendar changes. All of which should serve to explain why there shouldn’t have been too much concern over Griffin after last year’s breakthrough campaign when he failed to mirror those results over this season’s first four months.

Following a start which saw nothing better than 19th place in his first 11 events, he finally looked like the 2025 version of himself once again last week, finishing solo third at the Cadillac Championship.

I’ll admit this play feels a little too chase-y, but Griffin proved last year that he’s a momentum type of player, twice posting top-fives in back-to-back starts. I like the idea of buying when both the literal and proverbial irons are hot, especially in his home state, on a course where he finished T-8 at last year’s PGA Championship.

Truist Championship Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Xander Schauffele (+300)

Quick: Who’s the third-best player in the world right now? If you answered Cameron Young on the heels of another convincing victory, you’re probably in the majority. If you went with Matt Fitzpatrick, winner of three titles this season, you likely have some company there, as well.

If you said Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm, well, you might just be trying to stoke some flames, but each is a worthy response. There aren’t many who’d answer this question right now with Schauffele, even though it wasn’t that long ago when he was such an easy answer that he might’ve been closer to No. 2 than No. 4.

This is a fickle game and collectively we are fickle observers of it, often interpreting “best” as which player is performing the best at this exact very moment. Point is, while it might be difficult to argue it’s Schauffele, I don’t think he’s as far from this spot as most would seem to believe. He’s finished 12th or better in his last four starts and top-25 in his last seven.

There haven’t been too many serious title contentions during that time, but he’s trending in the right direction and this could be a very big fortnight for him. Take nothing away from Young or Fitzpatrick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re again discussing Schauffele as the world’s third-best player very soon.

Aggressive Pick: Rickie Fowler (+600)

Fourteen years ago, a 23-year-old Fowler *finally* lived up to the hype, defeating Rory McIlroy and D.A. Points in a playoff at Quail Hollow to win for the first time on the PGA Tour. You probably could’ve gotten a decent plus-money number at the time taking the under on O/U 6.5 wins, though it’d be wise to cash out that hypothetical wager now, since he could be heading toward a seventh victory soon.

All these years later, Rickie remains one of the more beleaguered PGA Tour pros around, simply because his win-to-commercial ratio continues to trend in the wrong direction. Obviously, that’s not a fair criticism. If any other player was offered the marketing opportunities that he’s been offered — with the same residuals — they’d jump at it, so knocking Fowler for being on your TV screen more than any other six-win, 52nd-ranked player is a fool’s errand.

The truth is, at age 37 he’s probably never going to live up to the enormous expectations thrust upon him all those years ago, but he’s still playing very solid golf, including a pair of top-10s in his last two starts. It would be something of a full circle moment if he can return to Quail Hollow this week and match that initial victory, but even just climbing this leaderboard would be a story in itself. I like it to happen — and when it does, nobody will be able to complain that a guy in contention is being shown too much on TV.

Truist Championship Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Adam Scott (+250)

Check out only the ball-striking analytics from this season and the blind profile might have you thinking Scott’s numbers are those of, say, Collin Morikawa or Xander Schauffele. Specifically, it’s been his iron play which has really stood out, as he leads the PGA Tour in SG: Approach, led the field at Doral in that category and hasn’t lost strokes to the field with those clubs since last year’s Open Championship.

There’s a reason why Scott and Justin Rose are the lone players in their mid-40s still playing elite-level golf and it has less to do with talent than work ethic. Rose’s renown in that area has been much publicized, but Scott isn’t any less impressive. Let’s face it: Five years ago, he could’ve taken his green jacket and millions of dollars and sat on a tropical beach for the rest of his life — or worse yet, left for LIV Golf. Instead, the man has done the opposite of all that.

While becoming more involved in PGA Tour politics, he’s toiled at plenty of lesser tourneys in hopes of — as he told me last year — winning another major championship. His commitment is commendable and his performance has been remarkable, considering he’s in his 27th season as a professional.

It remains to be seen whether he can claim a second major, but I firmly believe the Golf Gods will repay Scott with another big one at some point, perhaps even a signature event like this one. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a popular outright selection and I’d love to see it happen, but I’ll put my money on yet another first-page-of-the-leaderboard performance instead.

Aggressive Pick: Sam Burns (+275)

I can’t tell you how many times over the years I’ve been on a player to win, only to see him get it done the following week. I can’t tell you, that is, because I’ve never totaled ‘em up, a practice which would probably leave me sick to my stomach. Anyway, I didn’t list Burns in last week’s preview (you’re welcome!), but he was a late addition to my card, coming off four straight top-25 results.

Spoiler alert, he didn’t do it again, parlaying an awful opening round into a T-38 finish. That said, I still think there’s reason to back him again for this one, at a course where he was T-13 two years ago and T-19 in last year’s PGA. If those numbers have you considering only a top-20 instead, I can dig it, but I’ll be closer to adding him as an outright, since I know how often I’m one week off. Well, actually I don’t know… you know? And I don’t want to know, either.

Truist Championship Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Alex Smalley (+180)

A few years ago, there were a handful of players all in similar parts of their careers and similar ages on whom I was very bullish. Griffin was one; he turned himself into one of game’s top players last season. Jacob Bridgeman was another; he’s taken a massive step forward this season, especially with his first career win at the Genesis Invitational. Ryan Gerard was on that list, too; he’s a winner now and owns a couple of runner-up results this year.

And then there’s Smalley, who other than not having the PGA Tour hardware on his mantle, has largely progressed at a level comparable to the others. He’s finished 21st or better in each of his last three starts, not including a runner-up finish alongside Hayden Springer at the Zurich Classic, so he’s certainly trending in the right direction.

Aggressive Pick: Denny McCarthy (+275)

If you’re new to golf betting, you’d probably try to apply some logic to the process. Long course? Take the big hitters. Shorter course? Take the precision guys. And yes, that largely works, but it’s hardly a foolproof plan.

Over the years, bombers such as Gary Woodland and Tony Finau have played some of their best golf on short courses. And then there’s McCarthy, hardly one of the game’s longer guys, but one who tends to thrive at places like Muirfield Village and here at Quail Hollow. He was T-8 at last year’s PGA Championship and he’s similarly been top-eight in each of the last two editions of the Truist that were hosted at Quail.

It hasn’t been a great season for McCarthy to date, but he’s shown signs lately of playing better and I like him for a top-20 in this limited field.

Truist Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Si Woo Kim (+3000)

Ever since Si Woo broke out of his shell at the Presidents Cup two years ago — he explained to me in an interview early that week how shy he is, then proceeded to do the Steph Curry night-night thing in front of a packed house — I’ve thought he was destined for bigger and better things, not unlike the Ryder Cup bump of Scottie Scheffler before him or Cameron Young since, though admittedly not at those levels.

What I never saw coming, though, was a Si Woo with such a consistent high-level floor as he’s shown this year. This is a player who not so long ago would enjoy a few spike weeks on leaderboards with tons of MCs mixed in, but this season he’s finished top-10 in half of his starts and top-five in one-third of them.

Coming off yet another strong performance, I’m itching to have a FRL ticket on Si Woo here, at a place where he was T-16 at this event two years ago and T-8 for the PGA last year.

Aggressive Pick: Sahith Theegala (+5500)

The last time Theegala posted the low score of a final round was at the Arnold Palmer Invitational back in March, a day when he led the field in approach play. I offered him up for FRL honors at the next week’s Players Championship, thinking he could keep that momentum going, and that’s exactly what he did, taking the opening-round lead, albeit tied with four others at the top.

On Sunday at the Cadillac Championship, he did it again, posting an 8-under 64 during which he led the field from tee to green. That feels like a pretty strong signal to play him for another FRL at this one. He doesn’t have a strong record at Quail Hollow, with nothing inside the top-50 in three starts, including a WD last year, which is keeping me from a four-round investment here, but I still think he can go low for a single day. Here’s hoping it’s Thursday