U.S. Open Betting: Jon Rahm Odds, Analysis, Prediction

In less than a week, the U.S. Open will return to The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, after it was last held at this venue 34 years ago. 

Of course, the USGA makes this one of the most challenging golf events on the calendar. With tight fairways, thick rough, minuscule greens, and the propensity for blind shots, The Country Club will make this year’s U.S. Open golf betting predictions particularly tough.

Spaniard Jon Rahm will hope to hold onto the title he claimed at Torrey Pines last summer, but he’ll have to compete with an incredibly strong field to do so.

Jon Rahm U.S. Open Golf Odds

Rahm’s odds to win the U.S. Open (+1400) have him as one of the favorites, behind Justin Thomas (+1200), Scottie Scheffler (+1200), and tied with Rory McIlroy (+1400).

(Odds as of June 9.)

Jon Rahm U.S. Open Golf Analysis

Of course, Rahm is one of the top players in the world, and he finished one stroke ahead of Louis Oosthuizen to claim his first career major victory at the U.S. Open in 2021. He comes in following a win at the Mexican Open in May and is currently ranked first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, greens in regulation percentage, and fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Given the above, it’s easy to see why the U.S. Open golf betting odds have Rahm down as one of the favorites in 2022.

However, the Spaniard has had a pretty hit-or-miss PGA Tour this year. He’s finished T-27 or worse in three of his last five starts, including T-48 in the PGA Championship.

The biggest concern for Rahm coming to The Country Club is that his short game has been unusually weak this year. He ranks 21st in Strokes Gained: Approach and 74th in putting.

In addition, the small, cross-slope greens on this course will be particularly challenging and the stubborn bluestem grasses in the rough mean that only absolute precision on the fairways will cut it.

Additionally, Rahm has never played this course before, there are several blind shots that need to be played, and there’s no forgiveness for deep/wayward drives. 

Jon Rahm U.S. Open Golf Prediction

Golf betting is never an exact science, as amateur 20-year-old Francis Ouimet proved at this very course when he walked across the road from his house and won the U.S. Open in 1913.

Despite the odds giving Rahm a serious shot at this year’s U.S. Open title, he isn’t going to make it onto my betting card as an outright winner. 

Managing Director, Rules and Open Championships at the USGA, Jeff Hall, said that he thinks this course, “will differentiate those who are playing their best versus everybody else.” 

I tend to agree, and I simply don’t think Rahm is currently at his best.