U.S. Open Picks 2026: 1 of These 7 Players Will Win

Xander Schauffele reacts on the fourth green during the first round of the Memorial golf tournament in Dublin, Ohio, Thursday, June 4, 2026.
(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
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It’s officially U.S. Open week and one of the best of the year for golf betting.

There are plenty of storylines to follow, including Scottie Scheffler going for the career Grand Slam, Rory McIlroy looking to win his second major of the year and a number of young stars looking for their first major championship victory.

Scheffler has the best odds to win the U.S. Open at +550.

Picking an outright winner is extremely hard, but there are some trends to know for this week at Shinnecock.

U.S. Open Betting Strategy

Since this is a major championship, naturally, one of the best players in the game is going to win.

Like most events, current form does come into play, so it’s important to look at how a player is performing at the moment.

Shinnecock hasn’t hosted a major since 2018, when Brooks Koepka won at +1, so some of the players in the field have not played the course before.

Even though there’s not much course history to go off of, it is a U.S. Open, so tough conditions with thick rough are expected. Do not expect many low scores this week, as it will be about limiting bogeys and taking advantage of the limited birdie opportunities.

Picking A U.S. Open Winner

Last 10 Winners Were Ranked Inside Top 25 of Data Golf World Rankings

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Jon Rahm
  4. Cameron Young
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick
  6. Tommy Fleetwood
  7. Xander Schauffele
  8. Ludvig Aberg
  9. Russell Henley
  10. Si Woo Kim
  11. Patrick Cantlay
  12. Sam Burns
  13. J.J. Spaun
  14. Maverick McNealy
  15. Collin Morikawa
  16. Chris Gotterup
  17. Harris English
  18. Wyndham Clark
  19. Bryson DeChambeau
  20. Adam Scott
  21. Justin Thomas
  22. Jake Knapp
  23. Viktor Hovland
  24. Ben Griffin
  25. Kurt Kitayama

These are the top 25 players, according to Data Golf.

8 of Last 10 U.S. Open Winners Had a Previous Top 25 at the Event

  1. Scheffler
  2. McIlroy
  3. Rahm
  4. Young
  5. Fitzpatrick
  6. Fleetwood
  7. Schauffele
  8. Aberg
  9. Henley
  10. Cantlay
  11. Burns
  12. Spaun
  13. Morikawa
  14. Gotterup
  15. English
  16. Clark
  17. DeChambeau
  18. Scott
  19. Thomas
  20. Hovland
  21. Griffin

Eliminated: Kim, McNealy, Knapp, Kitayama

8 of the Last 10 U.S. Open Winners Had a Top 10 Finish in the Previous 2 Majors

  1. Scheffler
  2. McIlroy
  3. Rahm
  4. Young
  5. Schauffele
  6. Henley
  7. Burns
  8. Morikawa
  9. Gotterup
  10. Thomas

Eliminated: Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Aberg, Cantlay, Spaun, English, Clark, DeChambeau, Scott, Hovland, Griffin

8 of Last 10 U.S. Open Winners Had Posted Top-12 Finish in Previous 2 Starts

  1. Scheffler
  2. McIlroy
  3. Rahm
  4. Schauffele
  5. Henley
  6. Burns
  7. Gotterup

Eliminated: Young, Morikawa, Thomas

Based on these trends, the winner will either be one of those seven players. Keep this in mind when making your U.S. Open picks this week.

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About the Author Read More @RyanHannable

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”